Every year, Week 15 is an inflection point in the college football season. It’s a celebration of all the accomplishments as teams gear up for Championship Weekend, but also a sad reminder that bowl season and the College Football Playoffs are the only things sitting between us and another unwelcome offseason. We’re carrying our late-season momentum into the final main slate of the campaign, looking to end the year on a high note.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Gunner Stockton (Georgia Bulldogs): $8,300 DraftKings
The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs were humbled at home in Week 5 versus this same Bama squad, but we expect they will have plenty of bite in this winner-take-all showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Gunner Stockton hasn’t been at his best in recent weeks, but we’re anticipating a bounce-back effort in Week 15.
Arguably, Stockton is coming off his worst performance as a college football starter. The Bulldogs’ quarterback completed just 11-of-21 passes for a laughable 70 yards last time out. That extends his recent downturn, as he’s thrown for just 266 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions over his previous two contests. In doing so, Stockton has completed 66.7% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt over that modest stretch.
DFS players are right to have concerns, but this positions Stockton as an ideal progression candidate ahead of Week 15. His completion percentage and yards per pass attempt have fallen by 3.5% and 1.5 yards, respectively. Stockton’s presumptive ascent is validated by his in-conference track record. Over his last four SEC tilts, he’s thrown for 13 touchdowns and 1,005 passing yards, completing 70.4% of his passes.
A more efficient throwing performance will go a long way to improving Stockton’s fantasy profile, but he will also make an impact with his legs. Altogether, he’s poised to put together a vastly improved performance in the most meaningful game to date. If our analysis hasn’t convinced you, delve into our weekly projections, where you’ll find Gunner Stockton positioned near the top of our median and ceiling projections.
Broc Lowry (Western Michigan Broncos): $6,500 DraftKings
The lone Group of 5 contest on the main slate pits the Western Michigan Broncos versus the Miami (OH) RedHawks in the MAC Championship Game. This may be a throw-away game for some of the more casual college football observers, but sharp DFS punters will sink their claws into Broc Lowry as a value quarterback.
The Broncos are riding a ton of momentum into the conference championship. Winners of four in a row, Western Michigan has turned to its ground game to grind away its opponents and control the clock and tempo. In that regard, Lowry continues to shine as the premier runner and offensive catalyst in Kalamazoo.
Lowry leads the team in carries and rushing yards, averaging 74.5 yards per game on 14.5 rushing attempts per game. Still, that production has spiked in the latter stages of the campaign. The sophomore has eclipsed 18 carries in four of his previous five, rushing for no fewer than 82 yards in any of those contests. Moreover, he’s found the end zone in four straight, including an astonishing five touchdowns over his last two.
The Broncos have masterfully executed their game plan en route to the MAC Championship Game. That necessitates heavy involvement from Lowry in the ground game, who has almost single-handedly carried Western Michigan into the grand finale. He won’t let his team down when they need him most, and he’s primed to end the day as the top-performing fantasy quarterback.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
J’Mari Taylor (Virginia Cavaliers) $8,700 DraftKings
The Virginia Cavaliers are within striking distance of their first playoff berth in school history. Their defense has gotten a lot of credit along the way, but the ACC Championship Game will be J’Mari Taylor’s chance to steal the spotlight and get the credit he deserves for leading the Cavs on offense.
Taylor has been a workhorse all season long, but he’s saved the best for last. Over the last five, the Cavaliers’ running back has averaged 97.0 rushing yards per game on 19.8 rushing attempts. However, his most prominent fantasy contributions have come thanks to his scoring prowess. Taylor has found paydirt in all but one of those five contests, recording multiple scores in two of his last four.
As effective as he is on the ground, Taylor also serves as an elite pass-catching back. Across the same five-game sample, the North Carolina native has pulled in 20 of his 26 targets for 117 yards. While he has yet to record a receiving touchdown this season, his volume and every-down ability make him one of the top running backs on the main slate.
Duke has abandoned its defensive responsibility this season, playing into Taylor’s assumed supremacy on Saturday’s main slate. We’re backing him as the premier running back in Week 15, making him a must-roster player in any tournament or format.
J’Koby Williams (Texas Tech Red Raiders) $5,900 DraftKings
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been one of the most pleasant surprises this season. A National Championship long shot at the outset of the campaign, the Red Raiders have risen to the front of the pack on the futures board. Their Big 12-best offense has been a driving factor in their success, and we don’t expect them to take their foot off the pedal in Saturday’s clash versus the BYU Cougars.
