We’ve got a fun main event in Houston, as former middleweight champion Sean Strickland takes on the UFC’s most exciting grappler in Anthony Hernandez. It should be a good one for DFS purposes, with only four of the 14 fights on the card favored to involve the judges.
As is the new normal, the slate locks at 5:00 PM ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Anthony Hernandez ($9,100) vs. Sean Strickland ($7,100)
This is an incredible fight for DFS standards, as it pits the UFC’s all-time middleweight record holders for takedowns (Hernandez) and significant strikes (Strickland) into one matchup. While Strickland has a deserved reputation for not being as assertive as he should be, his low-damage strikes all score just the same for DFS. On the other hand, Hernandez is rivaled only by Merab Dvalishvili in terms of takedown output, averaging just under 6.5 per 15 minutes in his UFC career.
Strickland is a solid dance partner for Hernandez to build on his takedown record. He is — or was — a UFC black belt who has never been submitted and has consistently been able to get back to his feet following takedowns. Every time he escapes, he theoretically gives Hernandez another scoring opportunity, which gives “Fluffy” a massive ceiling here.
However, I expect Strickland to last the full 25 minutes more often than not here, and with his high-output striking, he can easily pay off his cheap salary even in a loss. On a slate where I’m not especially interested in many underdogs, I’m considering stacking this one in a portion of my GPP lineups. I’ll be much heavier on Hernandez than Strickland overall, though.
Of course, that means it’s a clear cash game stack. No need to overthink it.
The Easy Chalk
Yadier del Valle ($9,400)
There are a few options at the top this week, but my personal favorite is “The Cuban Problem,” Yadier del Valle. He’s most known for being on the winning end of the Isaac Dulgarian fight-fixing scandal, but he’s a legitimate prospect in his own right.
YDV was an elite Judo competitor in his native Cuba before transitioning to MMA, where he holds a 10-0 record. In the UFC proper, he’s picked up consecutive first-round submission victories, plus had a dominant performance on the Contender Series with two takedowns and over 100 significant strikes.
That makes him a terrible matchup for Jordan Leavitt ($6,800). “The Monkey King” is a highly skilled grappler but below-average athlete, who needs to get the fight to the ground to have a chance. Against a fellow grappler like del Valle, his odds of doing so are fairly low, so it’s hard to see a path to a win for Leavitt.
Whether or not del Valle does enough to pay off his salary in GPPs is a reasonable question, but he’s an extremely safe cash game play. I’ll be over the field in GPPs myself, but I get the argument against him on a card with ten fights favored to end inside the distance.
The Upside Plays
Carli Judice ($9,700)
One of the counterarguments to del Valle in GPPs is the presence of Carli Judice for just $300 more. “Crispy” is the biggest favorite on the card, and -160 to defeat Julianna Miller ($6,500) inside the distance.
More importantly for DFS, she averages double-digit significant strikes per minute, clearing the 100 significant strike mark in every fight that she didn’t win in the first round (including her Contender Series appearance). That gives her multiple paths to a huge score, which is important on this slate.
Miller is a fairly one-dimensional jiu-jitsu player, who crucially lacks the takedown ability (38% success rate) against a better athlete like Judice. The longer this one stays on the feet, the more points Judice will rack up.
Judice leads my projections in both median and ceiling (outside of the main event), making her a strong play in all contest types.
Jacobe Smith ($9,300)
Jacobe Smith has a much wider range of outcomes in his fight than the other expensive pieces we’ve mentioned. He’s taking on UFC newcomer Josiah Harrell ($6,900), who initially signed with the UFC in 2023 before pre-fight medicals detected a brain anomaly, forcing him into potentially life-saving surgery.
Following his recovery, Harrell has ripped off four finishes in nine months. Crucially for this matchup, he’s an elite submission grappler. That’s relevant here because Smith is a three-time D1 All-American wrestler who will certainly get to dictate where this fight takes place.
