The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) Texas Rangers (-200) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Two huge names headline Tuesday night’s 20-team slate, but the FantasyLabs projections give the edge to Jacob deGrom with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the board. He just edges out Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,800) and comes just a little bit cheaper, so he also brings a higher Projected Plus/Minus.
In the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders, deGrom comes in just behind Yamamoto, but he still brings a higher Projected Plus/Minus since the margin between the two is so thin.
While both are strong options to pay up and build around, deGrom is my preferred play at home against the Orioles. He just faced the O’s last week, going seven shutout innings with just one hit allowed, two walks, and seven strikeouts on his way to 31.95 DraftKings points. He has over 18 fantasy points in five straight starts, with over 23 fantasy points in three of his last four.
In each of his last 13 starts, deGrom has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer while compiling a 1.67 ERA, 2.44 FIP and 81 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings. Even though the Orioles have been hitting better over the last few weeks, deGrom matches the most Pro Trends on the slate along with Yamamoto. Since he has a slightly higher strikeout prediction and lower implied runs against, I’ll take the Rangers’ veteran over the Dodgers’ starter, although both studs come loaded with upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Shane Baz ($8,800) Tampa Bay Rays (-163) vs. Athletics
Baz is much cheaper than deGrom and Yamamoto, but he comes with a very high ceiling as he takes the mound against the A’s. He has the third-highest strikeout prediction on the board and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections.
In his last start, Baz was masterful against the Royals, allowing three hits in eight shutout innings with nine strikeouts. He showed off his high ceiling with 37.6 fantasy points. He has over 13 fantasy points in five of his last seven outings and is averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game on the year.
Baz has a 4.37 ERA and 4.52 FIP on the year with 86 strikeouts in 92 2/3 innings across 16 starts. He had a bit of a rough patch in late May and early June but seems to have refound his groove based on his last outing against the Royals.
The Athletics are just about league average in most categories for the season, but over the last month, they rank in the bottom 10 teams in the majors in runs, batting average, wOBA, and wRC+. Baz has been a little inconsistent at home, but his ceiling is worth the risk based on how dominant the big righty looked his last time out.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Richard Fitts ($5,500) Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Fitts has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections nd the fifth-highest in THE BAT X projections. He’s risky at home against the Reds, but he brings enough upside as a cheap play that will have very low ownership that he could end up being the key that unlocks a high-ceiling lineup for GPP lineups.
Fitts is 0-3 in six starts in the majors this season with a 4.68 ERA and 6.25 FIP. He only has 21 strikeouts in 25 innings, but he did have his second-best fantasy outing of the year in his most recent start, earning 13.4 fantasy points against the Angels last Wednesday. He gave up two runs in four innings while striking out a season-high six batters in that appearance.
That start was his first since being called back up from Triple-A Worcester, where he has a 4.20 ERA and 3.23 FIP in four starts this season. His strikeout numbers haven’t been great in the minors either, but he did showcase some punchout potential in his start against the Angels.
Fitts is such a cheap play that he doesn’t have to do a lot to be worth considering at this price. In a pretty good matchup at home against the Reds, he’s a long shot that could hit and leave you tons of salary to spend on big bats to stock your GPP lineup with power potential.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

Even with the Astros at Coors Field (more below), the Dodgers have the top stack on the board in what should be a great spot for them at home against the struggling White Sox and starting pitcher Shane Smith ($7,700). Smith has been a nice surprise as a Rule 5 draftee from last year, but he has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 11 runs on 10 hits and five walks.
Shohei Othani ($6,500) is obviously the centerpiece of this stack and has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all hitters this Tuesday night. He has averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game over his last 10 and 12.4 fantasy points per game in his 44 home games this season. Will Smith ($4,800) has also been hot, averaging 9.9 fantasy points per game over his last 10 with three doubles and four homers over that span.
Max Muncy ($4,600) is also a great play after posting at least nine fantasy points in six straight games, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per contest. He also has very strong home splits with 10 homers and a .410 wOBA at Dodger Stadium.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

OF Cam Smith ($4,200) Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies (Chase Dollander)
It’s truly tragic that Jeremy Pena (rib) landed on the injured list just before his team traveled to Denver for a great series at Coors Field. I’ve been riding Pena all season since he moved to the leadoff spot, and he has been excellent for DFS lineups all year. While Pena’s absence is a bummer, the timing of this series is perfect for rookie Cam Smith, who has just started surging. He brings the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield.
Smith is a 22-year-old prospect that the Astros acquired from the Cubs and opted to keep in the majors after his hot spring training. He had an adjustment period early in the year but has found his groove, going 24-for-72 (.347) over his last 19 games with four doubles, four home runs, a stolen base, and a .421 wOBA.
His recent surge has helped him move up to the cleanup spot, where he anchors a solid lineup of options in a favorable matchup against his fellow rookie Chase Dollander ($5,000). Here’s how it looks in our PlateIQ tool, which I prefer to use in dark mode (AKA “Space mode” when looking at the ‘Stros):

1B/3B Abraham Toro ($2,900) Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brady Singer)
Toro is a great value play at either corner infield spot since he’s projected to hit third for the Red Sox against Brady Singer. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate in the aggregated projections.
On Monday to start the series, Toro had 13 fantasy points in the Red Sox rout. He has now hit safely in four of his last five starts, but his salary has still dropped to under $3,000, where he brings lots of value.
Toro has been in and out of the lineup but has still delivered 21 hits in 22 games with a .280 batting average, two home runs, and a .344 wOBA. He’ll be on the strong side of his splits against Singer, since the switch-hitting Toro is hitting .283 against righties with a .357 wOBA.
Marcelo Mayer ($2,900) is another great value to consider from the Sox.
OF Brenton Doyle ($3,700) Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros (Colton Gordon)
If you’re shopping for value in the outfield, don’t forget there are two teams playing at Coors Field this Tuesday. While the Astros will get plenty of deserved attention, the Rockies can bring good value as well. Doyle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on the slate as he goes against lefty rookie Colton Gordon.
Doyle is 13-for-70 (.186) in his last 17 games but does have four doubles, a triple, a home run, two stolen bases, and 12 runs scored. He has been struggling, which is why his price is so low, but he continues to grind away and is starting to barrel up more hits. He has a 59.6% hard-hit rate over that 17-game span with an average exit velocity of 92.6 miles per hour, which shows he’s still making good contact but not getting many results.
On the year, he’s hitting only .155 against righties but an impressive .309 against lefties with a .378 wOBA and 129 wRC+ on that side of the splits. Doyle has good upside, and this seems like a favorable spot to take advantage of his lower salary and still get a very high ceiling.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo credit: Getty Images