Kansas Speedway is the site of the 13th race of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. The AdventHealth 400 (3:00 p.m. ET, FS1) marks the start of three straight races (including the All-Star Race) at 1.5-mile ovals.
Kansas is very similar to Las Vegas, which the series raced at earlier this year, so we can definitely lean on data from the Pennzoil 400 when analyzing today’s race.
There were plenty of issues in practice which should make for another high variance race. The first practice group totaled four cautions, while the second group accounted for two more. Among those involved in major incidents in practice were Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Chris Buescher.
Each of those three drivers ended up missing qualifying thanks to their wrecks and will start from the rear of the field. That makes all three cash game locks, and chalky tournament plays as well. So in my analysis, I’ll refrain from picking these obvious plays.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
Let’s jump into today’s NASCAR DFS picks for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas.
AdventHealth 400 DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
I’d normally refrain from recommending an upper-middle-tier driver starting on the pole as a cash game play, but Christopher Bell ($8400) was so fast in practice and qualifying that I think you have to take what should be a chunk of guaranteed points.
Bell led every single metric in practice, and whipped the field in qualifying, by running over 0.1 seconds faster than anyone else. He should be good for a nice chunk of laps led and fastest laps, at a comfortable price tag.
AdventHealth 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Tyler Reddick ($8900): Reddick was impressive in practice, placing third in five-lap average. He backed that up with a strong qualifying effort. However, because Bell and Larson also qualified up front, I don’t expect Reddick’s usage to be through the roof. However, his upside is definitely there. Reddick dominated the race at Auto Club Speedway prior to a tire failure, and Kansas, with a medium amount of tire falloff and variable banking where you can ride the wall, suits his well.
Ross Chastain ($9700): As we’ve become accustomed to all year with Chastain, he doesn’t turn many laps in practice. In only 13 circuits, he wasn’t able to string together five consecutive laps. If that scares people away, so be it. Chastain had the best average running position and second-best average green flag speed at Las Vegas. Look for another solid run to the front from the Watermelon Man.
AdventHelath 400 DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week
The Toyotas and Chevys have been the class of the field so far this weekend, and the one Toyota that is going to go overlooked is Bubba Wallace. However, Wallace was right in a group with Hamlin and Truex in overall lap speed, and only a smidge off drivers like Alex Bowman and Martin Truex, Jr. in single-lap speed.
Wallace had a decent, but not amazing car at Las Vegas. He was 18th in average green flag speed but ended up with a worse finish thanks to some bad luck.
If Lady Luck shines on him, he certainly is capable of pulling off a top-10 finish, especially with the potential chaos we could see in today’s race.
I actually disagree with my model, and expect Bubba to be in under 15% of lineups, yet my model give him just over a 15% chance of being in the optimal lineup. I don’t mind leveraging him up to 20% if you are multi-entering.