At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
It’s in our nature to avoid situations we perceive as negative. Quite frankly, it makes research easier to just write off entire situations. But fading every low game total and sub-optimal matchup will likely cause you to miss plenty of potential value over the long run.
If you’re thinking to yourself, “Sure, in an ideal world I’d dig deep into every game on the slate, but who has the time for that?” Well, assuming you’re a FantasyLabs subscriber, you do. Utilizing our Trends tool, you can see how players have performed in these perceived negative situations in a matter of a minute or two. On that note, let’s see if we can find some value by rostering batters in a ballpark generally perceived as a pitcher’s park.
Trend: Rostering Batters in a Pitcher’s Park
My preference is to roster batters who’ll be in the 1-5 spots of a lineup — it’s not a hard and fast rule, but a strong preference. Because of this, I generally start the majority of my batting trends with this filter.
Step 1: Player Filters > Lineup Order > Set to “1 to 5”
Step 2: Trends > Park Factor (Beta) > Set to “0 to 33”
To quantify what is or isn’t a “pitcher’s park,” I’ve decided to include only those that have a factor of 33 or lower. And as we can see in the upper right hand corner, this has dropped our average Plus/Minus down to 0.00. So right away, we know that batters in the top half of their lineups aren’t necessarily at a disadvantage in a pitcher’s park, all other factors neutral. Now let’s see if we can’t improve upon this a bit.
Step 3: Stat Filters > Opp WHIP Percentile > Set to “90 to 99”
Step 4: Stat Filters > wOBA Split > Set to “.34 to .563”
What I’ve done here is apply filters to target bad pitchers with good hitters (smart, huh?). Historcially, a wOBA of .340 is considered “above average,” and by utilizing the wOBA split filter, we can ensure that the hitter is in a positive matchup. With our final filter added, let’s check out the results.
With an average Plus/Minus of +0.51, it seems there may be some value here after all. What we’ve done here isn’t anything overly complicated. By looking past one negative — the location of the game — and focusing on a few positives, we’ve found a decent amount of value in a situation many may consider bypassing altogether. Whether it’s a poor Park Factor, low implied run total, or just a bad matchup, it’s always a good idea to run the situation through the Trends tool to see if your perception of the situation matches the reality. And now, let’s check out our matches for today’s games.
Good luck tonight!
