The UFC returns to the APEX for the first time in 2026, with an uncharacteristically solid card for the venue. The 14-fight card has an important bantamweight matchup at the top, with Mario Bautista looking to rejoin the title hunt by dispatching the fast-rising Vinicius Oliveira
As is the new normal, the slate locks at 5:00 ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Mario Bautista ($8,800) vs. Vinicius Oliveira ($7,400)
The much-maligned Mario Bautista was riding an eight-fight win streak last fall when he was paired against Umar Nurmagomedov. Umar is a former title challenger and at worst the third-best bantamweight in the world, and he snapped Bautista’s streak in large part thanks to the 11 takedowns he landed.
Bautista had his moments though, dropping his opponent in the second round and helping to quell some of the criticism of his generally risk-averse style. That makes for an interesting clash against Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira, given the latter’s well-earned reputation as an all-action fighter.
Oliveira is 4-0 in the UFC with notable wins over Said Nurmagomedov (no relation to Umar) and Kyler Phillips and averages over five significant strikes per minute and more than half a takedown per round. While I don’t expect Oliveira to lean too heavily on the wrestling in this matchup, he’s landed at least one takedown in all four UFC bouts.
That makes him a solid per-minute scorer, competing in a fight that’s favored to go over 3.5 rounds. At worst that gives him a solid floor and could even give him GPP-winning upside at his price tag if he’s able to maintain his pace in a decision loss. Bautista is the deserving favorite here but might not cover his price in a decision victory, which makes Oliveira my preferred GPP play.
I could also see a case for passing on Bautista even in cash games given the more appealing options at the top, though that ultimately comes down to roster construction. I default to stacking five-rounders unless I strongly prefer another lineup build, which will be my plan again this week.
The Easy Chalk
Javid Basharat ($8,300)
At the time of this writing, there are still no betting lines out on Basharat for his fight against Gianni Vazquez (TBD), who steps in on three-day notice to replace the aforementioned Said Nurmagomedov against Basharat. However, there’s a good chance that Basharat could close as the heaviest favorite on the slate but is priced as effectively a pick ’em option.
I considered listing him as the value play as well, but he’s effectively a “free square” at his price tag and thus will come with massive ownership. Javid is probably the lesser of the two Basharat brothers — Farid Basharat ($9,000) also competes on this card — but he’s 3-2 in the promotion and scores reasonably well in his wins (82.4 PPG average in UFC wins).
I don’t know much about Vazquez, other than that he was the victim of some extremely incompetent refereeing against fellow future UFC fighter Edgar Chairez in a 2023 bout (don’t watch if you’re squeamish). He’s also typically a flyweight, coming up a weight class in order to compete on short notice against Basharat.
Neither of those are good signs, so I’m willing to eat the chalk and try to beat my opponents with my other five roster spots this weekend.
The Upside Play
Daniil Donchenko ($9,600)
There are two tempting plays at the top, the more expensive of which is Ultimate Fighter Season 33 winner Daniil Donchenko. The Ukrainian picked up a first-round knockout in the semi-finals of the reality series, then another in the championship round (which doubled as his first official UFC bout), earning him a cool 123 DraftKings points in the process.
The UFC is giving him journeyman Alex Morono ($6,600). Morono is coming up on a decade of UFC service, during which he’s compiled a respectable 13-9 promotional record. However, he’s lost three straight, including a first-round TKO loss to Carlos Leal in his last outing. He’s now officially been knocked out three times in the UFC, plus had a knockout loss overturned due to a positive drug test for marijuana by his opponent (and fellow UFC Vegas 113 fighter) Niko Price ($7,300).
While he’s probably not over the hill athletically at 35 years old, the damage has started to add up, and this fight definitely wasn’t made to push the veteran. Donchenko has plenty of power and is just +140 for a first-round finish, so he’s a solid bet for a big score this weekend.
Michal Oleksiejczuk ($9,100)
Of the two expensive fighters listed, my (slight) preference is for Oleksiejczuk, who has found a career resurgence since joining the “Fighting Nerds” team in Brazil. The 30-year-old has consecutive first-round knockout victories and is being given another winnable matchup against Marc-Andre Barriault ($7,100) on Saturday.
