The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a split-slate: There’s a six-game early slate starting at 2:05 p.m. ET and a four-game main slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is light on elite pitchers, with only three players owning salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Masahiro Tanaka stands out as the clear top option of the day. He was extremely impressive in his first outing this season, allowing just one run while striking out eight batters over six innings. He has an excellent matchup today vs. the Orioles, whose offense is implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Tanaka is a massive -240 favorite, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have historically been awesome investments (per the Trends tool):
In addition to having the best Vegas data of the day, Tanaka is arguably in the best strikeout spot as well. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.04 over the past 12 months, which is the second-best mark on the main slate, and the projected Orioles lineup has struck out in 28.3% of at-bats vs. right-handed pitchers over the same time frame. His K Prediction of 7.9 is the third-best mark on the slate. Unfortunately, he’s available only on FanDuel today, as DraftKings has chosen to omit the Yankees-Orioles game from the main slate. For more on Tanaka, make sure to check out today’s Three Key MLB Players piece.
Robbie Ray is the other stud option on the main slate, and he’ll be looking to rebound after a disastrous first start. The new humidor in Arizona didn’t seem to help him, as he allowed six earned runs and 10 base runners over five innings. His Statcast data from that start aren’t any better: 245-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and a 50% hard hit rate. All of those numbers are higher than his 12-month averages. Things don’t figure to get much better for him today vs. the Cardinals, with Ray currently listed as a +115 underdog.
But no pitcher on today’s slate possesses as much strikeout upside as Ray, who has posted a K/9 of 12.60 over the past 12 months. Even in his disastrous last start, Ray still managed to strikeout eight batters over five innings. He’s also pitching outside of Chase Field, and the road has historically led to good things for Ray as a member of the Diamondbacks:
He could fly a bit under the radar given his first outing and current Vegas data, making him intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
David Price headlines the early slate, and he’s coming off a great first start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed just four base runners over seven innings, and his pitch count of 78 suggests that he could’ve gone deeper. He’s facing the Rays again, and their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .266 against southpaws over the past 12 months. They’ve also posted a strikeout rate of 26.4% against left-handed pitchers, so Price has significant strikeout upside. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where he has a slate-high Bargain Rating of 99%.
Values
Jon Lester was one of the most overvalued DFS pitchers last season, and he continued that trend with his first start of 2018. He allowed four runs and 10 base runners in just 3.1 innings, earning a Plus/Minus of -19.27 on DraftKings. Even so, his Statcast data from that start were not that bad. He posted an average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 20%, all of which are the best marks on the main slate. We have a proprietary metric at FantasyLabs called Recent Batted Ball Luck (Rec BBL), which is defined as the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Lester’s mark of +81 suggests that he was significantly unlucky in his first start of the season. He has nice strikeout upside vs. the Brewers, who had the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers last year.
On the early slate, Nick Pivetta looks like another pitcher who got significantly unlucky in his first start. He posted a Plus/Minus of -7.65 vs. the Braves, but his average distance of 191 feet represented a differential of -25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pivetta has shown the ability to strike batters out at the major-league level, evidenced by his K/9 of 9.59 over the past 12 months, and he has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Mariners. Their projected lineup has posted a .271 wOBA and 27.1% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re currently implied for a slate-low 3.8 runs.
Fastballs
Adam Wainwright: He’s expected to be the chalk on the DraftKings main slate given his projected ownership in excess of 40%. After lineups lock, his ownership rate can be found in our DFS Ownership Dashboard. He’s a slight -124 favorite, and his K Prediction of 6.1 ranks third on the slate, but he’s posted a dreadful 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the past 12 months.
Daniel Mengden: He’s the third-largest favorite on the early slate at -141, which makes him slightly intriguing vs. the Rangers. Their projected lineup has the second-highest splits-adjusted K rate on the slate at 28.7%, and Mengden posted a distance differential of -13 feet in his first start this season.
Steven Brault: He has a horrid WHIP (1.60) and K/9 (6.29) over the past 12 months, but his -134 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite on the DraftKings main slate. He also benefits from being a left-handed pitcher in Pittsburgh, where he has a Park Factor of 93.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
Their implied team total of 5.1 runs ranks second on the early slate, and they’ll likely be a popular target against Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann. He’s posted a HR/9 of 1.61 and a WHIP of 1.58 over the past 12 months, and his average batted-ball distance of 223 feet is the worst mark among all of today’s starters.
The stacked batters for the White Sox are in solid recent form, as all four own positive 15-day/12-month distance differentials. Leadoff hitter Yoan Moncada in particular has smoked the ball, posting a distance differential of +41 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have historically been awesome values:
The stacked batters are also very affordable on FanDuel, with Moncada, Matt Davidson, and Nicky Delmonico all owning Bargain Ratings of at least 82 percent.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are second on the DraftKings main slate with an implied team total of 4.6 runs. Ownership is going to be condensed on the small slate, so stacking the Pirates in an unconventional manner could help with lineup diversification. The above stack avoids projected No. 3 hitter Starling Marte and includes projected No. 8 hitter Jordy Mercer, who should serve as a differentiator.
The Pirates are taking on Reds right-hander Homer Bailey, who has a horrid 1.70 WHIP over the past 12 months. His Statcast data from his first start are also unimpressive, with his 223-foot average batted-ball distance representing an increase of 23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Only Corey Dickerson has a negative 15-day/12-month distance differential among the stacked batters, so the Pirates are in good recent form.
Other Batters
The Cardinals could be an intriguing team target for those brave enough to stack against Ray. Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong have historically crushed left-handed pitching, and they have two of the three highest ISO splits on the DraftKings main slate. DeJong has already clubbed three home runs this season, and his average distance of 236 feet represents an increase of +17 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
The Yankees’ implied team total of 5.6 runs is the top mark on the day, and they combined to hit three home runs on Wednesday. One of them came off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton, who has been scorching the ball to start the season. He’s posted an average distance of 265 feet and a hard hit rate of 63%, and batters with comparable Statcast marks and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.11.
Christian Villanueva exploded for three home runs on Tuesday, yet he remains priced near the bare minimum on DraftKings at $2,500. He’s currently projected to occupy the No. 5 spot in the lineup for the Padres, and he’ll have the splits advantage against Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson. His Statcast data is obviously impressive considering that he’s gone yard three times in seven at-bats this season, and he’s posted an ISO of .231 vs. southpaws over the past 12 months.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Robbie Ray
Photo Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA Today Sports
