DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Michigan: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

For a fifth straight points-paying race, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to an intermediate track, this time at the two-mile oval of Michigan.

Practice data was incredibly significant at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte, and those are probably the three best comparable tracks to Michigan, so you know I’ll be relying heavily on my practice FLAGS data.

In addition, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Brad Keselowski ($7500): Rolling off from the 27th spot is the co-owner of RFK Racing, Brad Keselowski.

Kez showed top-five, group-adjusted speed in practice based off my adjusted FLAGS data, and he has had two top-five finishes at Michigan the last two years.

Add in teammate Chris Buescher’s win and sixth-place finish here over the last two races, and RFK racing is a perfect 100% at top-six finishes at this track in four starts over the last two races.

BK is looking to add on to that tally with a healthy dose of place-differential potential starting from that far back.

Christopher Bell ($10,200): Bell also starts toward the back, one row ahead of Keselowski in 25th.

Bell was arguably the best car in practice; although my FLAGS data has him third, it’s fractions off the driver in the top spot.

Bell has always had speed here, but he has had a lot of bad luck. That makes him a great tournament play too, and he’s the driver with the single-highest Perfect% in my model this week.

Tyler Reddick ($9800): Just ahead of Bell in practice FLAGS is defending race winner Tyler Reddick. Reddick not only won, but he had the second-most fastest laps and the highest driver rating in last year’s race.

Reddick’s lap times in practice were incredibly consistent, with his worst lap once he got up to speed a 37.23 compared to a best of 36.96. That lap was his 15th speed lap on tires and made him one of just two drivers to go sub-37 on the 15th lap or later.

FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Tournament Picks

Chris Buescher ($7800): The other driver to crack sub-37 after 15 laps is Buescher, who also topped my practice FLAGS metric.

Buescher won here in 2023 and charged to a sixth-place finish last year, so we know this is a fantastic track for him.

Buescher also tweeted that he really liked his car, and there’s little reason to doubt him. By starting sixth, he should be in the mix for dominator points and maybe even a race win.

Bubba Wallace/Austin Cindric/Ty Gibbs ($7700/$7200/$6900): This trio of drivers in the upper $6k to mid-$7k range ranked fourth (Gibbs), sixth (Wallace), and seventh (Cindric) in practice FLAGS.

Each of the three drivers also starts between eighth and 11th, meaning they aren’t quite up front to feel comfortable enough about their chances to be in the optimal lineup, but based off their speed at least one of them seems probable to end up optimal.

Gibbs probably has the best car of the trio, but he also has had the most miserable year of the three as well. Wallace was incredibly fast here last year prior to contact with Kyle Larson, and Cindric starts the farthest back of the three, giving him the most place-differential potential.

You can mix and match the three, as well as play multiple of them in a lineup, although we’d be hard pressed to see all three end up optimal. Still, it’s possible.

Ryan Preece ($7000): The third RFK Racing car should have a solid showing, but he was only midpack in FLAGS and starts 23rd, making him a bit uncomfortable for a core play.

That said, he actually ends up in my model’s optimal projected lineup based off the ceiling projection, so he should definitely be in consideration for your tournament lineups.

Punts: My two favorite punts are Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6000) and John Hunter Nemechek ($5800). Stenhouse could almost be considered a core play, but I don’t necessarily think we need to drop down that low in salary this week with so much mid-range value, so I’m putting him as a tournament option instead.

Stenhouse rolls off 30th, giving him a ton of place-differential potential, and somehow he ended up as my top Chevy driver in group-adjusted FLAGS. That’s pretty good!

Nemechek is pure tournament play, but he has some big upside if he can match his practice FLAGS ranking of 12th in the group-adjusted category. Even without group adjustment, he’s 16th, which would move him forward at a cheap price tag.