Sunday Night Football for Week 15 pits the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are listed as 5.5-point home favorites, while the total currently sits at 47.5 points.
It has been an up-and-down season for both squads. The Vikings have had major issues on the offensive side of the ball, specifically at the quarterback position. The Cowboys have had zero problems putting up points, but they’ve given most of them back on defense. Dallas still has a slim 11% chance to make the postseason (via The Athletic’s playoff simulator), while the Vikings are basically out of it at 5-8.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The vast majority of the offensive firepower in this matchup comes from the Cowboys. That starts with quarterback Dak Prescott. He is perennially one of the most undervalued players in football, and he’s putting together another excellent statistical season. He leads the league in pass attempts, completions, and passing yards, and his average of 279.8 yards per game is the top mark in the league by nearly 20 yards. His 26 passing touchdowns are also tied for the second-most in the league, so he’s been as productive as just about anyone with his arm.
Prescott doesn’t give us much production with his legs, but he’s still been an excellent fantasy option for most of the season. Among QBs with at least three starts this season, he ranks third in fantasy points per game. Only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have been better, and Prescott has been particularly good of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games, including four straight.
Prescott will also be back at home this week, where he has historically thrived for his career. Specifically, Prescott has delivered big fantasy value as a home favorite. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.41 in that split, and he’s averaged nearly six additional fantasy points per game (per the Trends tool).
However, the Vikings do represent a very tough matchup. They have a solid defense and one of the best defensive coordinators in football, and that combination has resulted in the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Prescott has a -4.4 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the worst mark on this slate.
Still, Prescott stands out as the clear top target from a projections standpoint. He owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, and he ranks first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
CeeDee Lamb is the other stud option to consider, and he’s coming off back-to-back big games. He had seven catches for 112 yards and one touchdown two weeks ago vs. the Chiefs, and he followed that up with eight catches for 121 yards last week vs. the Lions. He racked up at least 21.1 PPR points in both outings, so he’s gotten back on track following a streak of four straight games with a negative Plus/Minus.
Lamb managed to find success last week despite exiting early with a concussion. He had just a 46% route participation, but he was targeted on 32% of his routes run. If he was able to go for the full 60 minutes, he could’ve been looking at a monster performance.
Lamb has a bit more competition for targets this year than in the past, but he still leads the team in most underlying metrics. Since returning to the lineup in Week 7, he’s posted a 26% target share, 36% air-yards share, and 36% end-zone share. Those aren’t quite elite numbers, but they’re still pretty darn good.
Unfortunately, the matchup for Lamb (and the rest of the Cowboys receivers) is just as poor as it is for Prescott. The Vikings have actually allowed the fewest PPR points per game to opposing receivers.
That said, Lamb still stands out as one of the top Captain options in Sim Labs. He has the second-highest optimal Captain rate, and he’s projected to be under-owned in that spot. His ownership projection greatly exceeds his optimal lineup rate in the Flex spot, so using him at Captain could be the best way to approach him in this contest.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
George Pickens is a bonafide stud receiver in his own right, and he’s formed a lethal 1A/1B combination with Lamb this season. He actually has the edge over Lamb in terms of fantasy scoring this season, but a lot of his production came when Lamb was sidelined.
He’s been a bit more “boom-or-bust” since his stud teammate returned. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his past seven games, but two of the hits were massive. He erupted for 32.4 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders, and he followed that up with 32.6 DraftKings points vs. the Eagles.
That arguably gives Pickens a higher ceiling than Lamb. That is reflected in our NFL Models, and he also has a slightly better projected Plus/Minus. Pickens also has higher optimal lineup rates at both Captain and the Flex spots, so he appears to be the superior option.
Pickens also has the edge in terms of correlation with Prescott. The two players have a mark of +0.59 on DraftKings, while Prescott and Lamb are at just +0.10. That makes him the clear preferred option in lineups that also feature the team’s stud QB.
Javonte Williams will continue to serve as the Cowboys’ top running back, just as he has for most of the year. He’s handled 77% of the team’s snaps and 71% of their designed rushing attempts, so he’s been a massive success for fantasy players who took a risk on him this offseason. Williams has responded with 16.2 PPR points per game, and he’s scored the seventh-most fantasy points at running back this season.
Unfortunately, his production has plateaued recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games after starting the year with a positive mark in six of his first eight. However, he’s still seeing plenty of volume. He’s actually increased his snap and carry share to 80% over his recent five-game skid; he simply hasn’t scored as much as he did to start the year. He has just two touchdowns over his past five outings after racking up nine scores in his first eight.
That means Williams still has plenty of upside. If he can get back in the end zone once or twice vs. the Vikings, he could easily be one of the top scorers on the slate. No one has a larger gap between projected ownership and optimal Captain rate, making him one of the best choices at that spot. The Vikings also haven’t been quite as good against RBs as they have against other positions, and they’re merely 20th in rush defense EPA.
