The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split-slate: There’s a six-game early slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a five-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a trio of elite pitchers, all of whom pitch early:
The group is headlined by Corey Kluber, who turned in a typically dominant outing on Opening Day. He limited the Mariners to two runs over eight innings while striking out eight, but he was a tough luck loser as the Indians could muster just one run. His Statcast data were equally impressive, as he allowed an average batted-ball distance of just 195 feet and an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour.
Amazingly, Kluber could actually be a contrarian option on today’s slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is the highest mark among the stud trio, and he’s just a moderate -142 favorite. His matchup with the Angels also limits his strikeout upside: Their projected lineup has posted a K rate of just 22.8% over the past 12 months, and Kluber’s resulting K Prediction of 4.6 ranks just seventh on the slate.
Both of the other studs are pitching in New York, where the weather could potentially be a huge factor. You’ll obviously want to monitor the chances of rain heading into lineup lock — both games are showing a 65% chance of precipitation at the time of writing — but the wind conditions could be almost as important. Heavy winds gusting out to center correlate very highly with the over, while winds blowing in typically lead to an under.
Luis Severino was one of the most underrated pitchers in MLB DFS last season, but that might not be the case today. He leads the slate in both moneyline odds (-229) and opponent implied team total (3.2), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been excellent values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
His Statcast data from his most recent start were also strong: 184-foot average distance, 84-mph exit velocity, 18% hard-hit rate, 63% ground-ball rate. All of those numbers were better than his marks in 2017, which were already elite. He’s projected for just 4.7 strikeouts on today’s slate vs. the Rays, but his combination of Vegas and Statcast data is extremely enticing.
Noah Syndergaard is still working his way back from a lat injury that cost him the majority of last season, but he offers massive upside today vs. the Phillies. He struck out 10 batters in just six innings in his first start, and the projected Phillies lineup has struck out in 28.6% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 6.0 is the top mark on today’s slate, while his opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied with Severino’s.
But his Statcast data from his most recent start are pretty concerning. He allowed an average distance of 230 feet, which represents a differential of +30 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials and salaries have been poor investments:
He still offers tons of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but Kluber and Severino are likely safer options for cash games.
Values
The pitching options are much more modest on the main slate, but Felix Hernandez stands out as someone who could outpitch his salary. He battled both injuries and ineffectiveness last season, but his Opening Day start provides a lot of optimism that he can bounce back in 2018. His traditional numbers were solid — four strikeouts and zero runs allowed over 5.1 innings — and his Statcast numbers were out of this world. He posted an average distance of 156 feet, exit velocity of 81 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 7%, and pitchers with comparable Statcast data and salaries ($8,800) have historically been unreal values on DraftKings:
He’s in a great spot today vs. the Giants, whose projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .305 over the past 12 months. Facing the Giants in San Francisco also rewards Hernandez with a perfect Park Factor of 100.
Jon Gray is another interesting value option on today’s slate. He pitches for the Rockies, which means that approximately half of his starts each year take place in the worst pitching environment in all of baseball. He won’t have any such problems today in San Diego, where pitchers have historically averaged the highest Plus/Minus on DraftKings:
Gray’s strikeout rate of 9.03 over the past 12 months is the second-best mark on the slate, and the projected Padres lineup has a strikeout rate of 27.5% over the past year. His K Prediction of 5.2 is the fourth-highest mark on the main slate.
Finally, Aaron Sanchez is the largest favorite on the slate by a pretty significant margin. He currently has -201 moneyline odds, which make him a bit of an anomaly at just $6,200 on FanDuel. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds and salaries have been awesome values:
But Sanchez is still looking to recover from an injury that limited him to just 36 innings last season, and he was roughed up by the Yankees in his first start this season. He’s also never been much of a strikeout pitcher, owning a career K/9 of just 6.89. Add it all up, and Sanchez has more downside than the typical -201 favorite.
Fastballs
Dallas Kuechel: He’s the best early-slate value on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He doesn’t possess the same strikeout upside as Kluber, Severino, or Syndergaard, but he is a -193 favorite.
Johnny Cueto: He hurled a gem in his first start this season, allowing just one baserunner over seven innings. He has the lowest opponent implied team total on the main slate at 3.4 runs, and he benefits from the 100 Park Factor in San Francisco.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
They’re implied for 4.5 runs against Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin, which is tied for the third-highest mark on the early slate. The Dodgers owned the fifth-highest wOBA and second-highest ISO against left-handed pitchers last season, and the featured stack has three guys who have feasted on southpaws over the past 12 months:
Kiké Hernandez is especially appealing given his 15-day/12-month distance differential of +11 feet.
On the main slate, the top FanDuel slate belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
They’re currently implied for 4.4 runs, which ranks just fourth on the slate. They have a difficult matchup against Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez, which should keep their GPP ownership rates relatively low. What the Brewers do have going for them is their recent Statcast data. Each of the stacked batters owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +17 feet to start the season:
Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun and Eric Thames all stand out as excellent values on FanDuel given their Bargain Ratings of at least 82 percent.
Other Batters
Dixon Machado is one of the most intriguing players on today’s slate. He’s projected to bat leadoff for the Tigers vs. Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, who was absolutely rocked in his first start this season. The wind is also currently forecast to be blowing out to left at greater than 20 miles per hour, which should theoretically help right-handed hitters like Machado. His Statcast data to start the season are also impressive, especially his distance differential of +33 feet.
The Blue Jays’ implied team total of 5.4 runs is the top mark on the main slate, which will likely make them popular to stack. Justin Smoak is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players piece, so let’s focus on Randall Grichuk instead. At FantasyLabs, we have a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (Rec BBL), which measures the difference between a player’s rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Grichuk’s Rec BBL of +73 is one of the top marks on the slate. His poor fantasy results to start the season will likely result in reduced ownership, but his Rec BBL suggests some positive regression could be heading his way. That makes him an ideal stacking candidate for GPPs, especially on FanDuel with his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Two of the four top ISO splits on today’s main slate belong to members of the Colorado Rockies. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have both destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months, which could make them an interesting stack in San Diego. They’re facing an extreme ground-ball pitcher in Clayton Richard, but he did post an ERA of just 4.79 in 2017. Neither player is projected to be overly popular on today’s slate, with Story projected for 9-12% ownership and Arenado for 5-8%.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: (from left to right) Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana
Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA Today Sports
