Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
I’m not sure what Russell Westbrook has to do to get priced above $11,000 on DraftKings. His price seems to have hit a ceiling, but he certainly deserves to be more expensive. He has been tremendous over the past month, scoring at least 55.75 DraftKings points in 15 of his past 17 games, and he’s scored at least 69.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four. Overall, his average of 1.70 DraftKings per minute over the past month is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. He remains the safest investment in fantasy hoops.
Value
The Nuggets are extremely shorthanded in the backcourt at the moment. Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Monte Morris all remain out of the lineup with long-term injuries, and P.J. Dozier will join them on the sidelines Wednesday. That should leave a healthy amount of playing time for Shaq Harrison, which makes him an intriguing value play at the absolute minimum. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and minimum-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.12 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Austin Rivers is also worth some consideration at the position.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are in one of the best spots of the day. They’re taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves, and their implied team total of 121.25 points ranks third on the slate. That makes Ja Morant a very strong option, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.17 over his past 10 games, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of 1.87 is one of the top marks at the position.
Jrue Holiday is another point guard with an excellent matchup on Wednesday. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.06 vs. the Wizards, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 121.5 ranks second on the slate.
This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Bucks, so make sure to monitor their injury report using the Labs Insiders tool. There’s a chance that Holiday sits, but there’s also a chance that some of his teammates sit. That would give Holiday a nice boost in value.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Delon Wright delivered a stud-like 55.0 DraftKings yesterday for the Kings, and he has the chance for another monster performance on Wednesday. De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton remain out of the lineup, and it’s possible that Harrison Barnes could be ruled out again as well. The Pacers have also struggled on the defensive end recently, so this is a nice matchup as well.
Value
Terence Davis also stands out for the Kings. He played nearly 30.8 minutes yesterday vs. the Thunder, and he responded with 25.5 FanDuel points. He’s projected for a similar workload on today’s slate, and he’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. That makes him a strong option at just $3,800 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
Donte DiVincenzo is another potential option for the Bucks on Wednesday. He’s seen a massive price decrease on DraftKings recently, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, but he’s logged at least 29.2 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s coming off 32.75 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Nets, so he’s a prime buy-low target.
The Celtics are going to be without at least one key contributor vs. the Magic. Jaylen Brown has already been ruled out, and Tristan Thompson has been downgraded to out with a strained pectoral. That means Marcus Smart should be looking at a few additional minutes. He’s also increased his usage rate by +3.0% with Brown off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.89 FanDuel points per minute. He’s a nice value at just $6,200 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has seen a large price decrease recently. His salary has dropped by -$1,500 over the past month, and targeting players like Harris when they’re priced down is an excellent strategy in NBA DFS. Harris has owned a comparable salary in 19 previous games this season, and he’s averaged 38.39 DraftKings points per game in those contests. That kind of production would make him an excellent value at his current salary.
Value
Rudy Gay has had a nice career. He’s not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s evolved into an extremely productive reserve player for the Spurs. He’s finished with at least 35.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he posted a usage rate of 31.3% in his last outing. Don’t expect him to log a ton of minutes vs. the Jazz, but he should still be able to return value given his average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Oshae Brissett could once again provide excellent value if the Pacers are shorthanded. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.63 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he remains very reasonably priced at $6,500. He’s currently projected for 34.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he should continue to see a large workload if the Pacers’ remain shorthanded. They currently have Malcolm Brogdon, Edmond Sumner, Goga Bitadze and Jeremy Lamb listed as questionable, while Jakarr Sampson and Myles Turner remain sidelined.
Michael Porter Jr. has been asked to carry a large workload for the Nuggets’ given their injury situation, and he’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on FanDuel. His nine Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Power Forward
Stud
The Bucks just swept the Nets in a two-game set, and you could tell that they took those games very seriously. The Nets played those contests without James Harden, but they are still the favorites to win the NBA title this season. Milwaukee has been a bit of a disappointment after dominating the regular season the past two years, so they clearly wanted to prove something to themselves before the playoffs.
Unsurprisingly, Giannis Antetokounmpo was at the center of their offense in those contests. He posted a usage rate of at least 42.4% in both games vs. the Nets, and he also saw a nice spike in minutes. Overall, he finished with at least 60.0 DraftKings points in both games. There’s no guarantee he’s as involved Wednesday vs. the Wizards, but those games vs. the Nets were a good reminder of what Giannis is capable of. When he’s at his best, he’s still the most dominant player in fantasy basketball.
Value
If Barnes is ruled out again on Wednesday, Marvin Bagley stands out as one of the best values on the slate. He’s played at least 30.9 minutes in each of his past two games, and Bagley has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s capable of doing some serious damage with that much playing time vs. the Pacers.
Fast Break
Jaden McDaniels stands out as a nice value at $3,900 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47.
The Grizzlies have a pair of interesting value options at the position. Jaren Jackson Jr. will miss today’s contest for injury management, which opens a few additional minutes. Xavier Tillman stands out as the preferred option on FanDuel, while Brandon Clarke stands out as the better value on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
It’s a tough call between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic for the top center spot on today’s slate, but I’m giving a slight edge to Embiid. He should be able to have his way on the interior vs. the Rockets. They don’t have a ton of size, and they’re going to be even thinner than usual in the frontcourt tonight. Jae’Sean Tate has already been ruled out, while Christian Wood is doubtful. That doesn’t leave them with a top of options to slow down Embiid, who is one of the most gifted low-post scorers in the league.
Value
Moe Wagner’s price has increased pretty significantly, but he still has the potential to provide excellent value on Wednesday. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off nearly 41.4 minutes in his last outing. He posted 36.25 DraftKings points two games ago, so he clearly has the potential to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
Richaun Holmes is another member of the Kings who should benefit from their current injury situation. He failed to return value yesterday vs. the Thunder, but he did see 30.9 minutes of playing time. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should be able to bounce back on Wednesday. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.23.
Mo Bamba has provided solid value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.27 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s done that despite splitting the playing time with Wendell Carter Jr., but Carter has been downgraded to questionable for today’s matchup. The thought of Bamba getting 30+ minutes on today’s slate is tantalizing given his average of 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
