The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slate stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Chris Sale (L) $11,800, BOS @ TOR
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,900, LAD vs. ARI
Sale got off to a shaky start this season, but he’s been as dominant as ever over his past 11 games. He’s pitched to a 2.78 ERA and 1.98 FIP while averaging a ridiculous 14.64 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s struck out double-digit batters in nine of those outings, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +9.73 on DraftKings.
Sale has been roughed up a bit over his past two starts, allowing eight earned runs over 11 innings pitched, but his Statcast data suggests he was unlucky in those appearances. He limited opposing batters to an average distance of 197 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 17%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Sale is in a solid spot today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has struck out in 25.6% of at-bats vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Sale a slate-high K Prediction of 9.5. He’s also a massive -300 favorite, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.96 (per the Trends tool).
He’s an elite option in all formats.
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
Buehler is an interesting pivot away from Sale in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He was rocked in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs over 5.2 innings vs. Rockies in Coors, but he was absolutely dominant over his previous eight starts. He pitched to a 1.64 ERA and 11.13 K/9, and he allowed one earned run or fewer in six of those outings. With that in mind, it’s easy to write off his game in Coors as fluke.
Buehler has a fantastic matchup today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, and they rank just 22nd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Buehler is also a -235 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.15 on DraftKings.
The only downside with Buehler is his lack of elite strikeout upside. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.07 over the past 12 months, which puts him well behind Sale over that time frame. The Diamondbacks also own the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. The result is a K Prediction of just 7.5.
Buehler is a better option today on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He also leads all pitchers on FanDuel with seven Pro Trends.
Values
There aren’t a ton of appealing value options on today’s slate. It definitely feels like a night where you should pay up for Sale or Buehler if you can, especially in cash games.
Mike Clevinger is someone with stud-like upside, but he has a lot of question marks at the moment. For starters, he was rocked in his first start after coming off the disabled list, allowing seven earned runs over 1.2 innings against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. He struggled with control, allowing three walks over that short time frame, and batters did some serious damage against him when he did manage to put the ball in the zone. They posted an average distance of 274 feet in that outing, which represents an increase of +63 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
It’s also unclear how deep he’ll be able to pitch into today’s game vs. the Royals. Clevinger has made just four starts this season, and he’s pitched no more than 4.2 innings in his past two outings. It’s possible that he’s going to be limited in some capacity.
Still, it’s hard to write him off completely given his matchup. The Royals have been pretty mediocre against right-handed pitchers this season, and their implied team total of 4.0 runs is the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. Clevinger has also averaged a K/9 of 11.75 over the past 12 months, which trails only Sale’s mark among today’s starters. His K Prediction of 8.9 ranks second on the slate.
Overall, he offers considerable risk and upside on today’s slate.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Clevinger
The Chris Archer trade will go down as an unmitigated disaster for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s been awful this season, pitching to a 5.50 ERA and 5.80 FIP, and the two players they gave up for him have blossomed into All-Star caliber options for the Tampa Bay Rays (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows).
That said, the one thing that Archer still does well is pile up strikeouts. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.26 over the past 12 months, and he’s in a nice spot for strikeouts today vs. the Chicago Cubs. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 26.7% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Archer a solid 7.6 K Prediction.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also impressive. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 200 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 31%, all of which represent sizable decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Pitchers with comparable recent Statcast marks and strikeout ability have historically been nice fantasy assets, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.10 on DraftKings.
Archer is also one of the better pure values on DraftKings, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Fastballs
Tyler Anderson: He’s making his MLB debut today vs. the Houston Astros, which makes him an unknown commodity on a slate filled with poor pitchers. He posted 33 strikeouts and limited opposing batters to a .234 average over his last 28.1 Triple-A innings, which is enough to make him intriguing.
Kyle Gibson: He doesn’t wow you in any one particular area, but he has solid marks across the board in today’s matchup vs. the Oakland Athletics. He’s also posted solid Statcast marks over his past three starts, and his $7,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 7. Chris Iannetta (R)
Total Salary: $24,800
The Rockies are at home in Coors Field tonight, but they could actually have relatively low ownership. They’re currently implied for 6.6 runs, which is well below the Astros’ slate-high mark of 7.6. People who choose to stack one of the Coors Field teams will likely gravitate towards Houston. The Rockies are also an expensive option, so those who choose to pay up at pitcher won’t be able to afford them.
They’re in a great spot today against left-hander Wade Miley. He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 3.39 ERA, but his 4.48 FIP suggests he’s due for some regression. The Rockies have also obliterated left-handers at home this season, posting a .398 wOBA and .231 ISO. They can do some serious damage in this matchup.
Story returned from the Injured List on Tuesday, and he’s currently priced down at just $4,500 on DraftKings. That’s an absolute steal for Story against a southpaw at Coors. He’s historically dominated in that situation, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.64 on DraftKings, and he’s expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup.
If you’re looking to go in a cheaper direction, consider the Cincinnati Reds. They own the top four-man stack on FanDuel:
- 1. Nick Senzel (R)
- 2. Joey Votto (L)
- 3. Eugenio Suarez (R)
- 5. Yasiel Puig (R)
Total Salary: $13,300
Their implied team total of 5.4 runs is much more modest than some of today’s top teams, but it still ranks seventh on the slate. More importantly, their Team Value Rating of 89 is tied for fourth on FanDuel, making them one of the better pure values. That’s important if you’re looking to pay up at pitcher.
They’re taking on Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who has crashed back to reality after posting a 3.50 ERA last season. He’s pitched to a 5.60 ERA through his first 72.1 innings this season and has struggled with both walks (4.35) and HRs (1.87) per nine innings. He’s also been roughed up over his past two starts, allowing opposing batters to post an average distance of 225 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 54%.
Votto has been excellent over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.88 on FanDuel, but he remains priced down across the industry. He’s been strong against right-handed pitchers in particular since the beginning of June, posting a .363 wOBA, .242 ISO, and 122 wRC+.
Other Batters
JaCoby Jones checks a lot of boxes on today’s slate. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Tigers, and his $3,900 salary on DraftKings makes him extremely cheap for a leadoff batter. The Tigers are also currently implied for 5.0 runs vs. Ross Detwiler, and that matchup also puts Jones on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s also hit the ball well over the past 15 days, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet. Add it all up, and comparable batters have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.22. He’s a nice source of savings on today’s slate.
Travis d’Arnaud is another potential source of value at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He’s also expected to bat first in the lineup, which is rare for a catcher. There have only been 67 other instances of a catcher batting first with a comparable salary in our database, and those players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.34. The Rays have an implied team total of 5.0 runs vs. Orioles left-hander John Means, so they’re in a solid offensive spot as well.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis. And if you’re looking to bet on sports in New Jersey, check out our how-to guide.
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Pictured above: Rockies SS Trevor Story (27)
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
