We’ve got consecutive numbered events for two week sin a row for the first time in many years, with UFC 325 on the heels of UFC 324 last weekend. This card has 14 fights — at least for now — headlined by a featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.
As is the new normal, the slate locks at 5:00 ET with the start of the preliminary card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski ($8,500) vs. Diego Lopes ($7,700)
The rematch between Volkanovski and Lopes is one of the more maligned title fights in recent memory. Not because the first fight was bad — it wasn’t — but due to the plethora of deserving featherweight challengers still waiting their turn for a title shot. Since their prior meeting early last year, Lopes is 1-0, while this is an immediate rematch for Volkanovski.
Volkanovski was relatively dominant in that first fight, winning four of the five rounds. The lone exception was the second round, where Lopes dropped Volkanovski to steal a round he otherwise was losing. Despite that, the betting lines and DFS salaries are roughly the same as they were for that fight, which feels like a mistake.
Yes, Volkanovski is (almost) another year older, but I doubt his skills have degraded that much in that time span. He’s also another year removed from the back-to-back knockouts he suffered before the Lopes fight, which, if anything, could be a good sign for the two-time champion. While the knockdown in the last fight was concerning, the long layoff alleviates much of that.
For those reasons, I’ll be heavy on Volk in GPPs. He’s an all-time DFS great, averaging over 115 DraftKings points in his five-round wins, and has only been held under 60 points twice in his 17 UFC fights.
However, this is an easy stack for cash games. The fight is roughly even money to go all 25 minutes, and Lopes is a solid per-minute scorer himself.
The Easy Chalk
Quillan Salkilld ($9,700)
I sometimes hesitate to list ultra-pricey options as “easy chalk,” but there’s enough value on this slate that getting up to Salkilld should be relatively doable. The Australian was originally slated to fight Rongzhu, but an injury forced the Chinese fighter out.
His replacement is Jamie Mullarkey ($6,500), who could be the ideal stylistic opponent for Salkilld. Salkilld has two first-round knockouts in three UFC fights, and Mullarkey is great at getting knocked out. He’s been knocked out three times in his last five fights, some of which were particularly brutal.
Mullarkey is a grappler on paper, but Salkilld picked up eight takedowns in the one fight he didn’t finish with a knockout (plus nine on the Contender Series) and has never been taken down himself. There’s a reason he’s north of -1000 on the moneyline, and close to a coin flip to pick up a first-round victory.
There’s another fighter, Tallison Teixeira ($9,100), with slightly better first-round odds, but Salkilld has the grappling upside to post a big score even without a fast finish, giving him the overall edge.
The Upside Play
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,200)
Saint-Denis is another fighter on the UFC 325 main card known for both his finishing ability and his grappling upside. The Frenchman has seen a decision just once in 19 professional fights and has finished all 16 of his wins. He also averages more than four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, though of course, he’s never been a full 15 minutes in any one fight.
He also has a favorable matchup in fan-favorite Dan Hooker ($7,000). “Hangman” is now 35 years old, seemingly perpetually injured, and has been finished in each of his last four losses. He’s also needed split decisions in his last two wins, so even at his best, he’s not exactly dominating.
Hooker gave up two takedowns and over six minutes of control time before being submitted in his last fight, which lasted less than nine minutes total. Given Saint-Denis’ aggressive grappling, he should be able to reproduce something similar and finish Hooker on the ground with either strikes or a submission.
Saint-Denis is a roughly -350 moneyline favorite who has never scored less than 100 DraftKings points in a win, which adds up to very good odds to end up in the optimal lineup.
Updated on 1/30/26
The Value Play
Torrez Finney ($7,600)
There’s not a single fight on the UFC 325 card with odds longer than +140 to go to a decision. The matchup between Torrez Finney and Jacob Malkoun falls just short of that with +130 odds, which gives the underdog Finney one of the stronger floor projections among the cheaper fighters.
He’s also had the line move a bit his way, opening around +150 odds before moving as low as +115 on Friday. That means he should be a few hundred dollars more expensive, another sign of solid value.
Both he and Malkoun are grapplers; the Australian is a stronger submission artist, while Finney is a former D1 wrestler. That means we could see Malkoun accepting takedowns and control time from Finney while he hunts submissions, which would certainly boost Finney’s score.
Or, Finney could respect the grappling of Malkoun and attempt to keep this one standing. That’s a less favorable outcome for DFS purposes but probably leads to a 15-minute fight and a score we could live with at Finney’s price tag. Either way, he’s a solid cash game option with some fringe GPP-appeal.
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The Contrarian Choice
Lawrence Lui ($7,200)
The first four fights on the UFC 325 prelims aren’t official UFC fights, but they’re eligible for DraftKings contests. They’re the championship bouts of the fourth season of the Road to UFC tournament, which consists of eight-man brackets in every men’s division from 125lbs to 155lbs.
My general feeling is that we’ll see lower ownership of most fighters from these fights, as they aren’t known names to the typical UFC fan. That would be a mistake, with three of those four favored to end inside the distance.
The biggest underdog in those four fights is Lui, who takes on Sulangrangbo ($9,000) in the bantamweight final. I broke down all four fights from a betting standpoint and identified some potential value on the 7-1 City Kickboxing prospect Lui.
Sulangragbro is a fast, dangerous striker who is at his best when he can settle into a striking rhythm. Lui has a 5.5-inch reach edge, uses a heavy dose of feints, and mixes in takedowns often. All of those are ideal tools to disrupt the flow of the 20-year-old favorite, and if he’s able to land the takedowns he often threatens, he has plenty of upside.
The Swing Fight
Namsrai Batbayar ($8,300) vs. Aaron Tau ($7,900)
The first fight of the night might be the most anticipated. That’s the flyweight final between New Zealand’s Aaron Tau and Mongolia’s Namsrai Batbayar. Both men are all-action fighters. They’ve collectively finished three of their four preliminary round wins, with Tau picking up a knockdown in his decision victory.
In my betting preview, I made the case for both men. Tau is the more explosive athlete, mixing in heavy strikes and big slam takedowns. That explosiveness comes with a cost, though, as he often fades later in his fights when he doesn’t find the finish.
Batbayar can generate his power without loading up as heavily and should be able to maintain his pace throughout the fight. I worry about his defensive grappling against Tau, but should he survive, he should find himself in a position to take over down the stretch.
Both should score well on a per-minute basis, and I can see a case for either winning. Combined with their moderate price tags, that means either could be in the optimal lineup. I’ll have a slight lean towards Tau, but will be ahead of the field on both.
Update: Tau-Batbayar was cancelled Friday Morning due to Tau’s weight miss.
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Pictured: Diego Lopes (left) & Alexander Volkanovski (right)
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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