Friday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Studs
There are only two pitchers today with FanDuel salaries above $10,000, and there’s also a sizable gap between the most expensive pitchers — Jon Lester, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Cole Hamels — and the rest of the field:
Intriguingly, deGrom is the only one of the five studs listed above to exceed salary-based expectations in his last start, and it was a gem: He did allow four hits and two runs, but he also struck out 13 batters across seven innings for 58.0 FanDuel points. As you might expect, he has the best recent Statcast data of the fivesome, allowing a batted ball distance of 185 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 24 percent over his last two games. That said, his matchup isn’t great against the Nationals, who lead the MLB with a .353 team wOBA in 2017. Vegas, however, doesn’t seem worried, as the Nationals are currently implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs, but the matchup is something to consider.
Note: Jacob deGrom has been scratched Friday. Here’s a blurb on the situation from our News feed.
deGrom has been dealing with a stiff neck and won’t suit up Friday. Matt Harvey will take the mound for the Mets in their matchup against the Nationals Friday. Harvey will pitch on normal rest and look to continue to thrive at home. Overall, he’s averaged 20.24 DraftKings points per game with a 72 percent Consistency Rating at Citi Field since 2014. Harvey will face off against a Nationals lineup that is currently implied to score a slate-low 3.0 runs. He could benefit from winds gusting in at four miles per hour.
Verlander has the worst Statcast data of the fivesome — he got crushed by the Indians in his last start, allowing three home runs and nine earned runs in four innings — but he also boasts the highest K Prediction of the group at 8.4. He faces the Twins, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs and rank 25th in the league this year with a .129 team ISO. Verlander’s salary has dropped $900 since that last game on FanDuel, and he leads this group with a 77 percent Consistency Rating over the last year. For what it’s worth, this is the highest K Prediction Verlander has had since 2012 — by a lot. His 10 highest K Predictions in the past have all been between 7.4 and 7.8, and he’s absolutely crushed in those games (per our Trend tool):
Kluber has been the worst pitcher of the group to start 2017 — he’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in all three starts and has averaged a poor -7.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus during that time — but he’s also facing the White Sox, who own the third-lowest team wOBA (.280) in the league. They are currently implied for 3.3 runs — the second-lowest mark in the slate — and Kluber is a nice -160 moneyline favorite given his offense’s potency. Unfortunately, given his now-reduced price tag of $9,900 and Chicago’s low run implication, it is unlikely that he’ll come with much of an ownership discount. (Pro subscribers can review tournament ownership in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.) Still, Kluber has a high 7.8 K Prediction, and when he’s on he has as much upside as any pitcher in the world: The second-highest FanDuel game in our database is his 90-point performance a couple years ago:
Values
Young Oakland lefty Sean Manaea will likely pop in Player Models today for a couple good reasons: He’s just $7,400 on FanDuel, he has an opposing run implication of only 3.5 runs, he’s struck out 16 batters in 10.1 innings over the last two games, and his Statcast data is solid. Over the last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 178 feet and induced ground balls at a 61 percent clip. According to our Recent Batted Ball Luck metric, he’s actually been a bit unlucky to score “just” 61.0 FanDuel points over his last two games. That said, it is clear that Manaea’s pitches are being monitored: He carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning but was promptly pulled after the A’s allowed two runs on an error. Manaea’s no-hitter was still alive, but he was approaching 100 pitches on the day. Such is the downside of Manaea and other young prospects: Even though their data intrigues, their upside is often limited due to (potential) pitch counts.
Drew Pomeranz is just $6,700 on DraftKings and is tied with Verlander for the highest K Prediction (8.4) of the slate. He’s been able to hit value this season despite not going for many innings because of his strikeout upside: Through two games, he’s made 16 batters whiff through just 10.1 innings pitched. If he’s unable to go past four or so innings, that definitely limits his upside, but his Statcast data suggests he’s been better than his ERA suggests: Over those two games, he’s allowed a hard hit rate of just 28 percent. The Orioles have power in their lineup, but several of their main guys — Manny Machado and Chris Davis, for example — actually own negative splits against lefties. It is rare for guys below $7,000 on DraftKings to have K Predictions above 8.0. Among the 14,724 pitchers since 2014 in our database, only 29 have hit those marks:
Fastballs
Cole Hamels: He has perhaps the most elite Statcast data over the last two games, as evidenced by his 172-foot batted ball distance, 88 MPH exit velocity, and 22 percent hard hit rate.
