The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jacob deGrom ($10,800) New York Mets (-450) vs. Colorado Rockies
deGrom is about as obvious of a play as there can be on Thursday. The Vegas data paints quite a picture, with massive -450 moneyline odds, and the Rockies implied for just 2.3 runs.
deGrom made his season debut in August but has been absolutely dominant through four starts. He’s allowed just three runs through 23.1 innings while striking out 37. That makes for an insane 45.7% K rate on the year. While that’s probably unsustainable, he had a 45.1% rate through 92 innings in 2021.
He also benefits from an elite matchup. While the Rockies look like a competent offense by some metrics, that’s primarily due to playing half of their games at Coors Field. Based on wRC+ — which is park-adjusted — they’re a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching. There’s no reason to suspect they’ll be the team that ends deGrom’s dominant run.
deGrom leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems for median and ceiling by a wide margin. Regardless of high ownership projections, he should be in all your lineups.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lance Lynn ($7,800) Chicago White Sox (-120) at Baltimore Orioles
Lynn is another pitcher who’s missed significant time this season, making his debut in mid-June. He had a relatively rocky return to the mound but has settled into form as of late. He’s met or exceeded salary-based DFS expectations in his last five outings.
He’s expected to do so again, with a slate-high +7.93 projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs Models. Lynn is a significant regression candidate whose xERA and SIERA are more than a run below his ERA. He’s also recorded a career-best rate in swinging strikes, but his strikeout rate lags behind his mark the last few seasons.
Baltimore isn’t an offense we necessarily want to pick on, but they aren’t a shy-away team, either. They’re a roughly league-average group against righties, and that was before trading away one of their best hitters in Trey Mancini.
Lynn is an excellent value to pair with deGrom today, with a solid mix of median projection and potential upside via strikeouts.
Jameson Taillon ($7,500) New York Yankees (-225) at Oakland Athletics
Taillon is the other mid-range pitcher worth considering today. He’s projecting as the better option in THE BAT, with a two-point bump to his projections and $300 in salary savings.
His underlying numbers are remarkably similar to Lynn’s, with xERA and FIP marks around 4.00. That said, Taillon’s made 24 starts, so his ERA has leveled out around 4.00. He won’t miss as many bats as Lynn, with a swinging strike rate under 10% and a strikeout rate barely over 20%.
The advantage for Taillon lies in the matchup. Oakland is an offense we want to pick on, with an 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They also have a somewhat high 24.1% strikeout rate as a team, which raises Taillon’s expectation a hair.
As it stands now, Taillon is my preferred option for cash games. He has better Vegas data and has been the more consistent option. I’d lean toward Lynn for GPPs, though. Lynn has more upside for strikeouts and should be the lower owned of the pair.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Aaron Nola ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-350) vs. Cincinnati Reds
It feels weird to discuss Nola as a contrarian option. After all, he has a 3.25 ERA and 28.5% strikeout rate on the season. He also has an excellent matchup with a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching in the Reds.
That’s the situation we find ourselves in, thanks to the presence of another five-figure salaried pitcher projecting even more strongly in deGrom. Still, we shouldn’t ignore Nola today.
Thanks to their high prices, pairing both Nola and deGrom will likely be a less popular combination than their individual ownership projections would imply. Treating Nola as a pivot could pay off as well. He has the upside to outscore deGrom at lower ownership, and the extra $800 in salary could be helpful.
He’s projecting behind only deGrom in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- Kyle Schwarber (1) ($6,000)
- Rhys Hoskins (2) ($4,600)
- Alec Bohm (3) ($4,200)
- J.T. Realmuto (4) ($5,400)
- Nick Castellanos (5) ($4,100)
The Phillies have the slate’s highest total at 5.7 runs, so they’re an obvious choice for the top stack. They’re hosting the Reds and Justin Dunn ($5,700). Dunn has struggled mightily through three starts this year, with a 6.08 ERA. If anything, he’s been lucky: he holds a 7.93 xERA and 8.52 FIP.
It could get out of hand in a hurry for the Reds, who also have the worst team bullpen ERA in the majors. That’s excellent for Phillies’ stacks since the party should continue even after Dunn exits.
While they aren’t coming cheap, the Phillies are a clear choice for the best on-paper offense on a small slate. They’ll be a popular option Thursday night.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Phillies DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the: Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox are a solid pivot today, coming in as an ultra-cheap option. Their implied total is only 4.2 runs, but considering the average price on this stack, that’s an outstanding deal. They travel to Baltimore today, where it’s an especially friendly park for left-handed hitters.
It’s also a favorable matchup with Jordan Lyles ($6,700), whose ERA and leading indicators are all in the mid-fours. He’s not the easiest pitching matchup on the slate, but not one to run from either. He struggles particularly against left-handed hitting himself, with a .368 wOBA, compared to .332 against righties.
That makes Sheets and Moncada the priority from the White Sox stacks, and they’re also the two cheapest hitters. It also wouldn’t be a shock if the White Sox pivoted from their usual lineup to include more lefties on Tuesday. Keep an eye on our lineups page as we approach lock.
Even if they don’t, the full White Sox stack is a solid option, particularly if paired with Nola and deGrom.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Alejandro Kirk C ($4,500 DraftKings; $2,900 DraftKings) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
Kirk is projecting as a solid pivot from Realmuto of the Phillies. His projections fall just short of Realmuto in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs systems, but he’s $900 cheaper. Kirk has been the more productive hitter on the season, with an .830 OPS.
Kirk also has nearly as strong of a matchup against the Red Sox Kutter Crawford ($6,100). Despite a name that destined him to be a pitcher, he’s struggled early in his MLB career. Through 70 big-league innings, he has a 5.63 ERA. Toronto is implied for 5.2 runs, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Yuli Gurriel 1B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins (Chris Archer)
Gurriel is a reasonable salary saver tonight as the projected No. 2 hitter for the Astros. He’s a solid value based on that alone, but Houston’s 4.9-run implied total is icing on the cake.
It’s not a particularly appealing matchup with Chris Archer ($6,500) of the Twins, but it’s not scary either. Archer has typically only lasted about four innings in his starts this season anyway, so the bulk of Gurriel’s at-bats could come against relievers.
Minnesota ranks roughly league average in that category too. While I wouldn’t pay a premium for Gurriel, his 64% Bargain Rating on DraftKings means we don’t have to.
Luis Arraez 1B/2B ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (Luis Garcia)
After facing Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez the past two games, the Twins get a bit of relief tonight against Luis Garcia ($8,800). Garcia is a solid arm but carries a 4.09 ERA into this one, compared to south of 3.00 for both Verlander and Valdez.
That should spell better things for Arraez, who’s hitless in his last three games. He’s hitting .325 with an .826 OPS on the season and should be able to return to form tonight.
