Vegas Bargain Rating
I have been studying Vegas implied odds in daily fantasy golf for a while. What I’ve found is that, because of the correlation between DraftKings salaries and Vegas implied odds to win a tournament, using an extreme stars-and-scrubs lineup approach is optimal for PGA Tour DFS contests.
Because the correlation between Vegas odds and DK salaries is very strong, we can predict what a player’s salary should be based solely on Vegas odds. Measuring the difference between that number and a player’s actual salary, we can find inefficiencies in pricing and create essentially a ‘Vegas Bargain Rating’ (VBR), which can show us the discount or premium available on any given golfer’s Upside.
Upside and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
The 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
The question this week, as mentioned in my column yesterday, is whether the smaller field — it’s almost one-third less than a normal PGA event — will warrant a change in strategy. In a usual week, about 50 total players on DraftKings will be less than $7,000. That gives us a lot of choices and low salaries to pair with top golfers if we want to go extreme stars-and-scrubs.
This week, there are 21 golfers in that range, and although that is still a decent percentage of the total field the number of golfers in the very-low range (below $6,000) is only seven. If you wanted in a normal week to fit in three stars — say, Jason Day at $12,100, Dustin Johnson at $11,600, and Bubba Watson at $10,100 — you could do so. Their combined salaries leave enough room for three $5,400 golfers. This week, though, there aren’t any $5,400 golfers in the slate.
Stars-and-Scrubs is Basically Not Possible
I guess my point is this: While the salaries of the overall field still warrant a stars-and-scrubs approach, it is quite difficult actually to put together a lineup due to the small field and condensed salary range.
The VBR data, however, isn’t worthless this week by any means. It still shows us the incredible value of Jason Day, again priced at $12,100 but with 15.4 percent odds to win the tournament. Relative to the field and its Vegas-based Upside, he should be priced near $16,000. Available at a huge discount, Day will be a steal in tournaments if he is anywhere below 25-percent owned, especially given the small size of the field.
Dustin Johnson is quite a value as well and has probably been the best overall golfer on Tour this season. While it’s difficult to go extreme stars-and-scrubs with Day+Dustin+Other Star Golfer, it is definitely feasible to go Day+Dustin+Four $7,000 Guys. In fact, it might be the most optimal tournament strategy in terms of maximizing your odds of locating the winner of the tournament while also balancing your lineup and chances to have six golfers who fare well.
The 2016 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Vegas Bargain Ratings
Alright, enough of my strategy musings. Good luck, and here are the VBRs for the week:
