DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Nashville: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Cracker Barrel 400

Sunday night’s race at Nashville Superspeedway marks the fourth-straight intermediate track race for the NASCAR Cup Series.

In the prior three, my practice FLAGS metric has been a strong predictor of race speed, so there’s no reason to deviate from it too much this time as well.

In addition, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Cracker Barrel 600 at Nashville Speedway.

Coca-Cola DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Tyler Reddick ($9800): Reddick ranked No. 1 in practice FLAGS and starts on the second row, so at $9800 he comes in as the best value among the top four drivers in FLAGS.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700): Hamlin was the 1B to Reddick’s 1A in practice and has been the most dominant car on concrete tracks in the Next Gen era. The major major caveat here is that Hamlin is on baby watch, as his fiancée is due to give birth today, so Hamlin could have to leave prior to the race starting or even during the race.

If the coast is clear, Hamlin is a great core play, but given the uncertainty, keep checking the news. Ryan Truex would be his substitute and is listed on DraftKings. Truex, however, would be mostly unplayable, having to drop to the rear of the field at the start of the race despite his official starting spot being Hamlin’s second-place qualifying position, meaning he’s unlikely to dominate and would have to drive through the whole field to win.

Daniel Suarez ($6900): Suarez starts 32nd, which wasn’t a great qualifying effort, but he had much more speed in practice, so I remain hopeful that he can produce something here. Suarez ranked 18th in FLAGS, and in the most recent difficult-to-pass intermediate race at Texas, Suarez finished 10th, which should be around his ceiling.

But starting so far back raises his median and floor too thanks to the place-differential potential, where he’s almost surely moving forward unless he gets in a crash or has a parts failure.

Coca-Cola DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

The Big Five: In addition to Reddick and Hamlin above, I recommend exposures to William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe at or near their expected optimal percentages.

These five drivers were the top five in practice FLAGS and all start in the top five as well. I would have dropped off Briscoe and made this a big four given he was a tier down in practice speed from the other four, but since he won the pole he’ll have the dominant track position to start, where he can rack up laps led and fastest laps, and he will have the preferred pit stall as well.

You’ll need to mix and match these five drivers, since we’re likely to have 2-3 dominators in a 300-lap race.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200): Blaney starts 15th thanks to a poor qualifying draw, and his practice times are a bit uncertain when compared to the other top dogs, as he went out in the first practice group that had worse track conditions than the second group where all the top dogs practiced.

But if my FLAGS group adjustment isn’t enough, it’s possible Blaney could be among the best cars, since he was the clearly dominant car in his practice group.

There’s certainly a chance he wins and dominates the middle or latter portions of the race, and he would need to be in a healthy chunk of your DFS lineups in case that happens.

Bubba Wallace ($7000): Wallace starts 12th, and like Blaney he was in the first practice group, so his times could be a bit misleading when comparing to the second practice group.

Again, if that’s the case, Bubba could be faster than his practice lap averages show. I have Wallace 10th in group-adjusted FLAGS, but if the adjustment is too small, he could be even better.

My model has him a shade under 20% to be in the optimal lineup, but his ownership projection is in the low teens.

Punts: Seeing as we have a bunch of strong options at the high-dollar range, punts are in play this week for sure.

John Hunter Nemechek is the best punt play, according to my model. The Legacy Motor Club driver starts 36th, raising his floor massively, but he also has some interesting upside, having pulled off top-10 finishes at Texas and Kansas.

Todd Gilliland is next, and should draw lower ownership than JHN given he starts a spot ahead, practiced a spot worse in FLAGS, and is $200 more expensive, so he could be the “punt pivot.”

And not by model, but by practice FLAGS, Riley Herbst would be the punt option starting 37th. The 23XI Racing rookie actually ranked two spots ahead of Nemechek in practice FLAGS, starts one spot farther back, giving him more place-differential potential, and is $400 cheaper.