UFC 332 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Silva vs. Cong, More Saturday Fights

We have one of the weaker numbered events in recent memory this weekend, with the headliner a fight for the now-vacant women’s flyweight title. Natalia Silva faces Wang Cong after her original matchup with Valentina Shevchenko was cancelled due to the now-former champion’s injury.

We still have plenty of big prize pools in DFS, though, with a 4:00 p.m. ET start time for the 14-fight card.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Natalia Silva ($8,700) vs. Wang Cong ($7,500)

Despite the hastily assembled UFC 332 main event, it’s an intriguing fight between two up-and-coming women in the flyweight division. Natalia Silva has long been considered a potential future champion, with an 8-0 UFC record and 14 straight wins overall. Her last three wins have all come against former champions: Rose Namajunas, Alexa Grasso, and Jessica Andrade.

Wang Cong is akin to a female Alex Pereira by virtue of holding a kickboxing win over a dominant division champion – in this case, Valentina Shevchenko. There was an obvious storyline if she could earn a title shot. Like Pereira, she came to MMA late but is 10-1 overall as a pro, including 5-1 in the UFC. Her best win to date was a July decision over Tracy Cortez, but the UFC needed some gold on the poster after Shevchenko’s withdrawal, and she got the call.

This is a solid “floor fight” for DFS. The odds favor it going all 25 minutes, and both women are fairly high-paced strikers. However, I have my doubts about the ceiling. Neither woman grapples much, so it’s hard to unlock a massive score without a finish. Plus, the altitude in Salt Lake City should slow the pace a bit, making it harder to bank on volume.

I’m fine with either or both women in cash games, depending on the salary needs of your lineup. For tournaments, I prefer Silva. With Cong taking this fight on somewhat short notice, there’s a decent chance she gasses out late, giving Silva a chance to pile up strikes or pick up a finish.

The Easy Chalk

Marcus McGhee ($8,500)

While it would have been nice to get him cheaper, we have a fairly obvious play in Marcus McGhee this week. McGhee was a slight favorite at around -150 in his original booking against Bernardo Sopaj, but Sopaj was forced to pull out during fight week. Replacing him is UFC newcomer Anthony Romero ($6,700), a 7-2 pro from California.

Short-notice fights are always difficult, but they’re even more difficult when the fight takes place at elevation. To make matters worse for Romero, McGhee is a top-10 UFC bantamweight – though this fight is at featherweight to allow Romero to make weight on short notice. McGhee is now a favorite at around -500, making him about $800 too cheap.

I have my concerns about McGhee in tournaments, given his lack of finishes in recent fights and the altitude potentially lowering his striking volume. This fight is favored to go over 2.5 rounds, which is another bearish indicator for McGhee’s upside. Still, he’s incredibly safe and could theoretically make the optimal lineup with a decision win, depending on how the rest of the slate shakes out.

I likely won’t come in above McGhee’s high projected ownership in tournaments, but he’s an obvious cash-game play. In fact, given the odds that this one goes long, there’s an argument for stacking this fight instead of the main event, with the combined salaries coming in $1,000 below those of Silva/Cong.

The Upside Plays

Jacobe Smith ($9,800)

The UFC 332 card features a bunch of heavily favored, exciting prospects, with the best odds belonging to Jacobe Smith. The former Oklahoma State wrestler is 12-0 in his professional MMA career, including four straight finishes across the UFC and Contender Series.

For some reason, instead of giving Smith a step up in competition, they’re feeding him UFC debutant Bruce Whitehead ($6,400), with Smith entering as around a -1100 favorite. His -160 odds to win in the first round are the best on the slate, and he has by far the best grappling upside among the other heavy favorites.

My projections have him about eight points clear of every other fighter, though he also has the highest salary on the slate. He’s a great option if you can find the salary, and his price tag should keep his ownership fairly low. Finding the right combination of value to play with him is tricky, but it’s probably worth the effort.

Damian Pinas ($9,400)

The next heavy favorite who should draw some attention this week is Damian “The Babayaga” Pinas, a 10-1 knockout artist with all of his wins coming inside the distance and his only loss coming via DQ. Since making it to the UFC, he’s picked up three straight first-round knockouts.

Like Smith, he’s not exactly facing a stiff test this time, as he takes on Andrey Pulayev ($6,800). The Russian is 1-3 with the promotion, though he notably went the distance with fellow massive middleweight knockout artist Ateba Gautier ($8,800), who also fights on the card.

Pinas and Gautier are very similar, but I believe Pinas is significantly better. He’s somehow even more powerful, trains with a more reputable camp in Nova Uniao, and gets the benefit of facing Pulayev after Pulayev suffered a bunch of damage at the hands of Gautier. The only drawback is the complete lack of takedown upside for Pinas, but given his tendency to finish fast, it probably doesn’t matter.

