The UFC’s road tour continues this week in Seattle, with former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya taking on surging prospect Joe Pyfer in the main event.
We’re back to our usual 5 p.m. ET start time this week, with the entire 13-fight card airing on Paramount+ streaming.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
Updated on 3/27/26
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Israel Adesanya ($8,500) vs. Joe Pyfer ($7,700)
The UFC Seattle main event represents a major crossroads in the career of both fighters involved. Israel Adesanya is the second-best middleweight of all time but has won just 1 of his last 5, with 3 of those losses coming via knockout. Joe Pyfer has only recently cracked the official rankings after picking up his 3rd straight win, none of which came over ranked competition.
Which is to say Adesanya should win this 1 fairly easily. He’s a far more skilled fighter than Pyfer, with elite kickboxing and strong takedown defense. However, given his recent form and the fact that 3 of those losses have been via knockout, there’s reason to be concerned for the former champ.
Pyfer’s best attribute is easily his punching power. He’s not an especially technical striker, but he only needs to land 1 to take a fight. Adesanya’s chin and reflexes are both now in question, so Pyfer has a puncher’s chance, particularly early in the fight.
Which makes him the better overall DFS play, particularly in GPPs. There are plenty of outcomes where Adesanya wins but doesn’t qualify for the optimal lineup, while Pyfer getting it done almost certainly means a reasonably quick KO. Paired with his cheaper salary, that’s enough to make him the better GPP play on paper.
The best GPP play might be to fade this fight, though, considering the inflated ownership we typically see in main events. I suppose stacking it in cash games is fine – we need the salary savings – but it’s certainly not mandatory if you can make lineups work without it.
The Easy Chalk
Lerryan Douglas ($9,000)
There are a ton of strong options at the top of the salary scale this week, as the 5 most expensive fighters are all heavy favorites in fights favored to end inside the distance (with 1 close exception to the latter clause). The safest option is probably Douglas, thanks to his $9,000 salary being a bit easier to get to in cash games.
The UFC rookie is taking on Julian Erosa ($7,200), a few months removed from an impressive Contender Series performance. His Contender Series bout lasted just 36 seconds, although I hesitate to draw too many conclusions based on the fairly weak competition he faced there. Still, Douglas was 1 of last season’s best fighters and is already in the prime of his career at 30 years old.
He draws a somewhat challenging debut opponent in Erosa, who is 9–8 in the UFC and isn’t exactly washed at 36 years old. Douglas is a far better athlete, though, with a considerable power and speed edge. Considering that 6 of Erosa’s UFC losses (and 4 of the last 5) have been via knockout, it’s easy to see how Douglas gets to a big score here.
Based on my scouting of him prior to the Contender Series, Douglas will at worst push a high pace, so even if he fails to pick up a finish, he should score reasonably well. While the other fighters near his price point are arguably likelier to pick up a quick finish, they’re also more dependent on 1, making Douglas the safer bet.
The Upside Play
Michael Chiesa ($9,500)
Michael Chiesa is the rare UFC fighter being put in a good spot for his retirement fight. The Washington native gets to fight in front of his home crowd and is a massive favorite against Niko Price ($6,700), who is stepping in on somewhat short notice as Chiesa’s final opponent.
Chiesa brings a 3-fight win streak into this fight – another anomaly for a fighter planning on hanging them up – and is less than 2 years older than Price, so there’s really no reason to believe he’s at a disadvantage here. Price has dropped 3 straight bouts and is a far inferior grappler to Chiesa, creating a clear path to victory.
Plus, with his massive salary, we’ll be getting an ownership discount on Chiesa, who could easily get to the top score via takedowns if this fight extends long enough. While the likeliest outcome might be needing just 1 takedown to submit Price, there’s at least a clear path to a finish for “Maverick.”
Terrance McKinney ($8,700)
Terrance McKinney fights in the UFC have 2 possible outcomes. Option A is that he finishes his opponent in the first half of the 1st round. None of his 7 UFC wins have taken longer than 2 minutes and 17 seconds, and they’ve all been worth at least 97 points.
