At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Pitchers With Excellent Results but Bad Advanced Stats
Today’s trend will look specifically at Royals lefty Danny Duffy. The reason he’s so intriguing is that his recent results have been absolutely incredible . . .
However, his advanced stats paint an ugly picture: In his last three starts, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 244 feet, fly-ball rate of 50 percent, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 46 percent. Pitchers with those combined marks have historically been awful:
However, if you look at the past results, you’ll see that Duffy doesn’t really fit with the rest of the pitchers. Most of them have been bad, cheap pitchers in rough spots. Duffy, on the other hand, is very talented and has had amazing results lately. We’re always trying to be forward-looking in DFS, so let’s see what matters more: Excellent recent results or awful recent advanced stats.
Step 1: Fantasy Month Filters > Month PPG > 45 to 80
Step 2: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Count > 4 to 6
These first two steps establish Duffy’s recent results: Pitchers who have scored an average of 45 or more FD points per start in a month’s span and had at least four starts. The count is important, as it eliminates any one-off, random games from pitchers we aren’t particularly interested in for this sample. We want sustained dominance.
Now let’s add one of our negative recent advanced stats filters.
Step 3a: Adv Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity – 15 > 93 to 96
Hmm, that’s not quite what I was expecting. The Plus/Minus and Consistency both increased. That’s probably an anomaly. Let’s try a different stat:
Step 3b: Adv Stats – Recent > FB % – 15 > 50 to 59
OK, this is a little weird. Let’s do one more. Surely hard-hit rate would make things negative.
Step 3c: Adv Stats – Recent > HH % – 15 > 45 to 51
Interesting.
Now my theory: If you look at the past results for any of the advanced stat trends, the names are all guys like Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Danny Salazar, and Stephen Strasburg — the studs of MLB and daily fantasy baseball. This doesn’t prove by any means that advanced stats aren’t predictive. In fact, in the second graphic above, we see that for the entire sample of pitchers it’s quite predictive in a very negative way.
What this does suggest, however, is that perhaps Danny Duffy is an elite pitcher. And perhaps bad advanced stats just don’t matter as much for elite pitchers.
There’s your hot taek for the day. Good luck.
