Week 5 in the NFL includes the first bye weeks of the season and another matchup in London, leaving 11 games on the main NFL DFS slate for this Sunday. Just like last week, eight games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, which leaves just three games in the late window, highlighted by a big NFC West clash between the 49ers and the Seahawks. Let’s take a look at this 22-team slate and see which players the early projections are pointing to as values to target this week.
From a game-script perspective, the Detroit Lions have the highest implied team total on the board, and the Lions-Cardinals game has the highest over/under, which makes players from both those teams interesting to consider in what could be a high-scoring spot on the slate. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 5. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have them on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jacoby Brissett ($5,500) Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Detroit Lions (54.5 total)
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Jacoby Brissett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback by a wide margin. He stands out as a very affordable play in a smash spot against a Lions defense that has struggled to slow down any team’s passing game this season.
Brissett typically gets a high volume of opportunities and has a strong group of pass-catchers to work with. He has at least 35 pass attempts in all but one of his games this season. Last week, he completed 60% of his passes in New York for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He was stung by three interceptions and finished with only 13.4 DraftKings points, but the week before, he posted 25.6 DraftKings points against a solid 49ers defense.
Coming home should help the Cardinals offense as well, and Brissett gets a great matchup against the Lions, who have allowed more DraftKings points to QBs than any other team in the league. Quarterbacks facing the Lions have thrown 11 touchdowns and run for two more scores in four weeks while averaging 327 passing yards per game. The secondary is banged up and was shredded last Sunday night by the Panthers, so Brissett should be able to find spaces to attack this week.
A Cardinals stack is definitely worth considering given the Lions’ defensive struggles. Since Brissett focuses on Trey McBride ($6,700) and Michael Wilson ($6,200), both are solid core pieces to build around alongside him in Week 5.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Malik Washington ($4,600) Miami Dolphins (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (42.5 total)
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Malik Washington has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at wide receiver, including among all receivers under $7,500. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last two weeks and should continue to be a key part of the Dolphins’ offense.
The Dolphins are 0-4 and have also lost their offensive focal point, with De’Von Achane (knee) done for the season. While Ollie Gordon II ($5,300) has stepped up in the backfield, the team has had to rely more on QB Malik Willis ($4,600) to throw the ball, making Washington viable as the team’s clear top target.
Washington has posted five catches in each of the last two weeks, scoring 11.1 and 12 DraftKings points without finding the end zone. He has also gotten two carries in each of those contests, giving him more chances to make plays. He had 10 targets in Week 3 at home against the Chiefs, so the potential for even more production is there if he can convert more of those targets into catches.
While the offense has been far from outstanding, Washington has been getting enough volume to be a solid value. That is especially true if his team plays from behind, as the spread suggests it likely will this week against the Bengals.
Washington’s two strong showings came while rookie Caleb Douglas ($3,900) was out with an ankle injury. Douglas is still day-to-day, according to coach Jeff Hafley, but if the rookie remains on the sidelines for another week, Washington is poised to be a great value play once again.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Jaylen Warren ($6,700) Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44.5 total)
The Steelers suffered a tough loss to the Browns in Cleveland last Thursday. After plenty of time to think about it, they’ll return home to face the Colts, who are coming off a London game and could be at a significant rest disadvantage. Jaylen Warren will look to exploit that potential fatigue and smash his way to more success out of the Steelers’ backfield.
Warren has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, and the game script could tilt even more in his favor with a very rainy and windy weather forecast for Sunday in Pittsburgh. If the game gets ugly, Warren could be called on to carry the load in the trenches.
Warren has been very effective over the last two weeks while Rico Dowdle ($4,700) has been out with a toe injury, and Dowdle’s status for Sunday is still unclear. With the added workload, Warren rushed 17 times for 127 yards against the Bengals and 17 times for 93 yards against the Browns. He added three catches in each game, finishing with 23.6 DraftKings points against Cincinnati and 15.6 DraftKings points against Cleveland.
Warren is still looking for his first touchdown of the season, but he has delivered solid, consistent production even without any scores. He has a high ceiling if he continues to get this much work and adds a touchdown or two this week.
The Colts are a solid matchup for running backs, giving up the eighth-most DraftKings points to the position so far this season. If the weather makes throwing tough, look for the Steelers to pound the ball all afternoon against the Colts’ defensive front. That should set Warren up for a big game as a solid mid-range value under $7,000.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Isaiah Likely ($4,300) New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington Commanders (43.5 total)
Only Trey McBride (mentioned above) has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than Isaiah Likely this week. The Giants’ free-agent addition has been a featured part of the team’s passing game early this season and has shown a solid connection with Jameis Winston ($4,800), who has started since Jaxson Dart was injured.
Likely had a massive debut in Week 1, catching all eight of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 27.8 DraftKings points. He has come back to earth a little since then, but he received double-digit targets in Week 2 against the Rams and last week against the Cardinals. He hasn’t returned to the end zone since Week 1, but last week’s seven catches for 66 yards on 12 targets show that he brings a very high ceiling and a good floor thanks to that volume.
The Commanders are a top-10 matchup for tight ends in DraftKings points allowed this season. They have allowed a tight-end touchdown in each of their four games this year, along with an average of 60+ yards per game to the position.
With his consistently involved role and a juicy matchup against Washington, Likely has the potential to be an elite tight end play at a very affordable salary just over $4,000. Even if you build around McBride against the Lions, Likely is worth considering in a FLEX spot given both his ceiling and floor at this salary.
Pictured: Jaylen Warren
Photo Credit: Imagn
