At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Pitchers with Elite K Rates as Underdogs with a Good Park Factor
Strikeouts are obviously good in fantasy, and they’re also fairly predictable. We also know that Vegas lines are really important in MLB DFS and are the most accurate projections for the upside of an offense or downside of a pitcher. Regarding pitchers specifically, our own Matt Freedman has written extensively about the importance of wins for starters.
So what happens when pitchers with elite strikeout ability aren’t favored to win, but are pitching in friendly ballparks? Our Park Factor Rating metric measures the historic percentile rank of a ballpark’s hitter friendliness and can help us decipher this mystery. Can a good ballpark and elite strikeout capability overcome Vegas?
Let’s find out.
Step 1: Trends > Stat Filters > SO Percentile > 85 to 100
I’m setting the range in Stat Filters for Strikeout Percentile to 85 to 100 percent. Historically, pitchers ranked in the top 15 percent of strikeouts per nine have accumulated a +2.89 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 57.5 percent Consistency.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Dog
Adding in the underdog filter to our existing trend brings the Plus/Minus all the way down to a slightly-favorable +0.77 on FanDuel, and the Consistency drops nearly six full points to 51.9 percent.
Step 3: Trends > Park Factor > 65 to 100
Now let’s see what happens when we magically transport these strikeout machines to a traditionally pitcher-friendly ballpark. Setting the Park Factor to 65 and above brings the Plus/Minus on FanDuel all the way back up to +2.01 with 56.7 percent Consistency. So while the Plus/Minus and Consistency are both slightly lower than our original trend with just SO/9 percentage, the good ballpark seems to do a good job of lessening the impact of the Vegas prediction.
Current Matches
Today’s current matches are Francisco Liriano and Stephen Strasburg.
Liriano has pitched in this exact position three times this season. He has exceeded his salary-based expectations in two of those three starts, while yielding a +8.89 Plus/Minus in those games.
Strasburg hasn’t pitched in this position yet this season, but he has been a Plus/Minus beast all season and comes into the game in excellent recent form.
