The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Blake Snell ($7,900) San Diego Padres (-155) vs. San Francisco Giants
Snell is reasonably cheap for the “studs” section of this article, but he’s the easy choice today. His median and ceiling projections lead both THE BAT and the FantasyLabs systems for Friday’s main slate.
He’s simply too cheap for his ability, as Snell comes into Friday with a 4.02 SIERA and 28% strikeout rate on the season. He’s had some rough starts, but those primarily came earlier in the year. Snell started 2022 on the injured list and didn’t make his first start until mid-May, but he seems to be rounding into form now.
His ERA is an ugly 5.13, but that’s mostly been a case of negative variance. Snell’s career mark is 3.53, and at 29 years old, we wouldn’t expect him to be falling off yet. Additionally, all of his leading indicators suggest his ERA is inflated. His xERA and FIP are both around 3.7, with his xFIP and SIERA a hair over four.
When you combine that with his obvious strikeout upside, he’s a no-brainer play today. He has positive Park Factor and Weather Rating scores as well as solid Vegas data. Other than potentially high ownership, I don’t see a reason to fade him in a moderate matchup.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lucas Giolito ($7,800) Chicago White Sox (-175) vs. Detroit Tigers
Giolito could easily switch sections with Snell today, as the pair have similar projections in both systems. The White Sox ace is $100 cheaper and narrowly edges out Snell in Pts/Sal projections in THE BAT.
Giolito is another pitcher who is astonishingly cheap today, considering his ability and the matchup. Like Snell, he has an inflated 4.90 ERA, but his SIERA is a much better 3.63. He’s also had some obvious bad luck, with an inflated .349 batting average on balls in play.
Giolito also has a ton of strikeout upside, with a 27.3% rate that’s his lowest since 2018. When you couple that with a matchup against the Tigers, he’s another arm that’s hard to avoid today. Detroit has shown signs of improvement in the past few weeks but still rank as the worst offense outside of Oakland.
They’re implied for just 3.6 runs today. While that’s not a super low number, it’s solid considering Giolito’s price point. As are the -175 moneyline odds. He’ll be hard to avoid today, with the only case to be made centering around his ownership. He and Snell are expected to be the most popular arms on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chris Bassitt ($8,700) New York Mets (-160) vs. Miami Marlins
On many slates, Bassitt would be popping as a tremendous value. He has a SIERA below 3.50, a 25% strikeout rate, and a solid matchup with the Marlins — a roughly league-average offense. Miami is implied for just 3.4 runs, the lowest mark currently on the board.
However, Bassitt could easily go overlooked at nearly $1,000 more than Snell and Giolito. That could be a big edge for tournaments. If either of them underwhelms today, pivoting to Bassitt at only slightly more salary could prove crucial.
On paper, he’s not as good of a play as either of the other two arms. However, the case for him in tournaments is fairly simple math. He’s expected to be owned at roughly half the levels of both Snell and Giolito. If you think he has at least a one-in-three chance of outperforming either of them, he’s a plus-EV tournament option.
Zac Gallen ($8,300) Arizona Diamondbacks (-164) vs. Colorado Rockies
Gallen ranks fourth in THE BAT’s projections, and like Bassitt, would be standing out as a tremendous value on most slates. He’s reasonably priced, a significan’t favorite, and his opponents are implied for just 3.6 runs.
The matchup with the Rockies is a sneaky good one. Colorado always has inflated counting stats, thanks to playing half of their games at Coors Field. However, their wRC+ — which is ballpark-adjusted — is just 90 on the season. That’s the sixth-worst mark in the majors.
They’re even worse when you look at their performance vs. right-handed pitching. Their 80 wRC+ in that split is better than only Oakland and Detroit, so we couldn’t ask for much more from a matchup perspective. Gallen has also been very strong in his own right, with SIERA and ERA numbers in the mid-threes.
While he doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the rest of the bunch, he’s possibly the safest and most consistent arm mentioned. Rostering him is more of a bet on a bad game from any of the more popular options than expecting a huge game from Gallen. That’s not all that unlikely, though, making him an intriguing choice.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna (1) ($6,000)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($5,300)
- Matt Olson (3) ($4,300)
- Austin Riley (4) ($5,200)
- Marcell Ozuna (5) ($4,000)
The Braves’ 5.8-run implied team total easily leads Friday’s slate, with no team within half a run of them. That should make them the obvious stacking choice, as they host the Nationals and Erick Fedde ($6,900). Fedde is far from an intimidating matchup, with his 4.29 ERA being the lowest of his career. His leading indicators are all varying degrees worse than that, with a 4.74 SIERA for example.
