The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
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Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. New York Jets – $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
With the Bills back on the main slate, Josh Allen returns to the top ceiling spot in our models at QB. The dual-threat QB has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections among the 20 QBs projected to start on the main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections.
The Bills have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, as they visit the Jets in New York in a divisional matchup in the early window. The matchup should be much more favorable for Allen, who had a tough contest last week against the excellent Vikings defense but still led his team to the win.
Allen only had 13.9 DraftKings points in Monday’s win over the Vikings, finishing with 234 passing yards and a touchdown. He had a much bigger game the previous week against the Ravens, with 27.6 DraftKings points and his ninth rushing score of the season. Allen has averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game and produced over 18 DraftKings points in every game this season except last week’s against the Vikings.
He should be in a bounce-back spot against the Jets, who have allowed 16 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in nine games this season. Opposing QBs have thrown just one interception against New York while averaging 212.1 passing yards per game.
If you have the salary to spend up on a QB, Allen brings the highest ceiling on the board in his favorable matchup with the potential to pile up fantasy points.
Top Value: Tyler Shough vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel, Tyler Shough has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback. He’s especially affordable on DraftKings, where he is barely in the top 10 in salary among starting QBs this week.
With plenty of turnover at the position in the last few weeks, other cheap options are expected to start this week, including Carson Beck, Kyle McCord, and even Fernando Mendoza, who are each making their first NFL start.
In his eight games this season, Shough has averaged 19.7 DraftKings points per game and finished right at his average with 19.7 DraftKings points last week while leading his team to an overtime win over the Browns. He threw for 265 yards and a touchdown in that game, and he has over 250 passing yards in six of his eight games this season.
The Saints welcomed rookie Jordyn Tyson to the offense last week and could get running back Travis Etienne Jr. back from IR (although his status for Week 10 is uncertain), giving Shough even more options to work with against the Panthers in this home divisional matchup.
The Panthers’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in most QB fantasy numbers. However, they have allowed 200+ yards passing in four of their last five games. At home in the Superdome, Shough and coach Kellen Moore have a good chance of getting the Saints’ offense rolling in this matchup.
Shough could end up a great value to build around at the position if you opt to lean on pay-up stars in other spots. Chris Olave and Tyson are both solid QB-WR stack options to consider, and Etienne is also interesting if he returns, since he has proven he can thrive as a receiver as well.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
With Jahmyr Gibbs in the early game on Sunday morning, Robinson takes over the top ceiling spot at running back. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Robinson and the Falcons are at home against the Chiefs in a tough matchup, but Bijan has proven he can still put up good fantasy numbers even when his team is struggling. The Falcons have lost four of their last five games, but Robinson racked up 29.7 DraftKings points last week against the Bengals. He finished the game with exactly 100 rushing yards on 19 carries and added six catches for 47 yards. He scored his fifth rushing touchdown of the season and also has a receiving score.
Robinson should continue to get almost all the work in Atlanta’s backfield since Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) was placed on IR last Saturday. Without Brian Robinson, Khalil Herbert is his new backup, but Herbert has had a much smaller role, leaving Bijan Robinson to handle almost all the work.
The Falcons will likely lean heavily on Robinson on Sunday to try to keep the Chiefs’ offense on the sidelines. Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent at QB, which has led to uneven offensive production, but if the team leans more heavily on Robinson this week, he has the clear potential to be the top ceiling play and one of the best value options at running back as well, according to the Consensus Projections.
Top Value: Ollie Gordon II at Indianapolis Colts – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
Ollie Gordon II has a great matchup against the Colts and will likely be one of the focal points of the offense for the Dolphins. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings and the fourth-highest of the options on FanDuel. On both sites, the options above him are all over $7,000, making him stand out for his affordable salary.
Gordon has been solid since taking over for De’Von Achane (knee), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3. The second-year running back from Oklahoma State has carried a large workload, averaging 17.3 carries per game since the game Achane left early. He has four rushing touchdowns during that span, and he reached over 20 DraftKings points twice with over 100 rushing yards in games against the Jets and Vikings.
With McCord making his first NFL start this week, the offense could rely more heavily on Gordon, who should find running room against the Colts after being held to 55 rushing yards on 16 carries last week against the Lions.
Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Opposing RBs have scored 10 touchdowns in nine games against the Colts, averaging 111.7 rushing yards and 40.7 receiving yards per game.
Jaylen Wright (quadriceps) was inactive last week but has been practicing in full this week, which could give Gordon some competition in the backfield for carries, but it could also help keep him fresh with so much potential work needed on the ground.