Texas Tech’s passing attack has enjoyed a new level of success, thanks in part to its renewed commitment to the ground game. The Red Raiders feature two game-changing backs, Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams, but we’re deferring to the latter in the Big 12 Championship.
Granted, Dickey has been more productive on the ground, surpassing Williams’ rushing totals by a sizeable margin. However, Williams’ usage in the aerial assault elevates his fantasy profile versus the Cougars. BYU stacks up exceptionally well versus the rushing attack, holding opponents to 119.0 rushing yards per game. Conversely, they’ve been bothered by pass-catching backs in the past, giving up 138 receiving yards to running backs over their last three.
When these teams met in Week 11, Williams went off for 77 rushing yards on 13 carries, adding 32 yards on two receptions. That represents the starting point for Week 15’s action, as Williams takes a front seat in game-planning at this neutral-site showdown.
At a relatively discounted rate, we predict that Williams will be featured more prominently on offense. That combination makes him one of the standout values on the main slate.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State Buckeyes) $8,400
Jeremiah Smith may have fallen short of preseason expectations as a Heisman frontrunner; nevertheless, the Ohio State Buckeyes receiver remains one of the top wideouts in college football. After a quiet couple of weeks, we expect Smith to triumph in Saturday’s Big Ten Championship battle versus the Indiana Hoosiers.
Smith has alternated between above- and below-average performances throughout the season. While his production has ebbed and flowed, he’s been a reliable pass-catcher for Julian Sayin. So far this season, the sophomore has hauled in 72 of his 91 targets, for a tidy 79.1% catch rate. Still, he’s been even better in recent weeks. In his five games since Week 8, Smith has grabbed 32 of 39 targets for an improved 82.1% catch rate. Further, he’s surpassed 97 receiving yards in three of five while finding paydirt in all but two of those outings.
Coming off back-to-back 40-yard games, Smith is primed to see a sharp increase in his output. He is the first look in Sayin’s progressions, and he has a football magnet in his gloves. Indiana’s pass defense might be able to limit Ohio State’s offense, but it won’t be able to contain the Buckeyes altogether. The defending champs need Smith to step up, and we predict he’ll respond with a game-changing effort.
Cooper Barkate (Duke Blue Devils) $6,100
Duke will have to unleash its offense if it hopes to keep pace with the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday. Cooper Barkate has been the go-to option in the Blue Devils’ passing attack, and he’ll be called upon frequently at Bank of America Stadium.
Barkate is far and away the Blue Devils’ top pass-catcher. His team-leading 100 targets account for a 23.3% target share and represent 25 more than the next closest receiver. Predictably, that correlates with elite production, as he’s recorded 300 more receiving yards than the next closest player and is tied for the team lead with six receiving touchdowns.
When these teams met a few weeks ago, the Blue Devils operated a pass-first offense. While it was partially out of necessity while playing from behind, 60.3% of Duke’s offensive snaps were passing plays. A similar outcome is expected in Saturday’s contest, as the second-place ACC squad could be playing from a deficit early.
The spread and anticipated game script imply that Duke will have to turn to its aerial assault in the ACC Championship Game. Thankfully, they can rely on Cooper Barkate as one of their most dangerous weapons. The Blue Devils’ wideout should easily surpass the implied value of his salary, making him a top value candidate on the main slate.
Noah Thomas (Georgia Bulldogs) $3,800
You’ll have to scroll past many of the top performers in our median and ceiling projections; however, in doing so, you’ll eventually come across the most under-the-radar fantasy option on Saturday’s main slate. Noah Thomas has quietly moved up the Bulldogs’ depth chart and is an unassuming x-factor in the SEC Championship Game.
Zachariah Branch is the de facto first receiving option for Gunner Stockton, but we’ve seen Thomas eat into that target share in recent weeks. Totaling just 11 targets through the first six games of the season, Thomas has 16 targets over his last four. More impressively, he’s pulled down 11 of those throws for 178 yards while crossing the plane three times in four contests.
Additionally, there is a progression component to his fantasy profile. Thomas was held touchless in last week’s win over Georgia Tech, with the Bulldogs taking to the ground more frequently. They won’t have that run-first luxury against Alabama, which will undoubtedly include more involvement from their depth options.
Assuredly, Zachariah Branch will be the focus for Bama’s safeties. That should leave Noah Thomas more room to operate, allowing the Bulldogs’ pass-catcher to continue his late-season surge. At $3,800, we’re betting he’s a major factor in Saturday’s decision. Pairing him with Stockton could be the key to unlocking fantasy glory.
Pictured: J’Mari Taylor
Photo Credit: Imagn
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