Yahooooo! There are 11 games on the Yahoo main slate that begin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles are on bye.
This piece highlights my top overall plays, values, and best tournament plays for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at each position while using our Player Models. I will specifically be referencing the Bales Model.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Quarterbacks
Top Play
Josh Allen ($41) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not crazy about the price but, if paying up, I will likely go with Allen because the game will be in his hands, and there are multiple ways he can produce fantasy goodies. The Bucs are ninth in rush defense DVOA, but the Bills prefer to spread out defenses and let Allen do his thing anyway. While he’s only scored three touchdowns on the ground this season, he still has racked up 422 rushing yards. This game has the highest total on the slate at 53.5, so points should be scored in this one. He has seven games with at least 20 DraftKings points, with two of those over 35.
Top Value
Taysom Hill ($28) @ New York Jets
Hill has five games in his career that he’s started and attempted at least 15 passes. In those contests, he’s produced 24.24, 18.52, 23.58, 19.94, and 24.66 DraftKings points. He’s a terrible real-life quarterback, but he’s a god when it comes to fantasy. Most of that is due to his rushing prowess. Last week, despite going only 19-of-41 through the air with four interceptions, he rushed 11 times for 101 yards. The Jets are 30th in rush defense DVOA, Alvin Kamara is set to return, which should be a positive for Hill, and the Saints are favored by 5.5 points, so the game script should be a favorable one. In his career, Hill has 39 red-zone carries.
Top Tournament Play
Cam Newton ($27) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Newton was awful last week as he went 5-of-21 for 92 yards, which resulted in 8.18 DraftKings points. The matchup wasn’t a good one, though, as the Dolphins blitz at the second-highest rate in the league, which is kryptonite for Cam in both the pass and run game. The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack in blitz rate and are 29th in pass defense DVOA. Cam has 25 to 30 DraftKings point ceiling, so the price and probable low ownership make him an appealing tournament option this week.
Running Backs
Top Play
Austin Ekeler ($36) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are 31st in rush defense DVOA. Now, Ekeler hasn’t received 20 carries in any game this season, but he has 33 red-zone carries. He’s also a beast in the passing game with 71 targets on the season, with 13 of those in the red zone. The Giants allow the 12th-most targets to running backs.
Top Value
Josh Jacobs ($17) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 26th in rush defense DVOA, but Jacobs only put up 6.1 DraftKings points in the last meeting because of the blowout nature of the game. Despite carrying only seven times for 16 yards in that game, he did receive five targets with a rush and a target in the red zone. Since that game, Kenyan Drake was lost for the season, and Jalen Richard is in COVID protocols. Last week, he received nine targets and could receive a similar share this week. The price is too cheap for his expected role.
Top Tournament Play
Saquon Barkley ($19) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Since returning to action, Barkley has been underwhelming at best. He’s produced 8.6, 7.3, and 10.4 DraftKings points while rushing six, 13, and 11 times. He has received six, five, and nine targets in the passing game, though. The ownership will likely be low for Barkley, and at some point, he could get going. The Chargers are dead-last in rush defense DVOA, so things set up well for that scenario to present itself.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Tyreek Hill ($30) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Hill went for 83 yards and two touchdowns in the last meeting against the Raiders, who are 23rd in pass defense DVOA. In addition, while they are second in pass rush according to PFF, they have fallen to 25th in adjusted sack rate. Hill has received at least 10 targets in eight games this season and has two multi-touchdown games. He’s gone for 42.1 DraftKings points, a ceiling that is unrivaled on the slate.
Top Value
Tee Higgins ($19) vs. San Franciso 49ers
The 49ers are third in rush defense DVOA, so the offensive attack should tilt towards the air in this one. Over the last two games, Higgins has received eight and 14 targets while going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown in each contest. That’s been good for 20.4 and 24.3 DraftKings points.
Top Tournament Play
Mike Evans ($21) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Vegas Dashboard has this game with the highest total on the slate at 53.5, so points should be scored. The Bills have had one of the best defenses all season, sixth in rush defense DVOA and first in pass defense DVOA. They are without Tre’Davious White, though, who is their best cornerback. As a result, Evans should be matched up against either Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace, who are both graded below 70 according to PFF. The ownership should be half of that for Chris Godwin, and Evans always has massive upside, like the three-touchdown game he had against the Bears earlier in the season.
Tight End
Top Play
Travis Kelce ($32) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
He’s received at least six targets in every game this season, with five in the double-digits. In the last game against the Raiders, Kelce hauled in eight of 10 targets for 119 yards. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position and the fourth-most targets.
Top Value
Ricky Seals-Jones ($14) or John Bates ($10) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Logan Thomas is done for the year, so one of these two will get the bulk of the snaps and targets. Seals-Jones hasn’t played since Week 10 and is questionable for this week. The Cowboys have allowed the 11th most targets and fantasy points to the position.
Top Tournament Play
Foster Moreau ($13) @ Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone flocked to the Island of Moreau last week and was immensely disappointed. Well, Darren Waller is questionable for this week, and another trip to the island could be in store. The ownership should be minuscule due to recency bias but let’s not forget that he caught six of six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown the other game he filled in for Waller. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Defense
Top Play
New Orleans Saints ($20) @ New York Jets
Have you seen Zach Wilson play? Exactly. Fine, he looked competent against the Eagles last week, but it’s a big step up in quality as the Saints are 12th in pass defense DVOA and 19th in adjusted sack rate while the Eagles are 24th in DVOA and 27th in adjusted sack rate. The Saints have racked up 26 sacks, three fumble recoveries, 14 interceptions, and two touchdowns.
Top Value
Seattle Seahawks ($14) @ Houston Texans
Davis Mills could start for the Texans this week. In the eight games that he’s played this season, he’s thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 22 times. Seattle has racked up 19 sacks, four fumble recoveries, seven interceptions, and one touchdown.
Tournament Play
Carolina Panthers ($19) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers are fifth in pass-defense DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate. The Falcons are 25th in pass blocking, according to PFF. Matt Ryan has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 26 times this season. The Panthers have racked up 32 sacks, six fumble recoveries, eight interceptions, and one touchdown.
