The NFL kicks off Week 3 this Thursday night with an NFC matchup at historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay, where the Packers will host the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have stumbled to an 0-2 start, but they’ll turn from Cooper Rush to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback as they look to turn things around against the Packers, who lost to Minnesota in Week 1 but beat the Jets in overtime last week. In their home opener, the Packers are five-point favorites, while the over/under is 43.5 points.
The Falcons hired Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach this past offseason and brought in Tua Tagovailoa, who won the starting QB job in training camp before sustaining an oblique injury. Penix was still recovering from a partially torn ACL he suffered last season, which is why Rush started the first two weeks. The Falcons scored only 16 points total in those two games with Rush at the helm, but Penix should help them bounce back.
The Packers haven’t had a drama-free start to their season, either. RB Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and away from the team indefinitely. He could also face a suspension, so his timeline for returning to the field is extremely uncertain. The team also lost key right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele to a season-ending knee injury last week and Jayden Reed to a neck injury, changing what it can do on offense. Keep those storylines in mind as we take a closer look at this Thursday night matchup from a DFS showdown perspective.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The biggest fantasy stud on this slate is undoubtedly Bijan Robinson, who is the key to the Falcons offense and one of the top running backs in the NFL. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both sets of projections, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in a FLEX spot.
Robinson had a monster game in Week 1, finding the end zone as a receiver while catching eight of his 10 targets for 90 yards and adding 83 rushing yards on 21 carries. He finished with 31.3 DraftKings points against the Steelers but was held to just 11.1 DraftKings points by the Panthers in Week 2. He still had 72 rushing yards on 16 carries and three catches for nine yards, but the Falcons offense managed just three points. Without much of a passing threat, they couldn’t keep the Panthers from stacking the box against Robinson while building a big lead.
As long as the move to Michael Penix Jr. at QB gives the offense a little more spark, Robinson’s ceiling should be higher this week in Green Bay in a favorable matchup. The Packers have allowed three RB touchdowns in their two games this year and at least 100 combined rushing and receiving yards to the position in each game. Robinson should find room to work on Thursday night and is a true stud to build around.
He is projected to have the highest ownership in the Captain spot and the second-highest in a FLEX spot, but he also has the highest rate of finishing as Captain in the optimal lineup in our NFL SimLabs. He is one of two players with a positive Optimal vs. Projected Ownership score in SimLabs.
The other player with a positive Optimal vs. Projected Ownership score in SimLabs is Falcons receiver Drake London. London was expected to be a top receiver this season but has been limited by the struggling passing game. He caught only two of five targets for 29 yards in Week 1, then caught four of five targets for 51 yards in Week 2. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but he has a good chance to change that this week.
The Packers have allowed 25 catches for 246 yards and three touchdowns to wide receivers over their first two games, so London has the potential to bounce back with Penix stepping in. While Penix had mixed results as a starter, he demonstrated a great rapport with London and the ability to get him the ball in the right places to make plays.
In their 14 games together, London averaged 6.5 catches and 91.9 yards per game. He also scored nine touchdowns during those games. In their last six games together, London went for 100+ yards five times and found the end zone six times. Those numbers came in a different offensive system, but they show that London should be able to get going now that Penix is back.
On the other side of the matchup, the Packers will be without Jayden Reed, leaving Christian Watson and Matthew Golden as the primary receivers for Jordan Love. Watson has been the highest scorer of the three so far this season, producing a huge 35.7 DraftKings points against the Vikings in Week 1 and following that up with 14.1 against the Jets in Week 2.
Watson has scored all of the Packers’ wide receiver touchdowns and leads the team with a 27.54% target share and 188 receiving yards. The Falcons haven’t allowed a wide receiver touchdown yet this season, although Tetairoa McMillan reached 100 receiving yards against them last week.
In the SimLabs projections, Watson has the fourth-highest chance of being Captain in the optimal lineup and a slightly negative Optimal vs. Projected Ownership score. In a 50/50 aggregate of the FantasyLabs and THE BLITZ projections, he has the third-highest median and floor projections in the matchup.
Love has the second-highest median, floor, and ceiling projections in that blended set, along with the second-highest Plus/Minus projection behind only Robinson.
He threw for an impressive 387 yards in Minnesota with a pair of touchdowns and 24.5 DraftKings points in Week 1, but he managed only 145 passing yards in bad weather in New York in Week 2. He still threw a pair of touchdowns, though, so his 13.8 DraftKings points weren’t a total miss. Love’s rushing production is very limited: He has only one carry this season.
He still has the potential for a big game in the home opener, since he’s carrying so much of the offensive workload with the running game struggling without Josh Jacobs (more on the other options below).
Love has the highest ownership projection in a FLEX spot and an even higher optimal-lineup rate, so he’s almost a must-own while he shoulders so much of the Packers’ workload.
Reed’s loss is a big one for the Packers, but Golden’s emergence has helped cushion the blow. The second-year receiver never got rolling as a rookie, but he has served as the team’s second receiver across from Watson and been very effective this season.
He had six catches on 12 targets for 95 yards in Week 1 and caught 4-of-6 targets for 58 yards in Week 2. He hasn’t found the end zone, but he is only one target behind Watson for the team lead. He also led the team in receiving yards in Week 2, not even counting a key 38-yard pass-interference penalty as the Packers came back to force overtime.
Golden is significantly cheaper than the other stud options, but he brings a very high ceiling to this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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