The other option is McKinney’s opponent makes it through the first 150 seconds and finishes McKinney inside of 2 rounds. McKinney has never made it to the midway point of the 2nd round in any of his losses, though he’s also had some quicker defeats.
That makes both McKinney and his opponent, Kyle Nelson ($7,500), high-variance, high-upside options on Saturday. As about a -180 favorite, McKinney is the likely winner, and any win almost certainly gets him in the optimal lineup at his price tag – making him a strong GPP play.
The Value Play
Adrian Yanez ($7,600)
Considering how likely the favorites of this card are to either finish their wins early or completely dominate the action, it’s hard to find many cheap fighters to get excited about. 1 potential option for salary relief is Yanez, who returns from an extended absence to take on Ricky Simon ($8,600) in a bantamweight bout.
Yanez has caught some slight line movement this week, and this fight is favored to go the full 15 minutes. More importantly, the odds suggest he holds most of the finishing upside – Yanez is -160 on the “finish only” moneyline via DraftKings.
Extrapolating from that, we’ve got a fairly good chance of Yanez either winning via finish or getting 15 minutes to pick up points, making him both a high-floor and high-ceiling option relative to his salary. Normally, I’d be a bit more hesitant to invest heavily in a fighter who is 2–3 over his last 5 and hasn’t fought since 2024, but given the lack of better options, I’m taking my chances this week.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
The Contrarian Choice
Lance Gibson Jr. ($7,300)
The more I’ve thought about this fight, the more I’ve talked myself into being on Gibson when he takes on Chase Hooper ($8,900) at UFC Seattle.
Gibson made his UFC debut on just 3 days’ notice last winter, taking notoriously tricky veteran King Green to a split decision. Gibson showed off his wrestling, landing 2 takedowns on Green and nearly picking up the upset.
That makes him a tough matchup for Hooper, a former grappling prodigy who has grown up in the UFC. “The Dream” had just turned 20 when he made his UFC debut in 2019 and is now 8–4 after 7 years in the promotion. He’s still largely reliant on his grappling, though – which could make for a long night if he’s unable to get Gibson to the ground.
Hooper still has major holes in his striking game, getting finished in the 1st round by Alex Hernandez in his last fight, and has just 39% striking defense. I’d argue that Gibson is a better wrestler than Hernandez, so he has a similar shot at turning this 1 into a kickboxing match. Hooper should win this fight, but I can see how he doesn’t, which gives me some interest in Gibson for GPPs.
The Swing Fight
Mansur Abdul-Malik ($8,200) vs. Yousri Belgaroui ($8,000)
While I’ll also have plenty of action on both sides of McKinney–Nelson, the salary dynamics of the middleweight bout between Mansur Abdul-Malik and Yousri Belgaroui make it an almost must-play on Saturday.
It’s a relatively binary fight, with Belgaroui a former kickboxer with a win over Alex Pereira, whom he now trains with under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira. He’s only 5 years into his transition to MMA but has gone 4–0 since losing on his first trip to the Contender Series. He’s clearly following the Pereira game plan to transition to MMA, and it’s working as he develops solid defensive grappling.
Abdul-Malik also made his way to the UFC via a win on the 2024 season of the Contender Series and is now 3–0–1 in the promotion. While he’s a more than capable striker, his edge here lies in the grappling department, with vicious ground-and-pound once he’s able to get his opponent down.
If this 1 stays standing, we likely see a fairly easy knockout for Belgaroui, while Abdul-Malik should have no problem finishing the job if he gets this to the canvas. I’m not sure which outcome we see, but either one likely produces a fighter in the optimal lineup, so I’ll have plenty of this matchup in GPPs.
Interested in more action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Israel Adesanya
Photo Credit: Imagn
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC 285 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Jones vs. Gane, More Saturday Fights
UFC Fight Night: San Antonio DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Vera vs. Sandhagen, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 91 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nicolau vs. Perez, More Saturday Fights
UFC Saudi Arabia DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Whittaker vs. Aliskerov, More Saturday Fights
