The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with elite pitching talent, with five pitchers possessing a salary of at least $10,200 on DraftKings:
- Blake Snell (L) $12,400, TB vs. BAL
- Aaron Nola (R) $11,800, PHI @ NYM
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $11,600, CLE @ TOR
- Patrick Corbin (L) $11,000, ARI vs. ATL
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,200, HOU @ BOS
Snell has been fantastic this season for the Tampa Bay Rays, sporting a sparkling 2.02 ERA and a K/9 of 10.50. He’s been even better over his past 10 starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +7.70 on DraftKings.
He’s in a wonderful spot to continue that production today vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup has posted a dreadful .293 wOBA and 25.6% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they’re implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs. Snell’s moneyline odds of -236 make him the largest favorite on the slate, and his K Prediction of 9.6 ranks first as well. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.29 (per the Trends tool). Only seven other pitchers have matched this trend in 2018, which goes to show just how elite of a spot this is.
If there is a red flag with Snell, it’s his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed hard contact on 57% of balls in play over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +22 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. Still, that concern seems minor against a team as offensively challenged as the Orioles. He leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $10,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Nola is another pitcher with a nice matchup. He’s taking on the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has stumbled to a .289 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.2 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, while Nola’s K Prediction of 7.1 ranks fifth. The only real concern with Nola is the weather situation in New York, with the current forecast calling for a 21% chance of precipitation at game time.
Corbin has been phenomenal over his past eight starts, particularly from a strikeout perspective. He’s tallied 65 Ks in just 51.1 innings pitched, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.03 on DraftKings.
Unfortunately, his current matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves doesn’t seem like a good one. The Braves own the third-lowest strikeout rate vs. left-handers this season, giving Corbin a mediocre K Prediction of 6.4. His Statcast numbers from his past two starts are also concerning: He’s allowed an average distance of 214 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 46%; all three represent sizable decreases compared to his 12-month averages. He’s been able to overcome his batted-ball profile in those starts thanks to playing in some pitcher-friendly venues, but it could be a different story at Chase Field.
Carrasco could be an intriguing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s pitching on the road vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, which could actually be a positive for Carrasco: He owns an elite 2.68 FIP and a 10.16 K/9 when pitching away from Cleveland this season. He’s also the second-largest favorite on the slate at -203 and should command lower ownership than usual.
Cole rounds out the stud tier, and he might be the toughest pitcher to analyze. On one hand, he has a brutal matchup vs. the Boston Red Sox. They lead the league in runs per game this season and have been particularly tough against right-handed pitchers, sporting a league-best wOBA of .346. On the other hand, Cole has seen a price decrease of $2,300 on DraftKings over the past month, which could make him a nice buy-low value. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also outstanding, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -33 feet and hard-hit differential of -9 percentage points.
Historically, pitchers with comparable Statcast marks and monthly salary decreases have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.18. His matchup might make him too risky for cash games, but he looks like an elite option for GPPs.
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Values
Chris Archer has not been impressive since arriving in Pittsburgh but did show some signs of improvement. He limited the Braves to just one run over six innings in his most recent start, and his 203-foot average distance from his past two starts is encouraging. He’s still an elite strikeout pitcher as well, evidenced by a K/9 of 9.48 in 2018.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Miami Marlins, who have averaged the fewest runs per game this season. Their implied team total of 3.2 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, and Archer is also a significant -196 favorite. He’s quite affordable at just $7,300 on DraftKings.
Felix Pena could be a nice source of cheap strikeout upside vs. the Chicago White Sox. He’s posted a K/9 of 9.26 over the past 12 months, while the White Sox projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.9% against right-handers over the same time frame. His resulting K Prediction of 7.6 is the third-highest mark on the slate. He’s also posted a distance differential of -12 feet over his past two starts, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Seattle Mariners but enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 188 feet, an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 28%. He always boasts strikeout upside given his 12-month K/9 of 9.87.
Clayton Kershaw: He’s been priced down to $8,800 on DraftKings, which is probably warranted given his matchup vs. the Rockies at Coors Field. Still, he’s looked like the Kershaw of old recently, limiting each of his past eight opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Alex Gordon (L)
- 3. Hunter Dozier (R)
- 4. Ryan O’Hearn (L)
- 5. Jorge Bonifacio (R)
Total Salary: $19,600
The Royals are implied for just 4.4 runs vs. the Minnesota Twins, but they still represent a nice value at their current salaries: Their Team Value Rating of 63 ranks fifth on DraftKings. Their top stack also costs just $19,600, which could be important on a slate with tons of high-priced pitching options.
They’re facing left-handed pitcher Stephen Gonsalves, who will be making just his fourth start at the MLB level. His first three starts have been nothing short of a disaster, resulting in an ERA of 9.90. He’s been equally poor vs. right- and left-handed batters, allowing a wOBA of at least .482 to batters on both sides of the batter’s box. The Royals also enter today’s contest in excellent recent form, with each of the five stacked batters owning positive distance and hard-hit differentials over the past 15 days.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack when building by projected points belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
Total Salary: $17,800
Despite the fact that Coors Field is on the slate, the top implied team total actually belongs to the Indians at 5.4 runs. They’re taking on Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada, who has allowed a HR/9 of 1.88 over the past 12 months. He’s been hit extremely hard over his past two starts as well, allowing an average distance of 248 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 40%. Estrada is typically a low strikeout pitcher – he has a K Prediction of just 2.8 vs. the Indians – so his recent Statcast data is extremely important.
The Indians have collectively hit right-handed pitchers really well this season, ranking fourth in wOBA and sixth in ISO, and each of the stacked batters is on the positive side of their batting splits against Estrada. Lindor enters today’s contest in particularly good form after going yard twice on Thursday, and he has the highest ceiling projection on today’s slate.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter is on the negative side of his batting splits against Tigers left-hander Daniel Norris, but he’s still posted a .385 wOBA and .279 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. The Cardinals are implied for 5.0 runs, and Carpenter is projected to occupy the key leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s a particularly good value on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.
The Dodgers have a difficult matchup vs. Jon Gray, who has been outstanding since the All-Star break. Still, Justin Turner deserves some attention playing at Coors Field. He has 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.11 on DraftKings.
If you’re looking to buy low on someone, consider Brandon Belt. He’s posted an average distance of 242 feet over his past 11 games, yet he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.30 over that time frame. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +88, suggesting that some positive regression could be heading his way in the future. He’s playing in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball in Milwaukee, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Chase Anderson.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
