The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitcher
Studs
Most teams are returning to the top of the rotation today, which results in an extremely strong pitching slate. Four options possess a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,700, WSH vs. PHI
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,300, HOU @ TEX
- Chris Sale (L) $10,800, BOS @ OAK
- Blake Snell (L) $10,000, TB vs. COL
Scherzer headlines the slate and is coming off an impressive season debut against the Mets in his last outing. He limited them to just two runs on two hits over 7.2 innings and added 12 strikeouts. His batted ball profile was also excellent, allowing an average exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 15%.
He leads all pitchers on this slate in a two key pitching categories: Opponent implied team total (3.0 runs) and K Prediction (9.5). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.50 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Scherzer is also a -171 favorite, which is the third largest mark on the slate.
The only real concern with Scherzer is the weather, which currently calls for a 34% chance of precipitation at game time.
Verlander was also outstanding in his first outing of the year, striking out nine batters over seven innings en route to 55.0 FanDuel points. The only blemish on his record was a solo HR that he allowed to Austin Meadows in the first inning. That said, Verlander’s Statcast data from that outing was a bit of a mixed bag. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate both represented significant increases compared to his 12-month averages, but his ground ball rate of 60% resulted in a reduced average distance.
Unfortunately, Verlander has a difficult matchup against the Rangers. Their projected lineup isn’t all that intimidating — they’ve posted a .309 wOBA and 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months — but the weather conditions in Arlington are among the most favorable for hitting on Tuesday. The result is an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs, which is the highest mark among the stud pitchers. Verlander still offers significant strikeout upside and is the largest favorite on the slate, but he’s better suited for guaranteed prize pools than cash games.
Sale is the toughest stud pitcher to make a case for today. He was roughed up by the Mariners in his first start, allowing three HRs and seven earned runs over just three innings, and his Statcast data suggests that production wasn’t fluky. He allowed them to compile an average distance of 266 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 45% — all three of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
While those numbers are obviously concerning, the biggest concern was the lack of velocity on his fastball. Sale averaged just 92.2 miles per hour, which represents a decrease of 2.5 miles per hour from last season. Historically, pitchers with comparable velocity decreases have averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.68 on FanDuel.
Sale can obviously turn things around — there’s a reason he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past five seasons — but it’s possible that his struggles from last postseason have carried into the regular season.
Snell rounds out the stud group and is another pitcher looking to rebound after a poor first start. That said, he had to face the Astros’ potent lineup in that outing, and his current matchup against the Rockies is much friendlier. Snell’s opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs is tied for the second best mark on the slate, and the Rockies averaged nearly 1.5 fewer runs per game when playing on the road last season.
Value
Just below the stud tier are two very appealing options in Jose Berrios and Hyun-jin Ryu.
Berrios was dominant on Opening Day, shutting out the Indians and racking up 10 strikeouts over 7.2 innings, and he has one of the best matchups of the day against the Royals. Their projected lineup has struck out in 25.5% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Berrios has strong marks in both opponent implied team total (3.5 runs) and K Prediction (7.4). Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.61 on DraftKings.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ryu doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as the stud pitchers on this slate, but he provides the same Vegas data at a reduced price. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and -156 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas numbers have posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.12 on DraftKings. He has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .268 against southpaws over the past 12 months. That’s the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Fastballs
- Jason Vargas: He makes some sense if you’re looking to spend down at SP2 on DraftKings. Vargas was abysmal last season, pitching to a 5.77 ERA, but he has an excellent matchup against a Marlins team that is largely devoid of talent.
- Kyle Freeland<: He’s an underdog against Snell and the Rays, but is one of the best pure values on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%. Freeland was outstanding over the second half of last season, posting a 2.49 ERA.
- Marcus Stroman: He doesn’t possess much strikeout upside given his 12-month K/9 of 6.56, but he owns an implied team total of 3.6 runs and moneyline odds of -187 against the Orioles. His Bargain Rating of 92% is the top mark on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
- 1. Mallex Smith (L)
- 2. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 3. Domingo Santana (R)
- 4. Jay Bruce (L)
- 6. Omar Narvaez (L)
Total Salary: $19,600
The Mariners’ implied team total of 4.5 runs ranks fourth on the slate, but their lineup is one of the better values at their current salary. Four of the five hitters in the above stack own a Bargain Rating of at least 75% on DraftKings, and their Team Value Rating of 62 ranks third on the slate. That’s important on a day where you’re going to need to spend up for at least one pitcher.
They’re taking on Angels right-hander Trevor Cahill, who was roughed up in his first start of the season. He allowed two HRs and four earned runs over six innings pitched, and his Statcast data suggests he gave up a lot of hard contact. Each of the five stacked batters will be on the positive side of their batting splits vs. Cahill, with each of them performing better vs. right-handers than left-handers over the past 12 months.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Billy McKinney (L)
- 2. Brandon Drury (R)
- 4. Randall Grichuk (R)
- 5. Rowdy Tellez (L)
Total Salary: $10,100
The Blue Jays let a lot of people down on Monday. They owned one of the highest implied team totals on the slate and were one of the highest owned teams, but they were shut out by Orioles starter David Hess over the first 6.1 innings.
They have a chance to turn things around today against Andrew Cashner. He was rocked in his first start, allowing six runs over four innings, and he allowed an average exit velocity of 98 miles per hour. The Blue Jays’ implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks second on the slate, and their Team Value Rating of 92 ranks first on FanDuel. Each of the four stacked batters owns a Bargain Rating of at least 83%, and Grichuk leads the stack with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Other Batters
Jeff McNeil is currently projected to occupy the second spot in the Mets’ lineup, and their implied team total of 4.3 runs ranks fifth on the slate. He’s been a hitting machine to start the season, posting a .455 average and .558 wOBA, and his Statcast data suggests he’s been making great contact. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Marlins’ right-hander Jose Urena, and Urena was significantly worse against left-handed batters than right-handed batters last season.
Ian Kinsler is priced at $3,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96% against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Zack Greinke. Kinsler has performed significantly better against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a .324 wOBA and .169 ISO, and he’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup. Historically, leadoff hitters with a comparable Bargain Rating have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.17 on DraftKings.
Mike Trout could carry reduced ownership with most people choosing to focus on pitching, but he’s in an elite spot against Mariners’ left-hander Marco Gonzales. Trout destroyed left-handers last season, posting a .414 wOBA, and Gonzales has allowed a .476 wOBA to right-handed batters through his first two starts this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mariners OF Mitch Haniger (17)
Photo credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
