Tuesday features four Divisional Series games, with the slate starting at 2:08 p.m. ET.
- Framber Valdez (L), $10,000, HOU @ OAK
- Tyler Glasnow (R), $9,600, TB vs. NYY
Valdez has been an absolute unit for the Houston Astros this season. The knock on him last season was that he never provided any length. In this shortened season, he has been able to complete seven innings or more six times.
In a start against the Oakland Athletics this year, he went seven innings, allowing one earned run and struck out nine.
The Bales Model has Valdez as their second-least favorite pitcher for this slate (currently, no pitcher is listed for the San Diego Padres). The reason for this is his high price tag. It makes sense for him to be the highest priced pitcher on this slate, but his projected 32.74 FanDuel points does not exceed other pitchers’ projections by much.
With the way the ball was flying around yesterday in both games, I think two key stats for today are HR/9 and K/9. Unsurprisingly, Valdez rates well in both. This year he owned a 0.6 HR/9 and 9.7 K/9.
I think Valdez is fine — he has earned the top-of-the-slate pricing, but I also think I am more than OK paying down.
Regular DFS players are surely aware of Glasnow’s strikeout capabilities. In the 2020 regular season, he posted an absurd 14.3 K/9.
So, how did Glasnow pitch to a 4.08 ERA (3.66 FIP)? By allowing 1.7 HR/9.
Glasnow has faced this New York Yankees team three times in 2020. He has totaled 13 2/3 innings, six earned runs and 22 strikeouts for an average of 33 FanDuel points per game.
I would not play Glasnow on this slate. The Yankees have played three postseason games, scoring 12, 10 and nine runs. They are implied for 3.9 runs tonight. Blake Snell was the farthest a starter has gone against this lineup in their first three playoff games and he was only able to record 15 outs.
I think there is greater safety elsewhere than Glasnow.
The pitchers I like for the slate are the top two on the Bales Model. They are only a few hundred dollars cheaper than Glasnow is.
Walker Buehler is the highest-rated pitcher on the Bales Model at $8,900. He is projected for 30.72 FanDuel points.
Buehler is similar to Glasnow, pretty strong with strikeouts and can be snakebitten by the home run ball. His 2020 HR/9 was 1.7 and K/9 was 10.3.
Buehler has only allowed four home runs in 40 1/3 career innings pitched in the postseason.
The San Diego Padres did have the highest scoring team in the regular season, but scored four, 11 and four runs in their three games against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are heavily favored to win this series and are -150 Vegas favorites for tonight’s game. I like Buehler to come out and make a statement tonight.
My favorite play of the day is Max Fried. He comes in as the second highest-rated pitcher on the Bales Model at $8,700.
The Miami Marlins are a total surprise to be here, while the Atlanta Braves expected to be here. “Here” being this far into October.
The Marlins are projected to have eight right-handers in their lineup. Fried, a left-handed pitcher, actually fairs better against righty hitters this year. RHB are .209/.290/.316 off of Fried while LHB are .220/.292/.390.
Fried loses some of the strikeout potential that the other starters have, as his K/9 is only 8.0 in 2020. He is coming off of a dominant performance of seven innings, no-run, five strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round.
The Atlanta Braves are the biggest favorites of the day at -193. The Marlins have the lowest implied run total of the day at 3.4. Fried is a few hundred dollars cheaper than all of the other pitchers mentioned, and I really like the rate at which he is getting RHB out. I really like the lefty today.
I do not see using Deivi Garcia or Sean Manaea. Garcia’s inexperience could have him on a shorter leash with a long-man behind him and Manaea against that Astros offense is scary. I have a feeling that we don’t know the Padres’ starter by 2 p.m. either.
The highest-projected stack is courtesy of the Atlanta Braves:
- 2. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 5. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
This group comes in at a $16,600 salary and is projected for 47.4 FanDuel points. They are facing Sandy Alcantara, who had never pitched in the postseason prior to last week. Their lifetime numbers off Alcantara are interesting:
- Freeman: 2 for 8, with a double
- Albies: 3 for 10, with a double
- Ozuna: 2 for 2, with a double
- Acuna: 0 for 8
Marcus Semien is the highest-rated hitter on the Bales Model and is just too low at $2,900. Hitting leadoff means he is going to get the maximum amount of opportunities. Semien is 2 for 4 with a home run lifetime against Valdez. He’s coming off back-to-back, two-hit games.
He costs a pretty penny, but Giancarlo Stanton has three home runs in three postseason games. They are actually the only hits he has so far. In the last two games, he also has three walks. Stanton is seeing the ball really well and is 2 for 4 with a home run off of Glasnow.
To get exposure to the Dodgers’ lineup, I love targeting Will Smith. He is generally in the 5-7 range of their lineup, and has a significantly cheaper price than most of their bats — $2,900 tonight. According to baseballsavant, he is the third-fastest catcher in the league, so he should not be removed in late-game scenarios for a pinch runner. Smith is 1 for 4 off of Zach Davies and 1 for 2, with a double, off Chris Paddack and has never faced Mike Clevinger.