My plan is to have at least two of the fighters in this section in all of my tournament lineups, but Pinas might be my favorite of the group.

Anthony Wint ($9,300)

The final heavy favorite included in this section is former NFL player and high school wrestling standout Anthony Wint. Like Smith, he’s favored to win his fight in the first round, and he also draws a UFC newcomer in Lucas Armand ($6,900).

Wint made his Contender Series debut on August 11 and picked up his first UFC win just 11 days later. Both wins came in the first round, one via knockout and one via submission. The argument for Wint is that Armand is known as a striker, so the path of least resistance is through takedowns, giving Wint a higher ceiling than strikers like Pinas.

There’s also a bit more risk with Wint, who is likely to give up around 30 pounds to Armand. Plus, heavyweights at altitude are a scary proposition, though I trust Wint’s conditioning far more than Armand’s. However, because he’s also the cheapest of the bunch, he’s a bit easier to build around, and his ceiling is just as high.

The Value Play

Alden Coria ($7,600)

There’s not really an obvious value play on the UFC 332 card, with a handful of high-upside underdogs carrying alarmingly low floors. One of the few somewhat safe options is Coria, the primary sparring partner of flyweight champion Josh Van. Coria takes on Imanol Rodriguez ($8,600) in one of just three fights on the card favored to go all 15 minutes.

Like Van, Coria is a slick boxer with solid volume. He lacks Van’s massive power but can potentially make up for it through his offensive grappling. Coria has six takedowns across three UFC bouts, all of which were wins and lasted until at least the third round. I don’t want to bank on him finding grappling success against Rodriguez, who also excels there, but the potential exists.

More importantly, Coria has seen some slight line movement his way and is somewhat likely to get 15 minutes to pile up striking volume. I’m less worried about flyweights gassing out, especially a smooth fighter like Coria, and he could come on late against a more explosive opponent.

I might opt for some higher-upside underdogs even in cash games, but Coria checks all the traditional boxes for a floor option.

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The Contrarian Choice

Khaos Williams ($7,000)

One of those high-upside underdogs is Kalinn “Khaos” Williams, a Michigan-based welterweight who welcomes former KSW champion Roberto Soldic ($8,800) to the UFC. Soldić is a powerful striker who also has a slightly suspect chin and has gone to a decision just four times in 25 professional fights.

Williams has never been knocked out as a pro or even knocked down in the UFC but has five knockouts in seven UFC victories. He’ll have a disadvantage in the grappling department against Soldić, but that boosts his upside in one way: He might be entirely reliant on a knockout to have a shot at winning.

There’s also reason for optimism for Williams. Soldić has fought just once since a knockout loss in May 2023 and hasn’t made welterweight since 2021. The weight cut, ring rust, and UFC jitters create a lot to overcome, especially at altitude. Williams fending off some grappling in the first round before picking up a second- or third-round finish is a viable path here.

At just $7,000, any win is probably enough to make the optimal lineup, and Williams’ most likely paths to victory should all produce a big DFS score. Other high-upside, low-floor underdogs I’ll be mixing in include King Green ($7,300) and Court McGee ($7,200), but Williams is my top choice.

The Swing Fight

Ateba Gautier ($8,800) vs. Roman Kopylov ($7,400)

The final high-upside cheap option I’m looking at is Roman Kopylov, who takes on Ateba Gautier in what could be a Fight of the Night candidate. We touched on Gautier above, as he’s a somewhat similar fighter to Damian Pinas but slightly less polished and perhaps not quite as powerful. However, at 5-0, the UFC decided it was time for a step up in competition for the Cameroonian fighter, pairing him with 7-5 UFC veteran Roman Kopylov.

Kopylov is primarily a striker but comes from a combat sambo background. He’s been finished just twice in 20 professional fights. Both were submission losses to grapplers, which isn’t a concern against Gautier. Kopylov will mix in the occasional takedown, though, which could wear on Gautier’s gas tank. Gautier is a massive middleweight who could struggle to maintain his power in an extended fight.

Notably, Gautier’s lone previous UFC fight without a knockout came against a southpaw, with Andrey Pulayev outstriking him 59-34. Gautier still won by virtue of a pair of knockdowns, but the southpaw Kopylov could outland him on the feet and avoid that damage on his way to a win.

Of course, Gautier’s massive power also gives him tremendous upside, and Kopylov’s chin could crack at any moment given his age (35), lengthy combat sports career, and accumulated damage. For that reason, I’ll hedge my Kopylov bets with some Gautier as well, making this a fight where I’ll have exposure to both sides.

Pictured: Natalia Silva
Photo Credit: Imagn Images