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MLB DFS 5/13/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Chris Sale, CWS

Maybe it’s me, but I see only two options at pitcher tonight: Sale in cash, and everyone else in tournaments. The Yankees strike out in only 19.7 percent of their at-bats against lefties, but they still have a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO) in the majors. Also, over the last two weeks Sale’s batted-ball distance allowed is better than that of any other pitcher by at least 25 feet. His velocity has admittedly dropped two miles per hour in that span, but no matter: Opponents are averaging a -10 percent Hard-Hit Differential against him. Nothing stops this train.

Brandon Finnegan, CIN

Finnegan is strictly a deep-dive option, as it usually takes a cheaper pitcher in order to fill out a lineup at DraftKings. His batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks trails only Sale’s. His 1.77 home runs allowed per nine innings are worrisome, but the Phillies have a terrible .265 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) versus left-handed pitching. Just don’t expect anything more than what a $6,000 pitcher with no Pro Trends would ordinarily produce. [Editor’s Note: When John gives a backhanded endorsement, he doesn’t use just one hand.]

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Gray, COL

In 8.2 innings at Coors Field this season, Gray has gifted opponents with a .390/.432/.650 slash line. Those averages have plummeted to .116/.174/.140 in 13 innings on the road. But that’s just this year. Even last season, opposing offenses averaged differentials of .163/.121/.260 when facing Gray in Denver. At home, Gray doesn’t stand a chance against the Mets’ .330 wOBA.

Matt Harvey, NYM

Harvey isn’t exempt from the fireworks at Coors, either. Despite facing San Diego and Atlanta in his last two games, he has a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +47 feet. There’s clearly something wrong — perhaps it’s the 1.6 MPH dip in his velocity (per our advanced stats) — but whatever it is it won’t get fixed before tonight. The top-five batters in Colorado’s lineup will be a popular stack for obvious reasons.

Steven Wright, BOS

As a knuckle-baller, Wright has a (low) pitch speed that typically stays between 82.9 and 83.3 MPH. He may be projected to allow “only” four runs tonight, but note Houston’s +3.60 Plus/Minus when facing pitchers who have average velocities lower than 84 MPH. Additionally, Houston’s top-four batters will likely be rostered in a low percentage of lineups, given the Coors chalkiness of the slate.

C

Yan Gomes, CLE

There’s no need to pay up at his position, with Gomes having a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He has a poor exit velocity of 88 MPH in his last eight starts, but Ricky Nolasco’s bottom-three exit velocity allowed in that span makes up for it. Nolasco also has a bottom-five HR/9 in tonight’s slate.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

Lance McCullers allowed 0.61 fewer HR/9 to left-handed batters (as opposed to right-handed batters) last season, but Ortiz is still the strongest cash play at first base. Note his .671 slugging percentage, which is .035 higher than anyone else’s at the position. In terms of exit velocity, over the last two weeks he trails only Justin Bour, Joey Votto, Chris Johnson, and Byung-Ho Park.

Byung-Ho Park, MIN

Speaking of Park: His aforementioned exit velocity isn’t the only thing he has going for him. He also gets to face Josh Tomlin, who has allowed 1.66 HR/9 over the last year. Minnesota is projected to score only 3.8 runs, but the Twins are still an elite stack in tournaments, given Tomlin’s 236-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the last 15 days.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

The combination of Tom Koehler’s 95 MPH exit velocity and Murphy’s 253-foot batted-ball distance are too good to be true. Murphy also has a top-three slugging percentage (.535). The Nationals make for a great stack no matter what, but it certainly bodes well that Miami has received only 18 percent of moneyline bets so far.

Joe Panik, SF

Panik’s batted-ball distance over the last week is just average, but he’s still expected to bat No. 2 for San Francisco. That alone makes him a terrific option against Shelby Miller, who’s unsurprisingly projected to allow five runs tonight. With his positive ISO Differential vs. RHP, Panik is too good to pass on, especially at FanDuel, where he sports an 86 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Most DFSers will flock to Josh Donaldson tonight and rightfully so. His .661 slugging percentage vs. LHP is .068 higher than that of any other third baseman. But Wright is arguably a better play since he leads the position in batted-ball distance and will likely be rostered in a lower percentage of lineups. He also has a top-two exit velocity over his last eight starts.

SS

Brandon Crawford, SF

In comparison to his teammates (such as Panik), Crawford may be a not-so-obvious way to target Shelby Miller, and our Player Models show that he has good peripherals. It would be better if he were batting in the top third of the Giants lineup, but he’s still a solid play, as he leads all shortstops in the slate in exit velocity. With a batted-ball distance that surpasses even Troy Tulowitzki’s by six feet, Crawford is arguably the strongest cash option at his position tonight.

Zack Cozart, CIN

Of course, there’s always Cozart. And, sure, he has negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs.RHP, but his batted-ball distance is the best at the position (including Crawford). Note also that Jeremy Hellickson has a bottom-three HR/9 (1.65) tonight.

OF

Bryce Harper, WSH

For me, BvP is more of a blueprint for how much exposure people are likely to have for particular players. I use it only if something stands out astronomically — such as immaculate results from a left-handed batter facing a lefty pitcher, a high average from a division foe who has produced in that matchup numerous times, etc. And as it pertains to Harper tonight, it’s certainly noteworthy that he has mashed seven home runs against Tom Koehler. It’s a great matchup for the Nationals to begin with, but Harper’s history vs. Koehler only solidifies his position in any stacks (or lineups).

Miguel Sano, MIN

Sano’s exit velocity in his last 10 starts is tied for the fourth-highest among outfielders. The Twins as a whole have struck out in 23 percent of their at-bats vs. RHP, but I’m not too concerned with Josh Tomlin exceeding whatever Upside he may have. It’s much easier to focus on his bottom-two HR/9 and batted-ball distance allowed tonight.

Michael Conforto, NYM

No matter how you look at it, you’ll need some type of unique exposure if you’re stacking the Mets tonight (due to their assumed popularity). Even so, Conforto is the one player whom I wouldn’t fade, despite these recent results:

 

Don’t even worry about that -2.95 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He actually has a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +12 feet over that timeframe, and he continues to hit the ball farther than anyone else in New York’s outfield. The results will come eventually.

Weather Watch

Astros-Red Sox has a high chance to see showers throughout the evening. It actually appears to be leaning more toward the “postponed” side than not. White Sox-Yankees is also expected to see rain, but it’s more likely to be delayed than postponed. The same goes for Braves-Royals, which is expecting thunderstorms around first pitch (but not after).

Good luck!

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No related posts.

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our new Vegas dashboard.)

Pitchers

Chris Sale, CWS

Maybe it’s me, but I see only two options at pitcher tonight: Sale in cash, and everyone else in tournaments. The Yankees strike out in only 19.7 percent of their at-bats against lefties, but they still have a bottom-five Isolated Power (ISO) in the majors. Also, over the last two weeks Sale’s batted-ball distance allowed is better than that of any other pitcher by at least 25 feet. His velocity has admittedly dropped two miles per hour in that span, but no matter: Opponents are averaging a -10 percent Hard-Hit Differential against him. Nothing stops this train.

Brandon Finnegan, CIN

Finnegan is strictly a deep-dive option, as it usually takes a cheaper pitcher in order to fill out a lineup at DraftKings. His batted-ball distance allowed over the last two weeks trails only Sale’s. His 1.77 home runs allowed per nine innings are worrisome, but the Phillies have a terrible .265 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) versus left-handed pitching. Just don’t expect anything more than what a $6,000 pitcher with no Pro Trends would ordinarily produce. [Editor’s Note: When John gives a backhanded endorsement, he doesn’t use just one hand.]

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Gray, COL

In 8.2 innings at Coors Field this season, Gray has gifted opponents with a .390/.432/.650 slash line. Those averages have plummeted to .116/.174/.140 in 13 innings on the road. But that’s just this year. Even last season, opposing offenses averaged differentials of .163/.121/.260 when facing Gray in Denver. At home, Gray doesn’t stand a chance against the Mets’ .330 wOBA.

Matt Harvey, NYM

Harvey isn’t exempt from the fireworks at Coors, either. Despite facing San Diego and Atlanta in his last two games, he has a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +47 feet. There’s clearly something wrong — perhaps it’s the 1.6 MPH dip in his velocity (per our advanced stats) — but whatever it is it won’t get fixed before tonight. The top-five batters in Colorado’s lineup will be a popular stack for obvious reasons.

Steven Wright, BOS

As a knuckle-baller, Wright has a (low) pitch speed that typically stays between 82.9 and 83.3 MPH. He may be projected to allow “only” four runs tonight, but note Houston’s +3.60 Plus/Minus when facing pitchers who have average velocities lower than 84 MPH. Additionally, Houston’s top-four batters will likely be rostered in a low percentage of lineups, given the Coors chalkiness of the slate.