He could choose to avoid the ground — and it might be the smartest bet — but that would limit his DFS ceiling. That is, unless his superior athleticism powers him to another quick knockout like he scored in his UFC debut. Of course, he could choose to wrestle anyway and probably pile up lots of takedowns against a fighter somewhat willing to accept them.
I also don’t know much about Harrell’s striking ability, so handicapping the former outcome is tricky. Sometimes matchups like these turn into tepid kickboxing matchups, which would be a problem at his price point. I like that Smith has two reasonable paths to a big score against a short-notice replacement opponent, though, so I’ll have a decent amount of him in GPPs.
Updated on 2/20/26
The Value Play
Nora Cornolle ($7,000)
There’s not a ton of value I’m especially interested in on this slate, but one that stands out, especially in cash games, is Cornolle. She’s facing Joselyne Edwards ($9,200) in a rematch from Cornolle’s UFC debut and is a big underdog despite winning the initial matchup.
That fight wasn’t without controversy, as roughly 75% of fans and 50% of media members scored it for Edwards. However, at worst it was an extremely close fight, with Cornolle doing plenty of damage on the feet between the five takedowns landed by Edwards.
The mitigating factor is that Cornolle, a former kickboxer, was just two years into her MMA career at that point. She’s now more than doubled her MMA experience (by time, not fights) and has surely devoted some time to improving her grappling. She was dominated on the mat by Karol Rosa in her last fight, but Rosa is a much better grappler than Edwards.
In fact, Edwards is typically more of a striker, but not at the level of Cornolle. Edwards also made her UFC debut before Cornolle had an MMA fight, so I’d expect the bigger improvements to come from Cornolle despite her being older.
Plus, this is the fight likeliest to see the judges, making Cornolle, at worst, a solid cash game floor play.
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The Contrarian Choice
Uros Medic ($7,500)
Continuing with the theme of hunting for value plays that normally would be a reach, one I like for GPPs is Uros “The Doctor” Medic. He’s taking on Geoff Neal ($8,700) in a matchup of powerful strikers, who collectively have had their last five fights end inside the first round.
Typically that would make this an ideal “swing fight” candidate, but we have an even stronger one this time around. For salary reasons, in this pairing I’ll be heavier on the underdog. Neal is 1-3 across his last four, with his only win coming against Rafael dos Anjos on RDA’s 40th birthday. That win also came via a somewhat fluky injury, though Neal’s leg kicks contributed to the situation.
Medic has won three of his last four, with every win coming in the first round. I also have some technical reasons for backing Medic that I discuss in my full preview for this fight, which you can check out there if you’re so inclined.
Any win for Medic in the UFC Houston co-main event probably gets him in the optimal lineup at his price point. Even so, betting odds have about 75% of his win condition being a stoppage based on his +1200 decision odds, which furthers the cause for him as a GPP play.
The Swing Fight
Carlos Leal ($8,200) vs. Chidi Njokuani ($8,000)
The aforementioned swing fight candidate is a welterweight bout between Carlos Leal and Chidi Njokuani, which has both the best stoppage odds on the slate (-750) and is effectively a pick ’em from a betting and salary standpoint.
Leal drives a lot of that, as he’s landed more than nine significant strikes per minute in the UFC while absorbing more than 7.5. His defensive lapses cost him in his last fight, in which he was knocked out in just 42 seconds by Muslim Salikhov. He’s wisely taken about seven months to recover, but it’s still a slight concern.
On the other side of this matchup is Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani. Njokuani is also a powerful striker, with three of his five UFC wins coming via knockout. He’s extremely dangerous early but tends to fade down the stretch and/or when forced to grapple.
That makes for a fun combination with Leal. The Brazilian has shown an ability to build as fights go on, occasionally grapples, and is also capable of being caught early. I’m not confident in either fighter in this matchup, but I want as much exposure as I can get to both sides.
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Pictured: Anthony Hernandez
Photo Credit: Imagn
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