Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for today’s slate, featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers.
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-144) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Raise your hand if you thought the Brewers would be just 0.5 games behind the Dodgers in the standings on July 19th. If you raised your hand, you’re either a liar or one of the sharpest people ever. The Brewers managed to take Game 1 of this series on Friday, and they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball since the middle of May. They’ve won 36 of their past 51 games, including eight straight. They’ll have their de facto ace in Freddy Peralta on the mound on Saturday, so they’re in a solid spot to keep the momentum rolling.
That said, the Dodgers are clearly still the better team. They’ve had to overcome a host of pitcher injuries for the second consecutive year, but there’s no denying their talent level on paper. Their offense has been as good as advertised, averaging the second-most runs per game and ranking fourth in wRC+ vs. right-handers. As their pitching staff gets healthier – or reinforcements arrive at the trade deadline – they’re poised for another deep postseason run.
The Dodgers will have Emmet Sheehan on the bump on Saturday, and he’s already given the team a huge boost since returning from injury. He’s made just two starts and three appearances, but he boasts a 2.03 ERA and a 2.54 xERA. He’s allowed exactly one run in all three outings, and with the Dodgers’ offense supporting him, that’s good enough to win a lot of games.
On the other side, Peralta doesn’t look quite as impressive as his traditional numbers suggest. His xERA is roughly a full run higher than his actual mark, while his strikeout rate is the lowest of his entire career. If not for elite marks in BABIP (.245) and strand rate (84.1%), Peralta could be having a much different year.
Ultimately, this feels like an excellent opportunity to sell high on Milwaukee and buy low on the Dodgers.
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Shohei Ohtani 2+ Total Bases
Ohtani’s numbers are slightly down from his historic 2024 campaign, where he became the first player in MLB history with 50+ homers and 50+ steals in the same season. That said, he’s still one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. He’s already slugged 32 homers, while his batted-ball data is among the best in the league. He ranks in the 99th percentile for barrel rate, average exit velocity, and xSLG, and he’s in the 100th percentile for hard-hit rate.
Ohtani is at his most dangerous against right-handed pitchers. He owns a 174 wRC+ and an OPS over 1.000 in that split, and he has a career 1.389 OPS in six at-bats vs. Peralta. That’s a small sample size, but it’s not surprising that Ohtani has found success against him.
Ohtani to go yard is tempting at +190, but 2+ total bases is the safer option. It gives us multiple paths to return value, and the price tag isn’t significantly worse at -110.
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Emmet Sheehan Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Sheehan stands out as an undervalued pitcher from a betting standpoint, but he probably won’t stick around long enough to pile up the strikeouts. He’s yet to throw more than 80 pitches in an outing, and he’s had 65 or fewer in two of them. Unsurprisingly, he’s managed four strikeouts or fewer in two of those contests, with a matchup vs. the Padres standing out as the lone exception.
Sheehan is going to have to be extremely efficient with his punchouts, barring a large increase in workload. That feels unlikely vs. the Brewers. They’ve been one of the tougher teams to strike out this season, ranking 20th in strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers. Tyler Glasnow managed just six punchouts in six innings on Friday, and he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. If Shaheen only goes five innings on Saturday – which is a reasonable expectation – I like the prospects of less than 4.5 punchouts.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo credit: Imagn
