The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Zach McKinstry ($2,500): Second Base, Detroit Tigers
McKinstry is on pace for the best statistical campaign of his career. The Tigers’ second baseman has set a new standard with his slugging percentage and appears ready to set new benchmarks in virtually every offensive category. Still, his DFS salary hasn’t caught up to his production, making him a bargain on the evening slate.
McKinstry has been on a tear lately, recording seven hits, three RBI, and three runs scored over his past eight outings. More impressively, he’s found his power stroke at the plate, sending four of those knocks for extra bases, including two doubles and two home runs. Further, we’re anticipating sustained production from the former 33rd-round pick, as his expected slugging percentage remains above actual, and his barrel rate puts him in the top 26% of MLB hitters.
Additionally, McKinstry has the added advantage of taking on right-hander Kyle Gibson. Gibson tends to give up a lot of solid contact, playing into the hands of the left-handed batting McKinstry.
Alex Call ($2,500): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
The Nationals moved Call to the top of the lineup at the start of the season. Early returns are mixed, but we anticipate a strong showing against Joey Lucchesi and the division rival New York Mets.
Call has a disciplined approach at the plate, accumulating a 16.7% walk rate and 15.1% whiff rate, putting him in the 93rd percentile. He’s used his solid on-base percentage to his advantage, coming around to score 11 times, the second-most on the team. Moreover, he’s reserved his best performances for this week, as Call has hits in three straight while scoring three runs over his last four games.
Analytically, there’s still room for improvement for the Nationals’ outfielder. Call is below his expected slugging percentage, implying he could have some luck in the batter’s box over the coming games. That includes tonight against Lucchesi, who is giving up a 53.8% hard-hit rate early this year.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
Considering he’s been one of the most dominant pitchers of the past decade, it’s a wonder Cole has not yet won a Cy Young award. The five-time All-Star and former ERA title winner consistently rank among the best in strikeouts, leading the league in K/9 twice since 2018. Nevertheless, he’s putting his best foot forward through the first four weeks of the season and should shine again on Thursday.
The Yankees’ ace is the betting favorite to take home his first Cy Young, thanks to his sterling start to the season. Cole has allowed just three earned runs through 34.0 innings for a microscopic 0.79 ERA. Moreover, he’s preventing batters from getting on base with a paltry 0.79 walks + hits per inning pitched. All without sacrificing his strikeout metrics, punching out 36 for a 9.5 K/9.
As good as he’s been, we’re anticipating Cole to look even better over his next few games. He’s seen a slight decline in his strikeouts over the past few games, recording four or fewer in two of his previous three. As those metrics improve, we’ll see Cole put together his best fantasy performances of the season.
The Rangers have loosened their standard at the plate lately, recording 33 strikeouts over their last three games, hitting double digits twice over that stretch. They could look even worse on Thursday as Cole reaches his fantasy ceiling.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
It didn’t take long for Judge to get back on the home run train, swatting a long fly ball in his first at-bat of 2023. Although he hasn’t maintained that impossible pace, he’s got four games left to surpass last year’s opening-month total of six home runs, a plateau he’s already tied.
Not surprisingly, Judge’s metrics haven’t fallen off last year’s MVP standard. The three-time Silver Slugger is the hardest hitter in the MLB, sitting in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate with a whopping 64.4%. Likewise, he’s getting the barrel to the ball more regularly than most, with a 22.0% barrel rate, good enough to crack the top 3%. As expected, this yields a first-class expected slugging percentage of .623, leaving Judge with room to grow over the coming weeks.
We’ve seen glimpses of that progression over his recent sample. Judge has delivered five hits over his previous three games, with three doubles, two runs scored, and three RBI. Yesterday’s three-hit performance could foreshadow what to expect as actual metrics catch up with expected.
Andrew Heaney is an ideal matchup for Judge and the New York Yankees. Heaney sits in the 29th percentile in barrel rate and relies on contact to get outs. We should see Judge continue to flourish as he outpaces last year’s opening-month home run total.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Shane McClanahan ($10,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Rays take on the White Sox for the second time in less than a week, this time traveling to southside Chicago for the inter-divisional matchup. McClanahan is the probable starter for the series opener, setting him up for another solid outing.
McClanahan has made a name for himself, shooting up the Cy Young futures board thanks to his strong outings. The former 31st-overall pick in the draft is 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 11.5 K/9. Few pitchers induce more swings and misses than the Rays’ ace, who sits in the 97th percentile in whiff rate. His changeup is the nastiest of his repertoire, with a jaw-dropping 58.2% rate.
It helps that the White Sox have been one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. Chicago ranks third-last in OPS and the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.8 runs per game.
McClanahan hasn’t given up more than two runs or five hits in any of his starts this year, lasting 6.0 innings in all but one of his outings. Based on our algorithm, he’s expected to maintain that form and is among the elite pitchers in our median and ceiling projections.
Hitters
Anthony Rizzo ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers
We’re not passing on the opportunity to stack Rizzo with Judge. The Yankees’ first baseman is having a resurgent year, posting his best OPS since 2019. How long he maintains that standard remains to be seen, but he also benefits from teeing off on Heaney on Thursday night.
Rizzo is coming off a multi-hit performance but has been relatively consistent throughout the campaign. The three-time All-Star has 15 hits over his past 13 games and has been held hitless in just five contests. Some robust underlying metrics validate that effort, as Rizzo has a 46.4% hard-hit rate, a .498 expected slugging percentage, and a .368 expected weighted on-base average.
Heaney has three offerings, a heater, slider, and changeup; however, only his 4-seamer has an expected slugging percentage below .405. Rizzo is a fastball hitter, with six of his ten extra-base hits coming against the cheese. That’s terrible news for the Rangers, with the Yankees’ top hitters expected to perform.
Brandon Lowe ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
As a team, the Rays have been the best-hitting squad in the majors. They don’t possess a superstar or power bat that does it all, instead relying on a complete batting order to deliver results. Lowe is one of the pillars in the middle of the order and is expected to produce against the White Sox.
Lowe is coming off a down year, in which injuries limited his participation and production. Still, he’s rebounded nicely with solid at-bats and improved analytics. The Rays’ second baseman does it all, swatting six long balls and 15 RBI while coming around to score 17 and stealing one base.
Those stats have been hoisted by sound analytics. Lowe’s 55.8% hard-hit rate and 25.6% barrel percentage put him in the 94th and 99th percentile, respectively, yielding a .576 expected slugging percentage. There’s room for improvement, as Lowe’s actual mark of .500 falls below anticipated.
Tampa Bay was shutout on Wednesday but is poised for a strong showing against a familiar pitcher. We’re betting Lowe lives up to his potential and delivers a top-tier effort.
