And just like that, we’re already in the double-digits. Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off with another overseas contest, this time between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. Still, the best the schedule has to offer comes later, as several matchups with playoff implications are sprinkled throughout the day. There aren’t many steep favorites on the docket, with only one team being favored by more than a touchdown. Get ready for what should be a monumental day of football action.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.
Week 10 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Dak Prescott Higher 11.5 Rushing Yards
The above-mentioned rule doesn’t apply to the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is the only team favored by more than a touchdown, heading into Sunday’s NFC East battle against the New York Giants as substantive 17.5-point favorites. As the line implies, the Cowboys should run away with this one, and Dak Prescott will surely get involved in the action.
Consistency held Prescott back early in the year, but the Cowboys’ pivot has looked like his Pro Bowl self over the past few outings. The reigning Walter Payton Man of the Year gets a lot of credit for his passing accomplishments, but we’ve been more impressed with his running game of late.
After rushing the ball 12 times through his first five games of the year, Prescott has responded with 17 carries over his last three. Across that modest sample, Prescott has totaled 73 rushing yards while going for no fewer than 14 in any of those contests. Further, he gets to trot against an ineffective Giants defense that ranks eighth-to-last in rushing defense.
Last week, two different players broke off rushing plays for at least 15 yards. The week before, Zach Wilson led the New York Jets in rushing yards against the Giants. Whatever benchmark you are looking for, the Giants have failed it. Prescott should be the latest player to excel, following a long string of predecessors before him. We’re betting he goes above 11.5 rushing yards.
Jaylen Warren Higher 33.5 Rushing Yards
When the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Najee Harris in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, they thought they were getting their running back of the future. Fast forward three seasons, and the Steelers might have more controversy than reliability. Harris has failed to deliver primary running back metrics, leaving the door open for Jaylen Warren. Every time the Steelers give Warren the ball, he delivers, earning him a more prominent role on offense.
Warren is coming off his best game of the year. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy toted the ball 11 times for 88 yards against the Tennessee Titans, setting season-best marks in carries, rushing yards, and yards per carry. Additionally, that was the fourth time in six games that he had at least eight rushing attempts and the third time in four games that he ran for at least 32 yards.
Like the aforementioned Cowboys, the Steelers won’t face a ton of resistance from their opponents Sunday. The Green Bay Packers give up the 10th-most rushing yards per game, falling to the seventh-most as the visitors.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers offense gets credit for one thing, it’s incorporating Warren into their gameplanning more frequently. We’ve seen Warren shine over the past few weeks, and the Packers can do little to buck that trend. We’re feeling confident on taking the higher on most Warren projections, but especially the 33.5 rushing yards.
Justin Herbert Lower 24.5 Completions
It hasn’t been the start to the season the Los Angeles Chargers envisioned. L.A. just climbed back to .500, needing wins versus the lowly Chicago Bears and New York Jets to do so. The loss of Mike Williams has impacted their passing efficiency this year, and that’s unlikely to change against an upstart Detroit Lions squad
Of course, Justin Herbert isn’t absolved from the underwhelming passing attack. The former sixth-overall selection has alternated between above and below-average performances, with more lackluster efforts dominating his recent game scores. Herbert has completed more than 59.5% of his passes just once over his last five outings, scraping by with an uncharacteristic 59.6% completion percentage across that stretch.
Other than Week 8’s game against the Bears, Herbert hasn’t completed more than 22 passes since Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. Predictably, the rest of his passing metrics have suffered, with Herbert looking out of sorts without Williams in the lineup.
Don’t expect things to change against Detroit. The Lions have one of the most ferocious pass defenses in the league, limiting opponents to the eighth-worst completion percentage. We’re starting to get an idea of exactly what Williams meant to the Chargers’ aerial assault, and Herbert is worse because of it.
Trey Palmer Higher 19.5 Receiving Yards
A four-game losing streak may have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down, but they aren’t out yet. Baker Mayfield is finding new ways to keep the Bucs competitive and extract more value from their passing game. One thing they’ve had success with is incorporating rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer more into the offense. Palmer is coming off his best game as a pro, and he should have no problem replicating that success against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
Palmer put up an impressive 51 receiving yards last week versus the Houston Texans, hauling in three of his four passes. That was the fourth time over the previous seven contests that the Nebraska product surpassed 20 receiving yards in a game, illustrating his improving chemistry with Mayfield.
Catch rate has been a glaring concern for Palmer this season. The rookie has caught 15-of-28 targets for a dismal 53.6% catch rate. Still, the silver lining is that hasn’t prevented Mayfield from throwing Palmer’s way with 19 targets over his last four games. Only once over that stretch has Palmer fallen below four targets.
Although they’ve made improvements recently, the Titans passing defense isn’t the imposing force it once was. Tennessee allows the sixth-worst completion percentage in the NFL, giving away yards in the secondary. That plays into Palmer’s upside in Week 10, and we expect him to go higher than 19.5 receiving yards for the fourth time in five weeks.
James Conner Lower 17.5 Receiving Yards
For the first time this season, the Arizona Cardinals will have Kyler Murray back in the lineup. The truth most Cardinals fans don’t want to hear is that the prospect of having him back might be the glimmer of hope people were looking for, but it’s unlikely to have a profound impact on the on-field product. Arizona has struggled this year, and Murray might not be the magical cure-all everyone wants him to be.
James Conner deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Cardinals afloat. The two-time Pro Bowl running back is averaging the second-most rushing yards per game of his career, even though he continues to be slowed down by injuries.
The regime change may have played a factor in his improved rushing performances, but it’s also limited Conner’s involvement in the passing game. Through his first six games, the Cardinals running back has a miniscule 10 targets, totaling just 30 yards on eight catches.
Even with Murray back in the lineup, Conner’s production isn’t expected to improve substantially. It’s evident that Jonathan Gannon’s schemes don’t account for Conner in the passing game, and Murray is more prone to take off than check down. Conner’s receiving yards projection is higher than where he projects to be, making the lower a natural play.
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