UFC Edmonton DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Buckley vs. Malott, More Saturday Fights

The UFC makes one of their semi-annual trips to Canada this weekend, with their usual offering of Canadian fighters in every bout. The headliner is rising Canadian fighter Mike Malott taking on veteran Joaquin Buckley in welterweight action.

The 13-card slate locks at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the DFS angles.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Mike Malott ($8,400) vs. Joaquin Buckley ($7,800)

With Joaquin Buckley having more than twice the number of UFC fights as “Proper” Mike Malott, this almost feels like a “prospect vs. gatekeeper” matchup. The tricky thing about Malott’s prospect status is that he’s old: he didn’t debut in the UFC until age 31 and turns 35 next month. If he wants to make a run at being the UFC’s first Canadian champion since GSP, he can’t afford to lose any more fights in the crowded welterweight division.

Buckley started his welterweight run at 6-0 after dropping down from middleweight but has since lost a pair of matches to top contenders Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady. Buckley is still just 32, but the door might be closing on his own title aspirations if he can’t get through Malott. He has slightly more time to work with than the Canadian favorite, though.

This is the first five-round fight for Malott, whose lone UFC loss came in a fight he was dominating against Neil Magny before completely collapsing in the final round. While Malott will certainly have worked on improving his gas tank since then, the bigger, stronger Buckley won’t make it easy. “New Mansa” has the athletic tools to push a pace and had his best rounds late against Usman in a previous five-round fight.

Plus, Buckley’s only losses at welterweight have come against fighters who outgrappled him, and I’m not sure Malott has the tools to do so. He’s landed just one takedown in his last four fights (since the Magny loss) and has potentially tried to limit wrestling to save his cardio. Malott has solid but not spectacular power at 170, so he’ll need to outpoint Buckley on the feet to win rounds.

I like Malott’s odds of doing so early enough to stack this fight in cash games, but for tournaments I’ll be much heavier on Buckley. I believe he should be favored, and he also has more takedown and finishing upside, making him the better tournament play.

The Easy Chalk

Nick Galanti ($9,500)

Once again, we have a fairly top-heavy slate, with three standouts at the top. The most expensive is Nick Galanti, who makes his UFC debut after a 35-second knockout victory on the Contender Series in August. I noted in my writeup of that fight that he’s actually more of a grappler, but he also packs plenty of power in his hands.

He’s a -700 favorite with -105 odds to win in the first round against Julian Leblanc ($6,700), whose most notable attribute is “being Canadian.” Leblanc is 0-1 in the UFC with a first-round submission loss and 10-3 as a pro overall, with his wins coming mainly in lesser promotions. The only reason he got the UFC call in the first place was to fill their last Canadian card, and at 34, he isn’t exactly a prospect.

What excites me the most about this fight is the prospect of Galanti breaking out his grappling after not needing it on the Contender Series, since Leblanc looked lost on the ground against Robert Valentin in his debut. That gives Galanti multiple paths to a win here, as a longer fight means more opportunities for takedowns.

He’s certainly the safest fighter on the slate given his odds. He’s also the only one of the top three male fighters to have much takedown upside, so he’s the strongest overall play if you have the salary available.

The Upside Plays

Cristian Perez ($9,200)

Cristian Perez is also making his UFC debut after a successful Contender Series bout, which came in his second try on the show. His first appearance ended in a third-round loss to Manoel Sousa (now 2-0 in the UFC) after Perez won the first two frames unanimously. The 27-year-old Perez is coming into his prime at the perfect time, as he makes his debut against Kyle Nelson ($7,000).

Nelson is a veteran of 12 UFC fights, going 5-6-1 over that time. At 35, his best days are probably in the rearview mirror, and he’s dropped two of his last three, both via knockout. Nelson is a well-rounded veteran with no gaping weaknesses, but he’s also nowhere near the athlete Perez is.

What makes Perez an ideal upside play is his need to finish things quickly. His cardio proved to be an issue in his first DWCS bout, and Nelson will continue to chip away if Perez doesn’t get him out of there. The good news is that the favorite is -200 to pick up a stoppage, making him a fairly solid bet for a big score.

Mandel Nallo ($9,100)

The final high-upside play is Mandel Nallo, a wild brawler who has never seen a decision in his 18-fight MMA career. Nallo picked up a first-round knockout as a slight underdog on the Contender Series in 2025, then made his debut in April against Jai Herbert. That fight featured three knockdowns in just 125 seconds, with Nallo suffering two of them and ultimately getting put away.

