The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with stud pitchers, but two stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,600, WAS @ PHI
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,200, NYM @ CHI
Scherzer has won the NL Cy Young award in each of the past two seasons but is putting together arguably the best season of his career in 2018. He owns career-best marks in both ERA and K/9 and ranks second in the NL in WAR (per FanGraphs).
He’s in a nice spot vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. His Vegas data is a little weaker than usual – he owns an opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs and moneyline odds of just -114 – but he makes up for that with elite strikeout upside. The Phillies have posted the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup owns a strikeout rate of 26.3% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Scherzer leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 10.3 and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.75 on DraftKings with a comparable mark (per the Trends tool).
Scherzer also enters today’s contest in elite recent batted-ball form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 188 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 18%; all three marks represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. Pitchers with that kind of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data are rare and have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.51 and Consistency Rating of 75.0% on DraftKings.
deGrom ranks first in the NL in WAR this season and is likely the only pitcher standing between Scherzer and his third straight NL Cy Young. He’s pitched to a ridiculous 1.71 ERA, but playing for the Mets has resulted in just eight wins. It will be interesting to see if voters are willing to overlook his subpar record in what should be a tight race.
In today’s slate, he will almost undoubtedly be a contrarian option vs. the Chicago Cubs. The windy conditions at Wrigley Field benefit the bats, giving the Cubs an implied team total of 4.8 runs. deGrom has had an opponent implied team total of 4.5 runs or greater just six times since 2014, and he’s averaged an awful Plus/Minus of -8.04 on DraftKings in those situations. He could still be worth some consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his projected ownership of just 5-8% on DraftKings and 0-1% on FanDuel, but Scherzer has the clear edge for cash games.
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Value
Carlos Carrasco isn’t exactly a value at $10,300 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel, but he does represent a nice savings from Scherzer and deGrom. He has the top Vegas data among all pitchers, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs and moneyline odds of -220 vs. the Minnesota Twins. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.83 on FanDuel.
Carrasco does have some concerns, however. The Twins have actually fared pretty well against him this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -4.71 for Carrasco over five matchups. He’s also facing them at home, and Carrasco has some of the most bizarre home/road splits in baseball: His ERA of 4.35 in Cleveland is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his road ERA, and his home strikeout rate is roughly 2% lower as well.
Felix Hernandez is well past his prime at this point in his career. His ERA of 5.64 and K/9 of 7.10 in 2018 would both be new career-lows, and he pitched poorly enough to be demoted to the bullpen.
He’s back in the rotation today because of an injury to James Paxton, and he’s in a prime spot vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup owns the worst splits-adjusted marks in both wOBA and strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and right-handed pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.77 against them in 2018. Hernandez has also pitched better over the past 15 days, limiting opponents to an average distance of 189 feet, exit velocity of 85 mph, and hard-hit rate of 28%. He’s appealing at just $5,500 on DraftKings.
Lance Lynn is another pitcher with a strong matchup. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, who are implied for just 3.9 runs. The Yankees own a massive implied team total of 6.2 runs, which makes Lynn a significant -235 favorite. He’s affordable at just $7,800 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.89. He makes a lot of sense as a SP2 on DraftKings, and his K Prediction of 6.7 gives him upside for GPPs as well.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s opposing Scherzer and the Nationals at home, and he dominated them for 36.40 DraftKings points in his most recent outing. He’ll likely have reduced ownership as a slight underdog, and his $10,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 66%.
Cole Hamels: He’s in a really intriguing spot vs. the New York Mets. The windy conditions will obviously hurt him just as much as they’ll hurt deGrom, but the Mets have been the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitchers this season. Hamels has been outstanding since joining the Cubs, owning an ERA of 0.79 through his first five starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. Brian Dozier (R)
Total Salary: $25,200
The Dodgers are implied for a slate-high 6.6 runs, but you’re going to have to pay up to stack them. Each of the stacked batters cost at least $4,400, and Turner, Machado, and Bellinger each cost at least $5,000. Still, their Team Value Rating of 78 ranks third on DraftKings, so they look like a decent value despite their price tags. A full Dodgers stack may also carry less ownership than expected given the presence of Scherzer.
They’re taking on Rangers right-hander Ariel Jurado, who has been awful through his first 32.1 innings in the big leagues. He’s pitched to a 6.40 ERA and managed a K/9 of just 3.34, so the Dodgers should put a lot of balls in play against him. Dozier and Turner in particular have smoked the baseball recently, so they could do a lot of damage against Jurado in the prime hitting conditions at Arlington.
The Dodgers also have the highest-rated stack on FanDuel, so let’s focus on a cheaper option instead. The Royals’ Team Value Rating of 87 is the top mark for all teams with an implied team total of less than 6.2 runs, which makes them a nice choice if you’re paying up at pitcher:
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Alex Gordon (L)
- 3. Salvador Perez (R)
- 5. Rosell Herrera (S)
Total Salary: $11,400
They’re taking on Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, who has given up some concerning contact over his past two starts. He’s allowed his opponents to compile an average distance of 235 feet, which represents an increase of +21 feet compared to his 12-month average. Conversely, each of the stacked batters for the Royals has exceeded their 12-month distance marks by at least +14 feet over the past 15 days.
Fastballs
Brett Gardner is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for a Yankees offense that has an implied team total of 6.2 runs. He’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings and has been smoking the baseball recently, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +24 feet. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.09 on DraftKings.
Travis Shaw has been hitting the ball a long way recently, posting an average distance of 253 feet over his past 10 games. That could pay off in a big way today against Reds right-hander Anthony Desclafani, who has struggled with the long ball in 2018. He’s allowed a HR/9 of 2.24, and that number jumps to 2.59 specifically against left-handed batters.
Padres right-hander Jacob Nix is someone you might want to try and take advantage of today. He hasn’t spent a ton of time in the majors this season but has allowed left-handed batters to post a .437 wOBA through his first three starts. Kyle Seager is one lefty in particular who has appeal given his strong Statcast marks over his past 12 games, and his $2,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Salvador Perez (13) and Alex Gordon
Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
