The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a four-game early slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature a wide variety of stud pitchers, with five owning salaries of at least $10,200 on DraftKings:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU @ DET
- Aaron Nola (R) $11,200, PHI vs. WAS
- Blake Snell (L) $10,500, TB vs. CLE
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,200, ARI @ COL
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,200, CLE @ TB
Cole owns the top Vegas data of the day vs. the Detroit Tigers. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .302 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for just 3.2 runs. Cole is also a substantial -255 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.02 and Consistency Rating of 70.1% on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Cole has been an excellent strikeout pitcher, owning a K/9 of 12.47 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 7.5 ranks sixth among today’s pitchers. He’s also exceeded his 12-month marks in both distance and hard-hit rate over the past 12 months, so he appears to check all the boxes. He makes a lot of sense on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
It’s hard to get too excited about Nola vs. the Washington Nationals. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 20.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Nola a mediocre K Prediction of 6.0. He also enters today’s contest in poor recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +22 feet and hard-hit differential of +9 percentage points.
Snell and Carrasco will be squaring off in Tampa Bay, and each has appeal for daily fantasy baseball. Snell has been electric over the past month, averaging 29.1 DraftKings points per game. Somehow, his salary has actually decreased by $1,900 after his most recent start. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 187 feet, which represents a decrease of -17 feet compared to his 12-month average. This could be a rare opportunity to buy low on one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Carrasco will be taking the mound on the road, but that could actually be a positive for him: He’s pitched to a 2.87 ERA and averaged a 10.56 K/9 when outside of Cleveland this season. Pitching in Tampa gives him the added benefit of a Park Factor of 81, and the Rays projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 25.5% over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 8.2 ranks second on the day, making him an excellent target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Corbin has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight starts on DraftKings, but that could come to an end vs. the Colorado Rockies. Pitching in Coors is always risky, and he owns an opponent implied team total of 5.1 runs. Corbin has also been hit pretty hard over his past two starts, allowing an average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 44%. The Rockies have been really tough on left-handed pitchers this season, leading the league in wOBA and ISO.
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Values
Stephen Strasburg is one of the most interesting pitchers on today’s slate. On one hand, he has a ton of strikeout upside vs. the Phillies. Their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 25.9% over the past 12 months, giving Strasburg a slate-high K Prediction of 8.8. He’s also been dominant from a Statcast perspective over his past two starts, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -22 feet and hard-hit differential of -20 percentage points.
On the other hand, he’s seen a noticeable dip in his average fastball velocity of late. His average velocity over his past two starts has been 1.4 mph lower than his 12-month average, which is especially concerning considering that Strasburg has historically leaned heavily on his above-average heater. Historically, pitchers with a comparable velocity decrease have averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.05, and that number jumps to -2.41 in the second half of the season. He carries risk even though he looks like one of the best options on the slate.
Felix Pena has put together a nice little stretch for the Los Angeles Angels, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 12 starts. He has more strikeout upside than usual today vs. the Texas Rangers, whose projected lineup has struck out in 26.0% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Pena also owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -23 feet and is a strong -173 favorite, which gives him appeal at just $7,300 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Luis Severino: What the hell has happened to Severino recently? He appears to be a shell of the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season, leading to an abysmal Plus/Minus of -9.18 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings. Still, Vegas is giving him respect with an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs, and he’s too talented to pitch this poorly forever.
David Price: He’s the second-largest favorite of the day at -241, while his opponent implied team total is tied for third. That said, he does have a difficult matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, who have posted a .324 wOBA over the past 12 months.
Chase Anderson: He’s another pitcher with a difficult matchup, but no pitcher enters today’s slate in better recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and hard-hit rate of 26%; all three represent sizable decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Yulieski Gurriel (R)
- 7. Marwin Gonzalez (S)
Total salary: $22,000
The Astros lead all teams on the early slate with an implied team total of 5.4 runs, and their Team Value Rating of 76 on DraftKings makes them the best value as well. They have an exploitable matchup vs. Tigers left-hander Daniel Norris, who has pitched to a HR/9 of 1.86 over the past 12 months. Each of the stacked batters will also have the splits advantage vs. the lefty.
The Astros will likely command the highest ownership on the early slate, which could make Gonzalez an important differentiator for stacks. He’s posted an average distance of 230 feet over his past nine games, which represents an increase of +21 feet compared to his 12-month average.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
- 5. Matt Holliday (R)
Total salary: $14,700
The Rockies’ implied team total of 5.1 runs is tied with the Yankees and Diamondbacks for the second-highest mark on the main slate. Stacking the Rockies at Coors is never cheap, but the combined salary of their top stack is actually pretty affordable. LeMahieu and Holliday both cost $3,400 or less on FanDuel, while Story’s $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. The Rockies also enter today’s contest in good recent form, with only LeMahieu owning a negative distance differential among the stacked batters.
Other Batters
Only two batters own 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel — Story, who will undoubtedly be one of the highest-owned batters on the main slate, and Red Sox projected No. 9 hitter Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley costs just $2,400 on FanDuel and should have minimal ownership, and batters with similar Pro Trends in the bottom third of the lineup have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.32. He’s an interesting option if you’re looking for exposure to the Red Sox, who are implied for 5.5 runs.
Finding cheap batters could be important if you’re looking to roster one of the top pitchers. One hitter who fits that description is Jose Martinez, who is priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings but is projected to occupy the No. 2 spot in the lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s a pretty good hitter, owning a .360 wOBA and .155 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +11 feet.
Adam Frazier is another affordable option at $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Cardinals right-hander Daniel Poncedeleon, and he’s got some of the most impressive Statcast data in baseball over his past 11 games: 237-foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 54% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