A top-five offense like the Braves should have no problem taking advantage of that. It doesn’t get much tougher when the Nats bullpen comes into play; their 4.50 ERA ranks bottom-five in the majors.
The Braves stack is relatively pricey but should be accessible thanks to the value at pitcher today. I’d expect them to be the most popular team on the slate, though, so pivoting to other hitters on Atlanta or working in some low-owned options elsewhere could help for tournaments.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Yankees:
At first blush, this stack looks a bit funny. It skips the leadoff man in favor of the ninth hitter. Of course, we optimized for ceiling, and the ninth hitter is Joey Gallo.
All Gallo does is hit home runs, though that’s not necessarily the compliment it sounds like. He has a woeful .165 batting average on the season, but more than 30% of his hits have left the park. In fact, that’s the case with the whole Yankees outfield: All of Stanton, Judge, and Gallo have homers on at least 30% of their hits in 2022.
For context, the league-average rate is roughly 13%, so there’s a huge amount of boom or bust with the Yankees tonight. Fortunately, the matchup with Connor Seabold ($6,300) tilts the scales heavily towards boom. The rookie has made just two major league starts, allowing eight runs for an ERA of 8.31.
Seabold can miss some bats, which could be a slight problem for the free-swinging Yankees. However, he also allows fly balls on more than 40% of his balls in play, which is a problem for Seabold. Righties in this one have one of the higher Park Factors on the slate, with a positive Weather Rating in Boston.
The all-or-nothing nature of most of this stack makes the Yankees a better option for GPPs than cash games. They’re an excellent choice there, though, and should come in somewhat lesser owned than the Braves, particularly if rostering Gallo. Their 5.3-run total is the highest of any road team.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mauricio Dubon SS/OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Oakland A’s (Paul Blackburn)
While salary isn’t particularly tight tonight, Dubon is a solid option to free some up. He’s expected to bat second in the Astros lineup as they travel to Oakland. Houston is implied for 4.4 runs, a reasonable total in a somewhat tricky matchup.
Dubon is hitting only .217 on the season, but some significant regression is due. His BABIP is only .210, significantly lower than his .281 career average. Thanks to a remarkably low 8% strikeout rate, he “should” be hitting around .260. With the strength of the Astros lineup around him, getting on base has a strong chance to translate into runs.
Dubon isn’t a high-upside option, with limited power and speed. But he’s got a reasonable chance of providing a few points at a budget price, provided he is near the top of the order.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,200 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Ramirez has cooled down a bit after an extremely hot start to the season. He hit 16 home runs through roughly the first two months of the season but has hit none since June 10th. He’s also gone nine straight with a negative Plus/Minus, with his last game above salary-based expectations coming June 26th.
However, he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball. His price has dropped considerably after regularly sitting around $6,000, and he won’t slump forever. He has a solild matchup with Brady Singer ($7,700) of the Royals, who holds a 4.30 ERA.
Additionally, the switch-hitting Ramirez has been far better batting left-handed this season, with an average of .304 against right-handed pitching. It’s hard to time a player coming out of an extended slump, but Ramirez has a chance today at a reduced price. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections at third base.
Trevor Story 2B ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes)
The Red Sox have a difficult matchup with Nestor Cortes ($10,100) of the Yankees, a lefty with a 2.44 ERA and 27% strikeout rate. However, Boston has plenty of hitters with great platoon splits against southpaws, with Story leading the charge.
Story has a career OPS of .992 against left-handed pitching, compared to just .796 against righties. While those numbers are slightly inflated due to his time playing in Colorado, the trend has held in 2022. His OPS against lefties is .880 this season compared to .682 against righties.
Almost nobody will be on Boston today, thanks to the difficult matchup. Mini-stacks are certainly an option, with OF JD Martinez ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) and SS Xander Bogaerts ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) also on the right side of their platoon splits tonight.
