The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($11,300) Houston Astros (-147) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Deciding whether or not to pay up for Hunter Brown might be the most important decision on the early slate.
The Astros ace is pretty clearly the best pitcher on the slate. He leads all qualified starters with his 1.88 ERA and is top five in strikeout rate at 31.6%. The Astros have also given him a slightly longer leash this season, with his average start stretching to just over six innings, a career high.
With all of that working for him, he’s the clear leader in median and ceiling projection in our models. However, he’s also $2,000 more expensive than any other pitcher on the slate. That means Brown needs to score about 20% higher than any other starter to pay off his price tag.
A matchup with the solid lineup of the Phillies doesn’t help his case there, especially since they strike out at one of the lowest rates against righties. I’m writing this before ownership projections are up, but I’ll be rostering Brown if he’s a “pay up to be contrarian” piece this afternoon. If he’s the chalk, I’ll probably look elsewhere.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Hayden Birdsong ($8,000) San Francisco Giants (-185) vs. Miami Marlins
Birdsong ranks third in our Pts/Sal projection on Thursday, but there are major question marks about the two arms above him. One of those is Emerson Hancock ($6,000), who is pitching in a game with major weather concerns. The other is Jeffrey Springs ($6,300), who is taking on a Tigers team that ranks third in wRC+ against lefties.
Which leaves us with the somewhat more expensive but much safer Birdsong as my favorite value play. The 23 year-old has a solid 3.25 overall ERA and 3.99 ERA as a starter, with a great matchup against the Marlins. Miami is implied for just 3.3 runs, meaning Birdsong’s overall Vegas data is favorable to Brown’s, despite being more than $3,000 cheaper.
While he doesn’t have the strikeout upside of Brown, he struck out five Miami batters in 5.1 innings of one-run ball the first time they met. That was good for 21 DraftKings points. Plus, that game was in Miami, while Oracle Park in San Francisco is much better for pitchers.
He’s not quite cheap enough that pairing him with Brown is easy, but it certainly helps take some of the salary strain.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($7,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-294) at Colorado Rockies
The only reason it makes any sense that Kershaw is this cheap on Thursday is because he’s pitching at Coors Field. The future Hall of Famer got a late and rocky start to the 2025 campaign, but he’s averaged a bit over 22 DraftKings points per game over his last three starts, good for more than 3x his salary today.
He’s also taking on the Rockies, the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. While Kershaw isn’t the MVP-caliber pitcher he once was, he’s more than good enough to perform well against this Rockies team.
The downside is that Kershaw is more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher at this point in his career, with just a 9.9% swinging strike rate. That’s a bit concerning at Coors Field, but most of the contact he allows turns into ground balls.
That, paired with the Rockies 4.6-run implied total, makes Kershaw slightly too thin for cash games or tighter builds, but I’d say he’s well worth the risk in larger GPPs.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
You also almost have to roster Kershaw — along with one of the other extremely cheap pitchers — to have any shot at affording the Dodgers stack.
Their top five hitters cost more than $6,000 per player for their game in Coors Field, though it’s hard to argue that they’re overpriced. They’ve scored at least eight runs in each of the first two games of their series in Colorado and are implied for 7.8 runs today.
It’s somewhat likely that at least one of their veteran bats at the top gets the day off since it’s the last game of the series. Keep an eye on our lineups page to see when they declare their official lineup. This is one of the later games on the slate so pivoting is somewhat difficult, but if we get a cheaper player or two in the early part of their order, it could make affording them much easier.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jahmai Jones OF ($2,500) Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
I mentioned above that Springs felt like an uncomfortable pitching option because of how good the Tigers are against lefties. Detroit is also implied for more than five runs this afternoon, with weather conditions that boost scoring 10% and home runs 20%.
Jones is extremely cheap and also stands out with his excellent numbers against southpaws in PlateIQ:
The small sample size means I’m not reading too much into it, but a $2,500 #2 hitter for a team with a five-run total is an almost automatic play regardless of platoon splits. I’ll be looking to pair him with some of the Tigers other lefty specialists, though.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($4,100) Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (Michael Lorenzen)
While Diaz isn’t a Jones-level value, he’s a $4,100 leadoff hitter for a visiting team implied for 5.1 runs. I could stop there, and it would probably be enough information to make him worth including in some lineups today.
This game also features even better hitting weather than Detroit, with both home runs and overall scoring boosted 23%. That’s relative to the average game at Kauffman Stadium, which has been a top-five hitter’s park over the past three seasons.
Diaz is hitting .289 with some power (12 home runs), making him a rock-solid play relative to his price. Rays stacks in general are interesting on the afternoon slate, with Diaz being the best value.
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Pictured: Hunter Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
