The PGA Course Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Trends Tool and metrics to highlight stats for the upcoming tournament.
We’re just one week away before the playoffs start, but before that, the tour will head to Greensboro, North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club.
Let’s dive in.
As always, I back-tested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out those that have been the most valuable at Sedgefield Country Club. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 54.03 DraftKings points and a +7.33 Plus/Minus with a 50.6% Consistency Rating to the field.
Metrics that tested with at least a +2.00 Plus/Minus:
- Course Adjusted Round Score: +5.80
- Recent Eagles: +4.51
- Recent Scrambling: +4.33
- Long-Term Greens In Regulation: +3.90
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +3.75
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +2.78
- Recent Par-5 Scoring: +2.33
- Recent Missed Cuts: +2.30
- Odds Score: +2.09
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +2.03
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.00
Sedgefield Country Club checks in as a par-70, 7,127-yard course. It’s been one of the most fantasy-friendly courses on tour with golfers averaging a Plus/Minus over 7.00 on DraftKings, along with a Consistency Rating that’s slightly over 50%.
I’m not much of a course history person, but it’s noteworthy that Course Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) back-tested as the highest metric. There could be some merit in utilizing previous course success as a tiebreaker this week, but I never use it as my only reason for rostering someone.
With eagle scoring back-testing significantly high, that’ll be another key metric for me. There are only two par 5s on this course, but per Fantasy National, the No. 5 529-yard par 5 and No. 15 545-yard par 5 have generous eagle rates of 6.3% and 3.8%. Additionally, those par 5s have massive birdies rates of 56.1% and 49%, so being able to at least birdie those par 5s could be crucial in this tournament.
Overall, golfers should have rather short approach shots since eight of the par 4s are between 400-450 yards. Being able to take advantage of the par 5s and short par 4s will be the key to success this week. The two shortest par 4s (No. 8, 374 yards and No. 13, 405 yards) have the third and fourth-highest birdie rates (29% and 24.3%) behind the two par 5s.
Both recent and long-term greens in regulation (GIR) back-tested highly here. That said, an abundance of golfers are hitting GIR here at an average rate of 71.4%, which is around 6% higher than your average tour event, per Fantasy National.
Even though Strokes Gained: Approach has been less important here than an average event, per Data Golf, it’s still a metric that shouldn’t be discounted entirely as the winner will still need to gain strokes on the field to earn a victory: Five of the last six winners have all finished inside the top six in Strokes Gained: Approach in those tournaments.
This week we can probably get away with targeting golfers who don’t have elite approach games since golfers are hitting greens at an above-average clip. For example, Peter Malnati is historically an excellent putter. His 27.9 Putts Per Round (PPR) leads the field over the past 75 weeks, but his LT GIR is 63.3%, which isn’t great.
However, he’s made all four cuts at this event while hitting between 72-75% of GIR in his last three years here, which is well above his long-term average. Malnati is also in great recent form, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds.
Key metrics: Birdie or better scoring, Par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Pictured above: Peter Malnati
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports