The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet ($10,700) Boston Red Sox (-172) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday’s slate is on the smaller side, with just six games to choose from on the main slate. Crochet stands out among the rest of the pitchers by a pretty comfortable margin.
He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He owns a 2.06 ERA and ranks in the 85th percentile for xERA. His batted-ball profile is also fantastic, and he has some of the best strikeout metrics in the league. Crochet’s strikeout rate currently sits at 31.3%, which puts him in the 91st percentile.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that he leads all pitchers from a strikeout standpoint in Monday’s projections. His K Prediction currently sits at a robust 8.5, and no other pitcher is above 6.13. That’s a massive disparity, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.12 (per the Trends tool).
Crochet also stands out from a matchup standpoint. The Reds have one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, so their offense tends to struggle when they go on the road. Fenway Park is also a hitter’s park, but it’s not nearly as friendly as Cincinnati’s home stadium. The Reds’ 3.4 implied run total is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, while Crochet is also a pretty sizable favorite.
Add it all up, and he leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection by a pretty wide margin. There’s not a huge gap between Crochet and the other highest-priced pitchers from a salary standpoint, so he’s the easy top choice if spending up.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
George Kirby ($7,700) Seattle Mariners (-163) vs. Kansas City Royals
Kirby is one of the most interesting arms on the slate. He’s been a solid pitcher since arriving in the majors in 2022, posting an ERA of 3.53 or better in each of his first three seasons. He’s also averaged just under a strikeout per inning.
However, Kirby has been limited to just seven starts this year due to injury, and he hasn’t looked like the same pitcher when on the bump. His ERA currently sits at 5.40, and he’s managed just one win. His advanced metrics are slightly better, but his 4.18 xERA still is nothing to write home about.
The good news is that Kirby’s track record suggests this is just a minor speed bump. He should turn things around moving forward, and we saw a glimpse of that in his last outing. He surrendered just one run across six innings vs. the Twins, and he allowed just three hits and one walk.
Kirby will benefit from heading back to Seattle for this start vs. the Royals. T-Mobile Park has been the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball over the past three seasons (per Statcast Park Factors), and the Royals are not an imposing offense. They’re merely 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so Kirby should post another strong outing. His 3.4 opponent implied run total is tied with Crochet for the top mark on the slate, and he’s also a moderate favorite.
The only downside is the strikeout upside. Kirby isn’t an elite strikeout arm to begin with, and the Royals are very stingy in that department. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers, so while they don’t do a ton of damage offensively, they do put the ball in play. It makes Kirby better suited for cash games than GPPs.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Drew Rasmussen ($7,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-178) vs. Athletics
This is a really cheap price tag for Rasmussen, who has put together a phenomenal campaign. He owns a 2.45 ERA, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight outings. Rasmussen is pretty similar to Kirby on paper, but his matchup vs. the Athletics gives him a bit more strikeout upside. Their projected lineup has a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the fifth-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Max Scherzer ($6,500) Toronto Blue Jays (+119) vs. New York Yankees
This is a classic “high risk, high reward” spot for DFS. There is plenty of downside with Scherzer vs. the Yankees, who are an elite offensive squad. Scherzer has not looked like the same pitcher through two starts in 2025, but that is an incredibly small sample size. The Yankees have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, so if Scherzer can recapture some of his old form, he has the potential to be an excellent value at $6,500. He ultimately leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus using THE BAT X.
Chase Burns ($8,000) Cincinnati Reds (+144) at Boston Red Sox
Burns entered the year as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he delivered on that promise in his first start at the MLB level. He racked up six strikeouts through his first two innings, and he finished with eight strikeouts overall. He did surrender six hits and one homer vs. the Yankees, but his matchup vs. the Red Sox should be a lot friendlier. Boston’s lineup is weak on paper after trading away Rafael Devers, so Burns has an excellent ceiling for his price tag. Even if the Reds are careful with his pitch count to start his career, he could still post a big number with just five or six innings.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the New York Yankees:
While using Scherzer as a cheap value SP2 is viable, stacking against him is also very much in play. He started to show signs of regression over the past few years, and it’s possible that the wheels fall off entirely in 2025. Through two outings, he’s pitched to a 5.63 ERA, 6.62 xERA, and 2.25 HR/9, and none of his underlying metrics suggest a ton of room for growth.
The Yankees are capable of making any pitcher look silly. They’re fourth in the league in runs per game, and only the Dodgers have averaged more homers.
Any Yankees’ stack has to start with Aaron Judge, who is having another ridiculous season. Not only is he second in the league with 30 homers, but he’s also batting .356. That’s not quite the .400 pace he was on at the beginning of the year, but there is little question about who the best hitter on the planet is at the moment.
The rest of the Yankees’ top six is also full of guys who feast on right-handed pitchers (via Plate IQ):
Giancarlo Stanton is the only player who doesn’t stand out in that split, and he’s only been back for a short period of time. With more at-bats under his belt, his numbers should improve significantly.
Choosing which batters to stack is a bit more complicated. Each of the top four hitter in their projected lineup are only eligible in the outfield, so you’ll have to omit at least one. Judge is a no-brainer, while Stanton and Trent Grisham stand out as excellent values. That leaves Cody Bellinger as the odd man out in the top projected stack.
The other downside is the projected ownership, which should be plentiful. If you do want to use the Yankees, you’re going to need to be cognizant about ownership with the rest of your selections. If you’re not, you could very easily end up with a duplicated lineup.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Abraham Toro, 1B/3B ($2,900) Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (Chase Burns)
While Burns has plenty of upside vs. the Red Sox, it’s also not unreasonable to use batters against him. After all, he posted a 5.40 ERA and 4.71 xERA in his first outing, and pitching in Fenway Park is no picnic.
Toro stands out as a nice value at $2,900 as the Red Sox’s projected No. 3 hitter. He’s taken over at first base following the injury to Tristan Casas, and he’s more than held his own. He specifically owns a 125 wRC+ against right-handers, and that figure jumps to 144 when facing a righty at home.
Add in dual eligibility at the corner infield spots, and Toro is a solid way to save some salary in both cash games and GPPs.
Gary Sanchez, C ($3,000) Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
Sanchez hasn’t had a super productive year at the dish, but he has a long track record of hitting for power. He has a career .254 ISO against southpaws for his career, and he’ll be facing a potentially exploitable one in Patrick Corbin. Corbin has pitched significantly better this year than he has in the past couple, but it’s possible that changes as the calender heats up and the ball starts flying. He surrendered nine hits and five runs in his last outing, which also came against the Orioles.
Sanchez is also expected to hit fifth in the Orioles’ lineup, and finding a reasonably priced catcher with a premium lineup spot is tough. He ultimately checks a bunch of boxes on this slate, and he’s second in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS ($5,500) Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)
Kirby will likely be the most popular SP2 today, so using Witt in lineups where you’re fading him is an interesting idea. Witt hasn’t hit for quite as much power this season, but he’s still an absolute demon on the bases. He trails only Judge in terms of projected ceiling, and he’s not projected for nearly as much ownership. He stands out as a solid leverage option in our MLB Models.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Getty Images