Alex Wood: It’s unclear how many innings Wood will go — he’s auditioning for a starting rotation spot with Rich Hill dealing with blisters again — but he’s just $6,800 on DraftKings and comes with a high 8.1 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. As usual, we’ll build a five-man DraftKings stack (using player ratings from the Bales Model) and then do a four-man stack on FanDuel:
Ah, the Superdome Coors Field is back in our lives. That dynamic always dominates a slate, and it’s likely to do so again today. That said, today is a little different: Although this stack is the highest-rated five-man stack on DraftKings, there are actually other teams implied for similar run totals in the Cubs and Dodgers:
Still, this is a potent Colorado lineup: Three of the five batters — Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story — have ISO marks of at least .200 against right-handed pitchers. Story is particularly intriguing: He has a massive 77 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score, as he’s averaged a -2.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season despite posting a batted ball distance of a whopping 248 feet.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to the LA Angels, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs against the Blue Jays’ Mat Latos, who was called up from Triple-A this week since regular starters J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez are dealing with injuries:
The Angels have the second-highest Team Value Rating (TVR), which is defined as thus:
A 0 to 100 grade showing a team’s historical value based on their live implied runs and collective salaries on a given DFS site
Value is exactly why this stack sits at the top of the list today and also why it doesn’t include superstar Mike Trout. This stack costs just $10,500 — projected leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar (per our Lineups page) is the highest-priced hitter at just $2,900. For reference, a 1-2-3-4 stack of the Rockies today would cost a collective $16,600. Even if you include Trout at his $4,900 price tag — switch Trout in for projected No. 8 hitter Danny Espinosa, for example — the stack would cost just $12,600. This is what TVR is designed to measure: The Angels are implied for 0.2 runs less than the Rockies, and yet their collective salaries are much lower.
Batters
If we restrict our Player Models to look at batters only in the top-five spots of the order and then build a lineup based solely on Recent Batted Ball Luck, which is defined below . . .
The difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days
. . . a 1-3-4-5 stack of the Cardinals sticks out:
By most accounts, the Cardinals have stunk offensively in 2017: They rank 27th in team wOBA (.283) and 23rd in team ISO (.137). That said, they’ve likely been unlucky. Take Matt Carpenter, who has missed salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games despite crushing the ball: Over the last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 262 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 48 percent. Given those marks, he should be scoring a lot more fantasy points, and betting on some regression to the mean is likely a wise move in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has a .252 past-year ISO against right-handed pitchers and faces Wily Peralta tonight.
Over his first three games of the season, Miami lefty Adam Conley has been quite poor, allowing a batted ball distance of 230 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 45 percent. He’s in a pitcher’s park today, but the Padres could still take advantage of the struggling pitcher. Wil Myers is projected to bat second for the Padres, and he’s been very solid to start the year, as evidenced by his 41 percent hard hit rate. San Diego has already seen positive — and reverse — line movement, as the Padres’ total has increased 0.4 runs since opening despite getting just 29 percent of the moneyline bets:
There are some cold games tonight — eight of the 15 games tonight are currently projected to be 60 degrees or cooler — so taking some batters from warmer games could be a nice move for GPPs. According to our Trends tool, there is a clear relationship between temperature and batter production:
The warmest game tonight is projected to be the Dodgers-Diamondbacks affair in Arizona at 81 degrees. Chase Field has often been jokingly called “Coors Light,” as it is considered the second-best hitters park behind Coors. Our Trends tool confirms this as true:
- Coors Field: 10.01 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.8 Plus/Minus
- Chase Field: 8.88 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +1.3 Plus/Minus
- Miller Park: 8.27 average DraftKings points for 1-5 batters, +0.7 Plus/Minus
While everyone chases Coors Field batters, it could pay off to chase Chase Field. Corey Seager is one of the highest-rated batters in the DraftKings Bales Model and comes with a .234 ISO versus righties over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
