In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? The guy who taught Wes Welker how to run routes.
John Daigle: Chris Sale, CSW, SP
Ask any logical person how many pitchers there are to choose from tonight, and the answer (hopefully) will be 28. But if you ask me, there are only two: Sale in cash games, and everyone else in tournaments. [Editor’s Note: Is anyone else really disappointed that Daigle didn’t go for a Sale/sale pun?]
The Yankees strike out in only 19.7 percent of their at-bats versus left-handing pitching, but they still have a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO) in the majors. Also, over the last two weeks Sale’s batted-ball distance allowed is better than that of any other pitcher by at least 25 feet (per our advanced stats). His velocity has admittedly dropped two miles per hour in that span, but no matter: Opponents are averaging a -10 percent Hard-Hit Differential against him.
He’s not on sale [Editor’s Note: YES!!!], but he’s worth the expense.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations (and other bad puns?) in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Mitchell Block: Michael Conforto, NYM, OF
Conforto has had an ice-cold May, some of which can likely be attributed to the Mets’ having played six games in San Diego and Los Angeles during this stretch. Soon, though, the beer will flow like wine with a matchup against Jon Gray — owner of a 1.55 WHIP — and a trip to Coors on tap. [Editor’s Note: We’re instinctively flocking to bad puns like the salmon of Capistrano.]
When there’s a righty on the mound — particularly one of Gray’s ilk — it’s tough to ignore Conforto. With ridiculous Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) splits of .389 and .271 against right-handed pitching, Conforto is a reasonable play, considering the inflated prices we usually see at Coors. Conforto is especially enticing on DraftKings, where he has a $4,200 salary, 70 percent Bargain Rating, and 11 Pro Trends.
When you factor in the Mets’ slate-high implied Vegas total of 5.2 runs and his attractive spot in the batting order as the No. 3 hitter, Conforto looks to be in line for a nice bounce-back game.
Kelly McCann: Kyle Seager, SEA, 3B
Josh Donaldson has historically been incredible vs. LHP in games in which the Blue Jays are projected to score at least 4.5 runs by Vegas. In said situation, he has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.40 with 64.3 percent Consistency.
That’s why you should look elsewhere at third base in tournaments tonight. Toronto has the third-highest total on the board and it’s common knowledge that Donaldson destroys southpaws. He’s so exquisitely chalky that I would expect to see his essence announcing the evening’s specials on the blackboard outside a small Parisian café. [Editor’s Note: The accent was a nice touch.]
I also expect to see the Coors combo of Nolan Arenado and David Wright rostered in a lot of lineups, and so your opportunity to create a unique tournament lineup begins and ends at third base — which leads me to Kyle Seager.
Seattle’s projected 4.5 runs are nothing to sneeze at but are also far enough away from all the big numbers to go unnoticed tonight. Additionally, Seager’s 15-day average batted-ball distance is a very impressive 259 feet, the fourth-best among third basemen in the slate. In fact, his recent Distance Differential, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are all trending in the right direction, indicating that a huge game is on the horizon.
According to the Trends tool, when Seattle is projected to score at least four runs and Seager has seen an increase in all three of the aforementioned metrics, he averages a Plus/Minus of +2.33. As a pivot away from the more popular options, he has a lot of Upside.
Tyler Buecher: Rougned Odor, TEX, 2B
Right now, the Rangers second baseman is giving off the . . . odor . . . of someone on fire! [Editor’s Note: Probably not the worst joke in this piece.]
With our 15-day advanced stats, we can get a quick sense of players who are hot, and right now Odor is hotter than Hansel, as his recent batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage are on the rise. He’s also been crushing from a fantasy perspective, with 20.7 FanDuel points per game over his past two series against the Tigers and White Sox. Expected to bat leadoff, Odor has a steady .362 wOBA vs. RHP, and against R.A. Dickey he actually a chance to improve upon smoking 10-game +6.33 Plus/Minus.
Dickey is the slate’s second-worst pitcher in terms of strikeouts per nine innings, and his average velocity is a sad 81.1 miles per hour. Dickey’s sporting a 5.18 earned run average with only three quality starts on the season. He’s a prime player to target.
Finally, tonight’s matchup between Toronto and Texas has one of the highest projected run totals, with a Vegas score in the 90th percentile. Paying up for Odor (and his teammates in a Rangers stack) could be profitable.
Matthew Freedman: Alex Presley, MIL, OF
Of all the jokes in this article, this one was the worst.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
