DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Pocono: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the HighPoint.com 400

Pocono Raceway plays host to this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, where drivers are set to compete at the longest non-drafting track of the year.

Pocono’s 2.5-mile, flat layout with three turns has earned it the nickname the Tricky Triangle. A bit of extra trickery is thrown in this weekend from the discrepancy between the two practice groups Saturday.

Group A’s practice session came under notably slower track conditions, meaning we’ll need to adjust their times upward to account for that when comparing to Group B drivers. In doing so, it’s possible we may find some hidden value for Sunday’s DFS slate.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.

Pocono DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Chase Elliott ($9600): Thanks to a mishap in qualifying, Elliott is going to start 35th out of the 36-car field. At a race with only 160 laps, there aren’t a ton of dominator points to shell out, especially in a race where strategy comes into play, frequently shaking up the frontrunners.

That makes place differential all the more valuable. Add in Elliott’s price tag, which is a very strong discount from his upper $10k or even $11k price tags we’ve seen in the past, and his solid — albeit not spectacular — practice times in the slower group, and Elliott is one of the chalkiest NASCAR DFS plays of the year.

Elliott is also projected for the highest fantasy score among drivers on PrizePicks at 57.5 fantasy points. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Kyle Busch ($10,500): Rowdy had a poor qualifying lap, but his practice times more than make up for the 25th-place starting position.

Busch posted the second-fastest practice time in Group B, and while he didn’t make a long run, his overall practice speed was top of the board.

I am a bit concerned about his upside in tournaments, since he never turned a full five-lap run despite running 11 practice laps, suggesting he came in multiple times for changes. That does make him an underweight candidate in large-field tournaments, especially with his usage projected above his optimal %. However, in cash games with the way Pocono is, you just have to stick him in and hope for the best.

After all, Rowdy absolutely dominates at Pocono, having crossed the finish line first or second in each of the last three races here.

Ryan Preece ($6600): Preece was in the faster practice group, so while we do have to adjust his practice ranking down for that, he still sticks out as a mid-pack car based off of that adjustment.

Given that he starts 34th after a rough qualifying effort, it’s easy to see how he can make up plenty of places on the track to become a prime place-differential value play.

Pocono DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Denny Hamlin ($9600): If we just look at raw practice time, Hamlin comes in only seventh in single-lap and 10th in five-lap average speed.

However, that’s where we need to account for the fact that the two groups practiced under changing track conditions. By adjusting for this, Hamlin has one of the fastest cars in the field.

Hamlin has crossed the line first or second in four of the last six Pocono races. A fast driver with a dominant track history must make up a good chunk of your tournament portfolio.

Ryan Blaney ($9800): By applying the same adjustment to Blaney as we did Hamlin above, Blaney becomes a super-sneaky tournament play.

Blaney was actually faster than Hamlin over five consecutive laps while running in the same group. He was slightly behind on single-lap speed, but that multi-lap consistency is enough for me to back the former Pocono winner in his Team Penske Ford as a bit of a tournament surprise to combat all the Toyota and Chevy love out there.

Erik Jones ($6700): Jones is the direct pivot off of Preece, coming in $100 more expensive and starting 10 places farther forward, limiting his median value.

But I’m not worried about his median.

Jones projects for nearly the same ceiling as Preece at nearly the same price point, meaning they should run fairly close together in my Perfect % metric. That is indeed the case, as Preece projects optimal 20.2% compared to Jones’ 17.0%. However, I have Preece projected at nearly double Jones’ usage.

If we look at practice times, Jones posted the 24th-best, five-lap average out of 31 cars, but he did so in the slower group. Remember from above that Preece was in the faster group, and these two have practice times much closer than it appears, with Preece obtaining only a small edge, just like we see in the projections.

So while I love Preece’s high floor in cash games, make sure to pivot off of him a bit in your tournament portfolio, and allocate some of that to Jones, who has a very strong Pocono track history.