4 NCAA Tournament Picks to Maximize Leverage in Bracket Pools

Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose data-driven tools have helped subscribers win over $10 million across all sports pools since 2017.

Most bracket advice focuses on making game-by-game predictions on what people think will happen.  

That’s fine, but if you want to win your pool (especially larger ones), you need to find teams the public is undervaluing.

If you’re making the same NCAA Tournament picks as everyone else, you’re not gaining ground. 

The real edge comes from leverage — finding where a team’s actual chances of advancing are higher than how often they’re being picked.

Finding the Best NCAA Tournament Picks for Your Specific Pool

All of the NCAA Tournament picks below are based on PoolGenius data, comparing public pick rates to each team’s actual odds of advancing.

These public pick rates were gathered earlier this week and will continue to shift as more brackets are filled out. Advancement odds can also change with injuries and late news.

But keep in mind that not every pick makes sense for every pool:

• In a small pool with standard scoring, you don’t need to get overly aggressive.
  
• In larger pools or those that reward upsets, these leverage picks become much more valuable.

Want to know if these picks make sense in your pool?

Enter your pool size and scoring rules into our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool and get custom bracket picks with the appropriate amount of risk/leverage for your specific pool. 

Get Your Optimized Bracket Picks >>

Discounts Courtesy of FantasyLabs >>

No. 11 VCU — To Win First Round

Odds to Happen: 43%
Public Pick Rate: 27%

VCU is one of the most under-picked teams in the first round.

The Rams enter the tournament having won 16 of their last 17 games, powered by a disruptive defensive style that forces turnovers and controls the paint.

They draw North Carolina, which is dealing with a major injury to star freshman Caleb Wilson. Without him, the Tar Heels have played worse down the stretch and are relying on a shorter rotation.

Despite a very real chance to win, VCU is being picked in barely over a quarter of brackets — making this an interesting leverage spot in the first round.

No. 6 Tennessee — To Make Sweet 16

Odds to Happen: 41%
Public Pick Rate: 28%

Tennessee has a favorable path to the Sweet 16, but isn’t being picked that way.

The Vols have dealt with injuries throughout the season, but their preferred lineup — which recently got healthier — has performed slightly better than their overall baseline when on the floor together.

As usual under Rick Barnes, Tennessee brings size, physical defense, and strong rebounding, which tends to translate well in tournament settings.

The concern is on offense, where shooting consistency and turnovers can create issues.

Still, with a path that likely runs through SMU/Miami (OH) and then Virginia, Tennessee’s chances to advance are meaningfully higher than the public is accounting for — making this a strong leverage play.

No. 7 UCLA — To Make Elite Eight

Odds to Happen: 16%
Public Pick Rate: 6%

This is admittedly a longer shot pick that probably doesn’t make sense in smaller pools with standard scoring. 

However, it’s worth noting for larger pools or those with seed-differential scoring and upset bonuses. 

Late in the year, the Bruins finally got their optimal lineup together, unlocking a more dynamic offense with multiple shooters around playmaker Donovan Dent.

With Skyy Clark back and a fully functional rotation, UCLA now has several players shooting over 40% from three, making them much more dangerous than their season-long numbers suggest.

There is some uncertainty about Tyler Bilodeau’s injury status, but he’s expected to return, and UCLA’s upside with this group is significantly higher than what the public is pricing in.

At just 6% pick rate, this is the type of deeper-run play that can create major separation in large pools.

No. 3 Illinois — To Make Final Four

Odds to Happen: 16%
Public Pick Rate: 9%

Illinois has been one of the more consistent teams in the country, with a high floor driven by elite offensive efficiency.

The Illini dominate the boards, limit turnovers, and score efficiently inside the arc — a combination that gives them a strong foundation in tournament play.

Their biggest weakness is their average perimeter shooting, which can lead to tighter games than expected.

That shows up in their results: Illinois has struggled in close games despite being dominant in most others.

Still, their overall profile and depth give them a legitimate path through a challenging region — and their Final Four odds are notably higher than their pick rate.

That gap makes Illinois a strong leverage play for larger bracket pools where you want to pivot away from the chalk Final Four picks, which are Florida and Houston in this region.  

Find Out If These NCAA Tournament Picks Make Sense For Your Pool

Not every upset or sleeper pick is right for every bracket.

The best strategy depends on your pool size, scoring system, and how your competition is likely to pick.

Want to know if these NCAA Tournament picks are actually +EV for your specific pool?

Enter your pool size and scoring rules into our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool and get a personalized answer.

Get Your Optimized Bracket Picks >>

Discounts Courtesy of FantasyLabs >>