He gets a much easier matchup this time against Nate Landwehr ($7,100), a fan favorite known for his bloody fights. Unfortunately, “The Train” seems to be quickly pulling into retirement station, with Landwehr suffering three straight KO losses coming into the weekend. Each has been progressively less competitive, with his fading durability no longer able to support his reckless style.

While I’d love to be wrong here, I don’t believe Landwehr has the power or the chin to trade shots with the bigger, younger Nallo. This fight is -135 to end in the first round, with Nallo +100 to win inside of five minutes, which tells you everything you need to know about his upside. The risk is that Nallo really isn’t UFC level and Landwehr makes a last stand – I’ll have some exposure to both sides of this fight just in case – but that risk is relatively small.

The Value Play

Steven Koslow ($8,000)

The weirdest fight on this card is the prelim bout between Chad Anheliger ($8,200) and Steven Koslow. The Canadian Anhelinger makes some sense, as the UFC needs as much local talent as they can find, even if he turns 40 in December and hasn’t competed since 2024. I had completely forgotten about Koslow, though, who made his UFC debut on short notice in a knockout loss to Cameron Saaiman in 2022 – and hasn’t fought since.

Koslow did manage to pick up five takedowns before getting finished in the third round, a relatively promising result given his lack of a training camp for the fight. However, he’s been MIA for nearly four years, apparently due to multiple ACL injuries and a broken orbital bone suffered in training. That’s a lot of ring rust to overcome, but he gets a fairly soft matchup, especially stylistically, with Anhelinger allowing nine takedowns across his last two fights.

Koslow makes the value play section due to the line movement in his favor, though. He opened as a slight underdog but is now -162 on DraftKings. That’s a significant move in terms of implied probability, making him about $500 too cheap. Plus, the bear case is probably a decision loss with some takedowns mixed in, making him a high-floor play as well.

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The Contrarian Choice

Timmy Cuamba ($7,600)

Another fighter with a solid floor/ceiling combination thanks to his grappling upside is Timmy Cuamba, who takes on Louis Jourdain ($8,600) on the main card. Louis, the younger brother of longtime UFC fighter Charles, is making his UFC debut after a knockout victory on the Contender Series in September of 2025. That’s a fairly long layoff before his first walk to the UFC cage.

This is a fairly binary striker-vs-grappler matchup, with Jourdain dabbling in professional boxing between his MMA fights. He’s a high-output striker who is somewhat loose defensively, with his aggressive boxing leaving him vulnerable to takedowns. Like his brother, he relies more on submission attempts from his back than defensive wrestling, which is problematic against solid grapplers. There’s also the theory that every pair of brothers in the UFC has one who is much worse.

Cuamba landed at least one takedown in his first five UFC/DWCS bouts before running into Bernardo Sopaj, one of the best young bantamweights around. He’s also a former featherweight (who competed as high as lightweight) and should have a considerable size/strength edge on Jourdain.

Cuamba has never been knocked out in his career, so he should be able to, at a minimum, extend this fight. At best, he gets a grappling-heavy win that produces plenty of DFS points.

The Swing Fight

Javad Mahjoub ($8,300) vs. Joel Faglier ($7,900)

A heavyweight bout between debuting fighters is almost always a solid swing-fight candidate, and this week is no different. This time we get Iranian-born, Canadian-based fighter Javad Mahjoub taking on Joel Faglier, who steps in on short notice to replace Louie Sutherland and keep the Canadian(ish) fighter on the card.

Mahjoub is a former Olympic judoka who has competed across various grappling disciplines on top of his 5-0 MMA record. He’s a plus-athlete by heavyweight standards and is clearly who the UFC wants to promote, given that they initially paired him with the 1-3 Sutherland. However, the matchup with Faglier might be a bit tougher.

Coming from a fighting family – his father owns the gym he represents, which also produced UFC fighter Malcolm Wellmaker – Faglier is a highly skilled heavyweight. He has solid boxing, good wrestling, and vicious leg kicks. The problem is he’s somewhat limited athletically and will likely be a step slower than Mahjoub. However, Mahjoub’s skillset is fairly unproven, with his best MMA opponent holding just a 2-0 record.

“More skilled fighter vs. stronger athlete” is always a tough call in MMA, especially at heavyweight. I could see either man getting a quick finish here, and whoever gets on top first could very well finish the fight there. I’m leaning towards Mahjoub in part because of his lower ownership but want pieces of both sides of this fight.

Pictured: Mike Malott
Photo Credit: Imagn Images