“Power Bar” is 1-4 over his last five, with his lone win coming against Bruno Silva, which capped off a five-fight losing streak for Silva. In those losses he was knocked out twice and absorbed at least 93 significant strikes in the other two. He’s generally extremely hittable, with 5.63 significant strikes taken per minute in his UFC career.
Which makes him a terrible matchup for Oleksiejczuk. “Hussar” has his own flaws, primarily his defensive grappling, but power isn’t one of them. Eight of his nine UFC victories have been knockouts, and he’s -250 to pick up another this week. He’s also even money for a first-round win — better odds than Donchenko at a cheaper price — making him a high-upside play for all contest types.
Updated on 2/6/26
The Value Play
Bruna Brasil ($7,800)
There are three women’s fights on the UFC Vegas 113 card, and I lean towards the underdog (relative to their price tag) in all three of them. My highest confidence of those plays is Brasil, who has an ideal stylistic matchup against fellow Brazilian Ketlen Souza ($8,400).
Brasil checks all of the typical cash game value boxes. The line has shifted slightly her way, and her fight against Souza is tied for the best odds (depending on sportsbook) to go to a decision on the slate. More importantly, Brasil is a grappler and has landed six takedowns across her three UFC wins.
Souza is the better striker but doesn’t have a ton of finishing upside, and she’s been taken down a total of nine times across her two-fight losing streak. That’s a poor combination for a fight against Brasil, but an ideal setup for DFS.
Even if Souza does enough on the feet to win a decision, the takedowns from Brasil give her a solid floor for cash games. If she’s able to control enough of the action to get a win, she could even potentially sneak into the optimal lineup, so I’ll have some exposure to her in GPPs as well.
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The Contrarian Choice
Amir Albazi ($6,900)
I’ll have a full preview of the co-main event between Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi ($9,300) at The Action Network this week, but the cliff notes are that this is a classic “dog or pass” fight from both a betting and DFS standpoint.
Horiguchi made his return to the UFC with an impressive win over Tagir Ulanbekov, while Albazi hasn’t fought since late 2024. However, Albazi’s grappling-heavy approach has long been the downfall of Horiguchi, dating back to his original UFC run and his time in other major promotions.
Horiguchi’s last loss came against Patchy Mix, who dominated him on the ground via takedowns and control. That’s precisely what Albazi excels at, making this a fairly binary fight between the superior striker (Horiguchi) and a wrestler in Albazi.
I have enough concerns over Albazi’s health — his long gaps between fights have been due to neck and heart surgery, among other issues — but at his best he was a top-five or so flyweight. While I usually prefer to roster fighters in their second fight back from an extended absence, the buy-low spot here is too good to pass up, so I’ll be well over the field in exposure to the underdog.
The Swing Fight
Klaudia Sygula ($8,600) vs. Priscilla Cachoeira ($7,600)
This is a somewhat tough slate for a “swing fight,” since the bouts with the best stoppage odds have one overwhelming favorite. However, we have an interesting option in the women’s bantamweight division, thanks to the presence of Priscilla “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira.
Cahcoeira is a swing fight personified. Less than 40% of fights in the division end inside the distance, but 75% of hers have been settled without the judges. As her nickname implies, Cachoeira has little interest in defense, walking forward zombie-like into her opponent’s strikes while absorbing over seven significant strikes per minute. On the positive side, four of her five UFC wins have come via knockout, so she can get nearly as well as she gets got.
Sygula is a high-output, low-damage striker but is likely able to finish Cachoeira if she can extend the fight. At worst, Cachoeira’s lack of defense should lead to plenty of significant strikes landed for Sygula, who also has some takedown upside in this fight.
While it’s not a fight I’m willing to go 100% exposure to, both women have a pretty clear path to the optimal lineup, making it one where I’ll have a bit of both fighters in GPPs.
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Pictured: Mario Bautista
Photo Credit: Imagn
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