Gordon has a high ceiling against the Colts if McCord can help the offense run more smoothly than it did under Malik Willis. Since McCord isn’t as much of a rushing threat, Gordon should have a large workload in this favorable matchup in Week 10.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb vs. San Francisco 49ers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at wide receiver on FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections. He also has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, even though Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian Watson, and Chris Olave are all on the slate as well.
Lamb and the Cowboys host the 49ers in the only 4:25 p.m. ET start of the day in a classic NFC showdown. This will be his sixth career matchup against San Francisco, and he has averaged 6.6 catches for 83.6 yards in his previous five games against them. In his last meeting, he had 13 catches for 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns in October of 2024.
Lamb is coming off a big game against the Colts, hauling in 10-of-16 targets for 195 yards and a touchdown. It was his seventh score of the season, and he has at least 11 targets in four straight games. He’s averaging 12 targets per game for the season, and he should be very busy again in this matchup with the Niners.
Last week, the Cowboys didn’t have George Pickens (hamstring), and he has been limited again in practice for Week 10. If Pickens is out, Lamb is an even better play since he’ll likely be busier, but his target share and volume have been high enough to make him a top elite option either way.
The 49ers-Cowboys game has the highest point total on the board this week, which should put Lamb in a good spot for another big game.
Top Value: Jordyn Tyson vs. Carolina Panthers – $5,000 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Saints rookie WR Jordyn Tyson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at wide receiver on FanDuel. He also has the sixth-highest Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings among the options at $5,000 or lower. He brings a very high ceiling on both sites, even though he’s a little more expensive (relatively) on DraftKings.
Tyson had a disastrous fumble on the first catch of his NFL career, but he bounced back and finished with a solid game overall. He only ran 16 routes but caught four of five targets for 30 yards. He should be in line for a more “regular” workload in Week 10, according to Coach Kellen Moore, who said, “We’ll certainly add a healthy dose more, and it’ll start feeling more like a normal volume, I think, moving forward.”
Tyson brings plenty of big-play potential and runs great routes, although he’s still working his way into a more substantial role. When he’s healthy, he brings a very high ceiling, and he’ll have a favorable matchup as the Saints host the Panthers. Stacking him and Shough is a strong option that could pay off if the rookie has a breakout game as his workload ramps up.
On DraftKings, Tank Dell and Jakobi Meyers stand out as even more affordable options if you want a little less risk but still solid upside. On FanDuel, Jalen Coker, Denzel Boston, and Caleb Douglas stand out as strong options as well at their salaries in the $5,000s.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: George Kittle at Dallas Cowboys – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
With both Brock Bowers and Trey McBride working with new starting QBs in tough matchups, Kittle is able to slide in and grab the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he has the second-highest projections, behind only McBride.
Kittle had four catches for 58 yards on a team-high seven targets last week after a Week 8 bye, and he has at least six targets in six straight games. He hasn’t reached 100 yards in any game but continues to be a very reliable go-to option for Brock Purdy.
At wide receiver, Mike Evans (Achilles) isn’t expected to return yet, while Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) has been limited in practice as well. Kittle has been getting more volume while those two veteran target magnets have been out, and he will get more work again this week if both are at less than 100%.
The Cowboys have allowed four TE touchdowns this season, including one to McBride in Week 8. Opposing tight ends have four touchdowns in nine games against the Cowboys, averaging 50.2 yards per contest.
Top Value: Colby Parkinson at Arizona Cardinals – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
The Rams are very short-handed at wide receiver and will be desperately looking for playmakers this week as they visit the Cardinals. Both Davante Adams (hamstring) and Puka Nacua (knee) are on IR, while tight end Terrance Ferguson (hamstring/ankle) has suffered a setback in his return and could need more time. Nacua had 10+ targets in each of his last three games, including a massive 19 targets last week against Washington, so plenty of work will be available.
Without his top wide receivers, Matthew Stafford has been regularly turning to his tight ends. Colby Parkinson has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all tight ends on DraftKings this week as a result, and he’s a very solid play at only $3,000 on that site.
Parkinson has caught at least four passes in each of his last three games, even though he only managed 13 yards on his four receptions last week. He found the end zone in Week 6 in his best performance of the season, which came against the Cardinals, who he’ll face again this week.
Arizona has allowed seven TE touchdowns in its last seven games, so Parkinson is in a good spot to return value at only $3,000, especially with a strong projected volume. He did miss a game and some practice time with a rib issue, so confirm his status before using him this week. If he’s available, though, he has nice upside at this salary.
Pictured: CeeDee Lamb
Photo Credit: Imagn
