The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate at 4:05 p.m. ET and an 11-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
>> Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $13,000, NYM @ PHI
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $11,100, ATL vs. COL
DeGrom is putting together a truly magical season for the New York Mets. He owns an elite 1.81 ERA and 11.04 K/9, and leads all starting pitchers in WAR (per Fangraphs). Unfortunately, pitching for the Mets has resulted in just seven wins, but that hasn’t had much of an impact on his fantasy numbers: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.54 on DraftKings this season.
His current matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies is a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, he leads all starters with a K Prediction of 8.8, and pitchers with comparable marks have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). On the other hand, his Vegas data is not nearly as elite as we’d expect it to be considering his salary, with a 3.8-run opponent implied total and -103 moneyline odds.
He also enters this contest in relatively poor Statcast form, allowing his past three opponents average a batted-ball distance of 219 feet. That represents an increase of +26 feet when compared to his 12-month average, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -83 when coupled with his excellent fantasy numbers. DeGrom can still excel despite relatively poor batted-ball numbers thanks to his outstanding strikeout numbers – he’s recorded 31 over his past three starts – but the numbers are concerning nonetheless.
The final X-factor is the weather, which currently calls for a 28% chance of precipitation at game time. DeGrom should have massive ownership on the three-game afternoon slate, but there appears to be at least somewhat of a legitimate case to be made for fading him.
Foltynewicz headlines the main slate and has earned a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus in each of his past three starts. He dominated the Marlins in his most recent outing, striking out seven while allowing just one run over eight innings. He’s been dealing all year, with an excellent 2.86 ERA to show through his first 23 starts. Foltynewicz may not have the same name value as some of the other top arms in baseball, but he’s an excellent pitcher.
That said, Foltynewicz’s matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies is middling. Their projected lineup has a .317 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Folty an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs. He’s still a solid -156 favorite thanks to the Braves’ implied team total of 4.8 runs, but pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of just +0.21 on DraftKings. It seems like most people will opt to pay down a bit at pitcher, which makes Folty an intriguing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has the second-highest ceiling projection in our MLB Models.
Values
The checklist for David Price has been pretty simple in 2018: Avoid him if he’s pitching against the Yankees, and roster him against virtually everyone else.
Price will be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.02 and a Consistency Rating of 75.0% through the first four matchups. He leads all pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.5 runs) and moneyline odds (-205), while his K Prediction of 6.7 ranks fourth on the main slate.
Price combines his strong traditional numbers with some excellent recent Statcast marks. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 193 feet, which represents a differential of -16 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.79 on DraftKings. Unfortunately, this game does carry a lot of weather risk (56% chance of precipitation), which may make Price too risky for cash games.
With all the uncertainty surrounding the other pitchers, there’s a good chance that Zack Godley checks in with the highest average ownership. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.07 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts, thanks mostly to his excellent strikeout ability. He’s averaged a K/9 of 9.90 over the past 12 months, which is one of the top marks on the slate.
Godley has a dream matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .295 wOBA and 29.7% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs trails only Price’s, while his K Prediction of 8.0 ranks first on the main slate. Godley has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -4 feet.
Fastballs
Adam Plutko: He’s dirt-cheap at $5,800 on DraftKings and has one of the best possible matchups against the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup has an anemic .266 wOBA and 28.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Plutko solid marks in both opponent implied team total (3.8 runs) and moneyline odds (-195).
Madison Bumgarner: MadBum is no longer a plug-and-play option, but he’s in a decent spot vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Their projected lineup has managed a .286 wOBA and 26.8% strikeout rate vs. southpaws over the past 12 months.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Marwin Gonzalez (S)
- 5. Yulieski Gurriel (R)
- 7. Evan Gattis (R)
Total Salary: $20,200
The Astros’ implied team total of 4.1 runs is pretty modest but still ranks second on the early slate. They’re taking on A’s right-hander Trevor Cahill, who has been a solid pitcher this season but allowed a lot of loud contact recently. His past two opponents have averaged an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 46%, both of which are the worst marks on the early slate.
On the other hand, the Astros have strong Statcast over that span. Gurriel and Gattis each have a distance differential of at least +20 feet, while Springer and Gonzalez each have a hard-hit differential of at least +13%. The only batter who hasn’t been making good contact is Bregman, but he’s still one of the best hitters in the game (.372 wOBA and .205 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months).
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Total Salary: $15,200
You typically don’t need much of a reason to stack the Red Sox. They lead all teams with an average of 5.46 runs per game and own the best team wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers by a significant margin. They’re implied for 5.1 runs today vs. Rays’ right-hander Tyler Glasnow. While Glasnow has been impressive with his new team, he’s struggled with allowing walks and homers as a major leaguer. After his last two starts came against the Orioles and Blue Jays, this will be a big step up in weight class.
Betts has put together an MVP-caliber season, but he’s been particularly impressive over his past 13 games (average distance of 253 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 51%). He has the highest ceiling projection of all batters on today’s slate, and frankly, it’s not even close.
Other Batters
Ryan Zimmerman has been scorching hot for the Nationals, owning a .350 average with four HRs and 15 RBI over the past 15 days. His Statcast data suggests that production hasn’t been fluky, as his differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate are strong over that span. He’s in a great spot against Marlins left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, who has disastrous 10.27 ERA on the road this season. Zimmerman is a known lefty killer and has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .462 wOBA and .300 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s an elite value on FanDuel at $3,200.
Nicky Delmonico had a HR and knocked five men in last night for the White Sox. He continues to provide salary relief at just $3,300 on DraftKings and has been batting leadoff. Over his last 12 contests, his distance differential sits at +27 feet and his hard hit differential is +18%. He’ll be on the right side of his splits against Royals right-hander Brad Keller.
Jedd Gyorko is expected to occupy the No. 6 spot in the lineup for the Cardinals and will square off against Brewers left-hander Wade Miley. Gyorko has been dominant against southpaws over the past year and has a .447 wOBA and .287 ISO to show for it. His 15-day/12-month distance differential is +19 feet, and we project him just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mookie Betts
Photo credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
