The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: The 1:05 p.m. early slate differs by site — FanDuel features six games; DraftKings, eight — while both sites have a five-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers on today’s slate with salaries of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Gerrit Cole is the only one of these hurlers available on the main slate, which should make him sufficiently popular. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .325 wOBA and 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.1 runs is the lowest mark on the main slate by a significant margin:
The Astros are currently implied for 5.0 runs, giving Cole moneyline odds of -250. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds have been awesome values (per the Trends tool):
Cole’s 12-month K/9 of 9.09 is the second-best mark on the main slate as is his current K Prediction of 7.0. He’s going to be tough to avoid on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Zach Greinke is the highest-priced pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the early slate, but he could potentially be a contrarian option. He has a tough matchup vs. the Cardinals, resulting in moneyline odds of just -102. His Statcast data from his first start of the year are also downright terrifying, particularly his average distance of 278 feet. That represents a differential of +66 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and salaries of at least $8,000 have historically been horrible investments on DraftKings:
That said, Greinke did manage to strike out nine batters in his most recent start, and he possesses arguably the most strikeout upside on today’s slate. His 12-month K/9 of 9.96 ranks third on the early slate, but his K Prediction of 7.7 ranks first. Greinke should also benefit from pitching in Busch Stadium, which has historically been much friendlier for pitchers than Chase Field.
Jose Berrios sits on the opposite end of the spectrum from Greinke. He doesn’t offer nearly as much strikeout upside, evidenced by a K Prediction of 6.3 that is tied for sixth on the slate, but his Statcast data from his first start were outstanding. He posted an average batted-ball distance of 172 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of just 4%, all of which represented significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. Berrios has a tough matchup today vs. the Mariners — their projected lineup has a wOBA of .357 against right-handers over the past 12 months — but his moneyline odds of -156 are the fourth highest on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds and recent distances have been nice targets:
This game is also expected to feature terrible hitting conditions, which gives Berrios a perfect 100 Weather Rating.
Values
Just below the stud pitchers, there’s a trio of early-slate near-studs who could be preferred targets for many player. Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray, and Trevor Bauer all combine enticing Vegas odds with significant strikeout upside:
- Darvish: 7.5 K Prediction, -150 moneyline odds
- Bauer: 7.3 K Prediction, -219 moneyline odds
- Gray: 7.2 K Prediction, -205 moneyline odds
Bauer leads the group with an opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs, which is the best mark on the early slate by a margin of 0.5 runs. He will likely be the most popular target of the group.
Gray went just four innings his first start, but his Statcast data from that start were impressive. He induced ground balls at a 70% clip, resulting in an average distance of just 189 feet. He has a nice matchup with the Orioles, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.3% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Gray could also be asked to pitch a little deeper into this game than usual after the Yankees relievers combined to pitch 10 innings yesterday.
Finally, Darvish is coming off a disastrous first start vs. the Marlins, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -18.29 on DraftKings. However, his Statcast data from that start suggest that he was actually pretty effective in terms of his batted-ball profile. He posted an average distance of 191 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 23%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (Rec BBL), which is defined as the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Darvish’s mark of +47 suggests that he was one of the more unlucky pitchers in his first start this season. His 12-month K/9 of 10.33 trails only Bauer’s on the early slate, which makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate.
No one stands out as an obvious challenger to Cole on the main slate, but Mike Minor could be an intriguing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He owns the top K Prediction on the slate at 7.7, thanks to his K/9 of 11.82 over the past 12 months. However, he allowed an average distance of 291 feet in his first start of the season, which is the worst mark on the slate by more than 50 feet. He looks like a volatile option vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Fastballs
Michael Wacha: He’s actually a slight favorite today against Greinke, and his opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is the second-lowest mark on the early slate. He’s priced at just $6,300 on DraftKings, which gives him a slate-high Bargain Rating of 72%.
Marcus Stroman: He’s second on the main slate with an implied team total of 4.1 runs, and his recent batted-ball profile is one of the best on the slate. The big issue with Stroman is his lack of strikeout ability, evidenced by a K/9 of just 7.74 over the past 12 months, but his current matchup with the Rangers could provide some optimism in that department. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.8% of their at-bats against righties over the past 12 months, which is the highest splits-adjusted mark on the main slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees own an implied team total of 5.8 runs, which is the top mark on the early slate by a significant margin. They have one of the best matchups of the day vs. Orioles right-hander Chris Tillman, who has posted a dreadful 1.99 WHIP and 2.39 HR/9 over the past 12 months. The Yanks have some of the top power bats in the league in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, both of whom possess ISO splits of at least .342 against right-handed pitchers.
Neil Walker could be an important differentiator for those looking to stack the Yanks. He’s posted an average distance of 242 feet over his first six games this season, which is the top mark on the roster. That’s yet to translate to fantasy scoring, but his Rec BBL of +62 on FanDuel suggests that he’s been unlucky. He should have a lower ownership rate than many of his more obvious teammates.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
Their implied team total of 4.2 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the main slate, so it’s a bit surprising to see them rating this highly. They do benefit from facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate in JC Ramirez, who gave up five runs and allowed an average distance of 237 feet in his first start this season. The above batters are all also on the positive side of their batting splits against Ramirez:
Olson in particular has destroyed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .463 wOBA and .455 ISO, and he’s also posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +8 feet. This stack should carry minimal ownership on today’s slate.
Other Batters
Coors Field is available on the main slate for the first time all season, which will make the Rockies one of the most popular targets. They lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.0 runs. Charlie Blackmon was covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players piece, so let’s focus instead on Trevor Story. He has mashed the baseball recently, posting an average distance of 277 feet. That represents an increase of +42 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is ridiculous when you consider that only one of his seven games this season has come at Coors Field.
If you are going to stack Coors on the main slate, you’re going to need to find some cheap fill-ins. One of those guys could be Jesse Winker, who’s projected to bat leadoff for the Reds at just $2,900. He’s set to face Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl, and Winker has posted a .438 wOBA and .275 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Trea Turner will occupy the leadoff spot for the Nationals today against Mets left-hander Steven Matz, who has been awful over the past 12 months. He’s posted a 1.57 WHIP and 1.81 HR/9, and he’s been particularly poor against right-handed batters. Turner has been priced down to just $3,900 on FanDuel, which represents a decrease of $800 since the start of the season.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Marcus Semien and Matt Olson
Photo Credit: Stan Szeto-USA Today Sports
