Friday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young was fantastic for the Hawks in their comeback win on Wednesday. He scored 39 points and handed out seven assists, resulting in 56.75 DraftKings points. Overall, his season average of 1.36 DraftKings points per minute is the top mark at the position, and no point guard is projected for more minutes on Friday’s slate. He also leads the position with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Value
The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard for the second straight game, and Reggie Jackson will be asked to pick up some of the slack. He was excellent without Leonard in Los Angeles’ last game, finishing with 33.5 DraftKings points over 36.7 minutes, and he’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Leonard off the court during the postseason. Jackson’s usage rate has increased by 4.8% with Leonard and Serge Ibaka off the floor during the playoffs, resulting in an average of 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. That makes him way underpriced across the industry on Friday.
Fast Break
The Jazz are in a win-or-go-home situation on Friday, but they’re currently operating at less than full strength. Mike Conley has missed each of the first five games of this series, and he’s questionable once again in Game 6. Additionally, Donovan Mitchell has been added to the injury report as questionable. It seems unlikely that Mitchell sits, but he could be a bit limited.
Those injury concerns make Jordan Clarkson a very appealing option on FanDuel. His $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he could be asked to do a bit more than usual offensively.
Ben Simmons has struggled in this series, which has caused his salary to drop by more than $1,000 on FanDuel since the start of the postseason. That makes him an interesting buy-low target. He owns the best individual matchup at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.54, and Simmons has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.58 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George was a massive disappointment in the playoffs last season, but he changed the narrative in Game 5 of LA’s current series with Utah. George delivered a massive performance with Leonard sidelined, finishing with 37 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists while leading the Clippers to a victory. He ultimately racked up 71.0 DraftKings points, and he’ll have the chance for another big performance with Leonard sidelined on Friday.
George has posted a usage rate of 37.2% with Leonard and Ibaka off the court during the postseason, resulting in an average of 1.69 DraftKings points per minute. He has been priced up to $10,100 on DraftKings, but his price tag still comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
Terance Mann is another beneficiary of Leonard’s absence. Mann played 25.7 minutes in his last game and responded with 23.0 DraftKings points. He remains one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games. That said, he’s still played plenty of minutes over that time frame. His minutes were down in his last game, but he dealt with foul trouble in that contest. He’s currently projected for 39.3 minutes on today’s slate, so he’s expected to return to his usual workload. That makes him a strong buy-low target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
The 76ers had an epic collapse in their last game, and the bench unit was the big culprit. They were outscored by 17 points with Matisse Thybulle on the floor, 14 points with Dwight Howard on the floor, and eight points with Shake Milton on the floor.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Doc Rivers has hinted that he’ll shorten his rotation in Game 6. Furkan Korkmaz was +22 over 28.7 minutes in Game 5, so he’s someone who could benefit from a shortened rotation.
Small Forward
Stud
Small forward is extremely thin without Leonard available. Nicolas Batum is the most expensive option at the position on FanDuel, and he stands out as a strong option. He logged 42.2 minutes in Game 5 and finished with at least 30.4 FanDuel points for the third straight game.
Batum has averaged 0.81 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has excellent upside if he’s going to play 40 or more minutes again. He is an even better option on DraftKings, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Luke Kennard is another value option to consider with the Clippers. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and we project him to play 21.4 minutes. Minimum-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 with a comparable minutes projection, which makes him an interesting punt play.
Fast Break
Thybulle is also priced at the minimum on DraftKings. He hasn’t been quite as good as Kennard on a per-minute basis this season, but he is projected for slightly more minutes in our NBA Models. He could see slightly fewer minutes than he did in Game 5, but he still figures to be a factor in the rotation.
Danilo Gallinari was a big reason for the Hawks’ success in Game 5. He played a series-high 30.4 minutes in that contest, and he responded with 26.1 FanDuel points. Gallinari has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should be able to duplicate that performance with a similar workload in Game 6. The Hawks were +13 points with Gallo on the floor in Game 5, so I doubt he sees less playing time on Friday.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s coming off just 14.3 FanDuel points in his last outing. That’s caused his salary to absolutely plummet. He was priced as high as $8,800 on FanDuel at the start of this series, but he’s down to just $7,200 on Friday. That makes him a strong buy-low target. His current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Value
Marcus Morris has scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, but he remains very affordable at just $5,100. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Morris should continue to carry an expanded workload with Leonard out of the lineup. He played 40.4 minutes in Game 5, and he saw a slight bump in usage rate, as well.
Fast Break
John Collins is another strong value on DraftKings. His $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he also leads the position with nine Pro Trends. His production has been down over the past month, but he has scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Collins has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season, so there’s no reason he can’t hit return value again on Friday.
Royce O’Neale has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.47 on FanDuel during his past 10 games, and he should continue to see plenty of playing time for the Jazz. He’s their best wing defender, so he’ll be tasked with trying to slow down George in a must-win contest. It sounds like Conley will be able to return to the lineup in Game 6, but that should still leave plenty of minutes for O’Neale.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid continues to play through a small tear in his meniscus, but he’s been extremely effective for the majority of this series. He did struggle in Game 4, but he bounced back with a huge performance in Game 5. He stuffed the stat sheet, finishing with 72.75 DraftKings points thanks to 37 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and four blocks. Expect Embiid to carry another large workload in a must-win contest.
Value
There really is no value option at the position on Friday. You could use Collins at center on DraftKings — he has dual eligibility at power forward and center — but you don’t have that luxury on FanDuel. There’s a massive drop-off after Clint Capela, and none of those players are projected for more than 10.8 minutes. That makes center a position to pay up for.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert stands out as the best pivot off Embiid on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%, and his nine Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. Gobert logged 41.5 minutes in Game 5, and he’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season. That gives him sizable upside at his current price tag.
Capela will likely command the lowest ownership among the “big three” centers on today’s slate. He’s been dreadful in this series, which is not all that uncommon vs. Embiid. Not only is he one of the better defensive centers in the league, but he has the ability to put opposing centers in foul trouble. Capela has averaged just 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he averaged a stout 1.28 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has some bounce-back appeal.
Pictured Above, from Left: Terance Mann (14), Nicolas Batum (33) and Marcus Morris (8).
Photo Credit: Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
