DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Las Vegas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the South Point 400

The NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 kicks off today at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

A classic 1.5-mile track, Las Vegas will compare to other 1.5-mile tracks, with the most emphasis on Kansas Speedway as it’s closest comparable track.

Drivers also got a 20-minute practice session in, which notably took place under a partial solar eclipse, making track temperatures cooler than they normally would be. That, in part, led to tire issues for Hendrick Motorsports drivers Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. Fortunately for Larson, he was able to save his car before hitting the wall.

Elliott was not so lucky, and he will start the race from the rear of the field.

Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Here are my NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

 

Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks

Kyle Larson ($11,000): Aside from the tire issue, Larson was the fastest over 10 consecutive laps in practice and is the favorite to win the race.

Larson dominated the two most recent races at 1.5-mile tracks at Kansas, where he led the most laps, and Texas, where he had the fastest car before a late-race incident.

Expect more of the same today, with Larson dominating in the laps led and fastest laps department.

Larson is projected for 70.5 laps led and 24.5 fastest laps on PrizePicks, with the latter being just two more than William Byron. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.

Chase Elliott ($9200): Thanks to the tire issue, Elliott starts 35th out of the 36 cars, meaning the only place to go is forward.

With all of that place-differential potential and a fast car in practice prior to the incident, Elliott is a shoe-in for cash games.

Daniel Suarez ($7300): Similarly for Suarez, he was unable to turn a qualifying lap and will start shotgun on the field.

Earlier in the year Suarez was quite fast at this track type, placing inside the top 12 in my FLAGS metric, but more recently has drifted closer to mid-pack on speed at these tracks.

However, even mid-pack is plenty good enough to get in the optimal lineup at his price point thanks to the place-differential potential that comes with the 36th-place starting spot.

Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Tyler Reddick ($10,300): After the Hendrick duo of Larson and William Byron, Reddick was the class of the remaining field in practice.

He posted the fourth-best, five-lap average and the third-best, 10-lap average, overtaking Chris Buescher in the process, whose Ford showed a higher degree of tire wear than Reddick’s Toyota.

Reddick won at Kansas earlier in the playoffs, which of course is Las Vegas’ most similar track. He should be stellar again today.

Ross Chastain ($8300): The Watermelon Man has been mostly quiet throughout the NASCAR playoffs, but Las Vegas is a great opportunity to turn things around.

Earlier this year, Chastain had the fastest car Las Vegas by FLAGS, and he looks to have a quick car once again. He set the fastest single-lap time in practice, and he also set the fastest five-lap average.

All the focus on the HMS cars of Larson and Byron, plus the Toyota cars, should help keep Chastain’s usage in check.

I like going overweight on him. There’s so much upside at this price point.

Austin Cindric ($6000): It’s tough to recommend Cindric given the struggles he’s had in his sophomore campaign, but we’re getting him at rock-bottom price and perception.

Cindric’s teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, were the class of the Ford in practice aside from possibly playoff contender Chris Buescher.

That gives Cindric some upside knowing his camp has speed. At worst, he was in the same range as fellow Fords Michael McDowell, Aric Almirola, and Ryan Preece in practice, all of whom are priced in the $6k range as well.

Cindric finished sixth at Las Vegas earlier this year, his only top-10 finish outside of road courses and superspeedways. A repeat of that is certainly within the range of outcomes. At sub-10 percent projected usage, Cindric has unique GPP-winning capabilities.

However, be prepared for plenty of downside as well if he continues to struggle. So while I like getting leverage on the field with him up to around 20%, don’t go too crazy.