C

Yan Gomes, CLE

There’s no need to pay up at his position, with Gomes having a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. He has a poor exit velocity of 88 MPH in his last eight starts, but Ricky Nolasco’s bottom-three exit velocity allowed in that span makes up for it. Nolasco also has a bottom-five HR/9 in tonight’s slate.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS

Lance McCullers allowed 0.61 fewer HR/9 to left-handed batters (as opposed to right-handed batters) last season, but Ortiz is still the strongest cash play at first base. Note his .671 slugging percentage, which is .035 higher than anyone else’s at the position. In terms of exit velocity, over the last two weeks he trails only Justin Bour, Joey Votto, Chris Johnson, and Byung-Ho Park.

Byung-Ho Park, MIN

Speaking of Park: His aforementioned exit velocity isn’t the only thing he has going for him. He also gets to face Josh Tomlin, who has allowed 1.66 HR/9 over the last year. Minnesota is projected to score only 3.8 runs, but the Twins are still an elite stack in tournaments, given Tomlin’s 236-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the last 15 days.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

The combination of Tom Koehler’s 95 MPH exit velocity and Murphy’s 253-foot batted-ball distance are too good to be true. Murphy also has a top-three slugging percentage (.535). The Nationals make for a great stack no matter what, but it certainly bodes well that Miami has received only 18 percent of moneyline bets so far.

Joe Panik, SF

Panik’s batted-ball distance over the last week is just average, but he’s still expected to bat No. 2 for San Francisco. That alone makes him a terrific option against Shelby Miller, who’s unsurprisingly projected to allow five runs tonight. With his positive ISO Differential vs. RHP, Panik is too good to pass on, especially at FanDuel, where he sports an 86 percent Bargain Rating.

3B

David Wright, NYM

Most DFSers will flock to Josh Donaldson tonight and rightfully so. His .661 slugging percentage vs. LHP is .068 higher than that of any other third baseman. But Wright is arguably a better play since he leads the position in batted-ball distance and will likely be rostered in a lower percentage of lineups. He also has a top-two exit velocity over his last eight starts.

SS

Brandon Crawford, SF

In comparison to his teammates (such as Panik), Crawford may be a not-so-obvious way to target Shelby Miller, and our Player Models show that he has good peripherals. It would be better if he were batting in the top third of the Giants lineup, but he’s still a solid play, as he leads all shortstops in the slate in exit velocity. With a batted-ball distance that surpasses even Troy Tulowitzki’s by six feet, Crawford is arguably the strongest cash option at his position tonight.

Zack Cozart, CIN

Of course, there’s always Cozart. And, sure, he has negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs.RHP, but his batted-ball distance is the best at the position (including Crawford). Note also that Jeremy Hellickson has a bottom-three HR/9 (1.65) tonight.

OF

Bryce Harper, WSH

For me, BvP is more of a blueprint for how much exposure people are likely to have for particular players. I use it only if something stands out astronomically — such as immaculate results from a left-handed batter facing a lefty pitcher, a high average from a division foe who has produced in that matchup numerous times, etc. And as it pertains to Harper tonight, it’s certainly noteworthy that he has mashed seven home runs against Tom Koehler. It’s a great matchup for the Nationals to begin with, but Harper’s history vs. Koehler only solidifies his position in any stacks (or lineups).

Miguel Sano, MIN

Sano’s exit velocity in his last 10 starts is tied for the fourth-highest among outfielders. The Twins as a whole have struck out in 23 percent of their at-bats vs. RHP, but I’m not too concerned with Josh Tomlin exceeding whatever Upside he may have. It’s much easier to focus on his bottom-two HR/9 and batted-ball distance allowed tonight.

Michael Conforto, NYM

No matter how you look at it, you’ll need some type of unique exposure if you’re stacking the Mets tonight (due to their assumed popularity). Even so, Conforto is the one player whom I wouldn’t fade, despite these recent results:

 

Don’t even worry about that -2.95 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He actually has a Batted-Ball Distance Differential of +12 feet over that timeframe, and he continues to hit the ball farther than anyone else in New York’s outfield. The results will come eventually.

Weather Watch

Astros-Red Sox has a high chance to see showers throughout the evening. It actually appears to be leaning more toward the “postponed” side than not. White Sox-Yankees is also expected to see rain, but it’s more likely to be delayed than postponed. The same goes for Braves-Royals, which is expecting thunderstorms around first pitch (but not after).

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.