The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday offers a 15-game main slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
There are multiple games that could be affected by inclement weather, so be sure to monitor their status up until lineup lock.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
It’s always an exciting slate when Justin Verlander and Chris Sale are among the top pitching options.
Vegas is giving the edge to Verlander: The Astros are -241 moneyline favorites, and the opposing Rays are implied for a meager 2.7 runs. It’s a fantastic spot against an underwhelming Tampa Bay lineup with a 28.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, Verlander sports a slate-best .883 WHIP and top-five 10.70 SO/9 over that same time, and he has a predictably strong 8.6 K Prediction. He also has historically dominated as at least a -200 moneyline favorite (per our Trends tool):
Sale, though, has the superior K Prediction (8.8) and far better recent Statcast data. While Sale sports an unreal average batted-ball distance of 157 feet and exit velocity of 83 mph, Verlander has an average distance of 243 feet and exit velocity of 92 mph.
Both have comparably middling matchups in terms of wOBA, but Sale faces a projected Twins lineup with a paltry 21.8% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Regardless, Verlander should soak up a ton of ownership, which only increases Sale’s appeal in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Mike Clevinger is the only pitcher on the slate in the same stratosphere as Sale in terms of recent Statcast data, owning an elite average distance of 175 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph and hard-hit rate of 33% over his past two starts. He could be an excellent tournament play, as the opposing White Sox are implied for only 3.6 runs and mediocre against righties, ranking ninth-worst in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) this season (FanGraphs).
Values
Dereck Rodriguez owns an excellent 70% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s also a solid value on DraftKings for just $6,700. Rodriguez and the Giants are set to take on an underwhelming Marlins team whose projected lineup owns a .288 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Only the Padres are worse in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Rodriguez owns a subpar 4.9 K Prediction, but the Giants are -167 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for just 3.3 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been reliable value plays:
The thought of rostering Eric Lauer and his slate-worst 2.04 WHIP is terrifying, but he costs only $4,500 on DraftKings with an 81% Bargain Rating and has a fantastic matchup against the Athletics with a 6.9 K Prediction. Their projected lineup has been terrible against left-handed pitching, sporting a 32.5% strikeout rate and .286 wOBA over the past 12 months. Pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a +1.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 57.7% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Jameson Taillon: As unbelievable as it sounds, Taillon may be the top GPP option in the slate even though he has a below-average 1.403 WHIP. His 7.6 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark, and he is reasonably priced at $8,400 and $7,700 on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Pirates are favorites (-113 moneyline odds), and the projected Brewers lineup has a 29.2% strikeout rate and .292 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Luke Weaver: The Cardinals-Phillies game is essentially a pick’em, and Weaver has disadvantageous distance and exit velocity differentials of +18 feet and +5 percentage points over his past two starts, but Weaver could provide upside with a solid 7.0 K Prediction.
Domingo German: His 11.44 SO/9 is the slate’s third-highest mark, but he could have low ownership in a suboptimal matchup against a Mariners team that ranks 10th in wRC+ against righties this season and owns a low 22.4% strikeout rate. The Yankees are -176 moneyline favorites, and pitchers with comparable strikeout upside and moneyline odds have averaged a +1.56 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top (non-Coors) five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Nationals, who are implied for 5.3 runs:
The Nats are set to take on Orioles pitcher David Hess, who is prone to the long ball (2.16 HR/9). Anthony Rendon is projected to hit cleanup, and he’s in great recent batted-ball form, sporting a 241-foot batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Nearly all stacked batters are on the positive side of their batting splits, and Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper own elite wOBA and ISO numbers against righties over the past 12 months:
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Rockies, who have a slate-high implied total of 6.5 runs and a top-two Team Value Rating of 80:
The conditions tonight could be better for hitters at Coors Field, but the game still has a high 11.5-run over/under. It’s still a great spot for the Rockies against Mets pitcher Jason Vargas, who owns poor Statcast data and the slate’s third-highest HR/9. Projected to lead off, D.J. LeMahieu stands out as one of the top players in Models, crushing left-handers over the past 12 months with a .422 wOBA and .256 ISO. He boasts an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 52% over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
With the Rockies and Mets squaring off at Coors Field, both teams will likely be popular. Of the two, the Giants might be the preferred target for GPPs, as their lower implied team total (5.1) could make them the lower-owned team. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto could be worth considering, as both sports elite splits against right-handed pitching:
Their Statcast data also stands out with recent batted-ball distances of 220 feet or higher. Conforto, in particular, has been doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 50% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Joey Gallo is due for a breakout with a +34 Recent Batted Ball Luck and is in a prime matchup against Royals right-hander Jason Hammel. He boasts fantastic Statcast data over the past 10 games, including an average distance of 252 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 76%.
Projected to lead off for those same Rangers, Shin-Soo Choo stands out as one of the highest-rated batters with solid Statcast data in his own right, sporting a recent batted-ball distance of 249 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 43% each. Historically, batters with comparable lineup spots, implied team totals, and Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.58 with an impressive 21 Upside Rating.
Several of the Angels are intriguing, given their implied total of 5.1 runs. Mike Trout has a .456 wOBA and .330 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and Albert Pujols has been crushing the ball lately with a hard-hit differential of 18 percentage points. The Angels’ 81 Team Value Rating on DraftKings is the highest mark on the slate, and they are currently experiencing reverse line movement in their favor.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