J.J. McCarthy has had an interesting first season. He’s been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and when he has been available, he hasn’t been particularly impressive. He’s averaged just 4.52 adjusted yards per attempt this season, and he’s thrown 10 interceptions to just nine touchdown passes. Whether he’s an NFL-caliber starter is still very much to be determined.
However, McCarthy has delivered some sneaky fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in more than half of his starts, thanks partly to his rushing upside. He’s averaged just under 20 rushing yards per game, and he’s added two scores in his seven outings.
McCarthy has also proven he can take advantage of the right matchups. We saw that last week, when he finished with 20.42 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders. Dallas has been improved defensively since the trade deadline, but they’ve still allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season. McCarthy leads the slate with a +5.4 Opponent Plus/Minus, so he has plenty of viability on this slate.
It’s hard to say the same for McCarthy’s pass catchers. Justin Jefferson has been unable to overcome his team’s dismal QB play all year. He still has an excellent 30% target share for the season, but he’s slipped all the way to WR32 in terms of PPR points per game. He’s been even worse recently, finishing with single-digit PPR points in four of his past five contests.
The fact that Jefferson still struggled last week in a game where McCarthy was actually productive is a major red flag. Jefferson’s target share dipped to 18% in that contest, and he finished with a dismal two catches for 11 yards.
Jefferson is still one of the best receivers in football, and this is certainly a matchup he can take advantage of. The Cowboys have allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so Jefferson is capable of bouncing back. That said, it’s hard to have any confidence that it will actually happen.
While Jefferson’s role is on the decline, Jordan Addison appears to be on the way up. He’s had a target share of at least 32% in back-to-back games, earning 17 total targets over that time frame. That hasn’t translated to much real production, as he had just nine catches for 98 scoreless yards in those outings, but he’s getting more opportunities than Jefferson at a significantly cheaper price tag.
Jefferson ultimately still gets the edge in terms of raw projections, but Addison has the superior projected Plus/Minus. However, neither player is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a particularly high clip, so both guys are far from mandatory on this slate.
Unlike the Cowboys, the Vikings have used a committee approach at running back this season. Jordan Mason has seen 52% of the team’s designed rushing attempts, while Aaron Jones has been at 47%. However, Jones has handled more of the pass-catching responsibilities out of the team’s backfield. That has given him a slight edge in fantasy production, despite checking in at a cheaper price tag on DraftKings.
The split has also tilted more in Jones’ favor as the year has progressed. Jones has handled 56% of the team’s carries since Week 10, while Mason is at just 36%. The only reason Mason is more expensive is that he found the paint last week.
That stands out as a clear outlier. Jones has actually had the edge in short-yardage opportunities, and Mason’s TD came from eight yards out last week. It’s possible that Jones could get those opportunities vs. the Cowboys, pushing the needle even more in his favor.
Jake Ferguson rounds out this price range, and he is officially questionable with a calf injury. He’s expected to go barring a pregame setback, so make sure to monitor this situation leading into kickoff.
As long as Ferguson is out there, he has some appeal at his reduced price tag. His salary has come down nearly $1,000 compared to last week on DraftKings, but Ferguson remains a solid part of this passing attack. He owns a 19% target share for the year, and he’s seen at least six targets in three straight games.
Ferguson’s targets aren’t of the highest caliber, as he has just a measly 4.8-yard average depth of target, but he has the potential to make up for it by getting in the end zone. He has seven receiving scores for the year, and Minnesota has allowed 0.5 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. Brandon Aubrey has the top projected Plus/Minus of the group, while the Vikings Defense has the highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
- Ryan Flournoy ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Flournoy is coming off a huge game last week, finishing with 13 targets, nine receptions, 115 yards, and a score. Of course, his numbers were definitely inflated by Lamb exiting the game early. Still, Flournoy’s opportunities have been on the rise in recent weeks, and his showing vs. the Lions should only help solidify his spot as the Cowboys’ No. 3 receiver.
- T.J. Hockenson ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – It has been a nightmare season for Hockenson. He’s averaged just 7.8 PPR points per game, but he has been above that figure in two straight. He’s gotten cheap enough that he’s actually worth considering once again, especially against the Cowboys’ porous defense.
- KaVontae Turpin ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Turpin didn’t see nearly the same boost as Flournoy last week, and his role in the offense is pretty stable. He’s not going to be on the field a ton, but the Cowboys typically try to get the ball in his hands a couple of times per game.
- Jalen Nailor ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – McCarthy has been unable to support one receiver, let alone three. Nailor is the Vikings’ clear-cut No. 3 option at the position. He managed to get to a 16% target share and 6.0 PPR points last week, but he had just 2.6 total points over his previous three games combined.
- Josh Oliver ($2,800 DraftKings, $1,200 FanDuel) – Oliver managed two touchdown grabs last week, but the rest of his metrics are pretty underwhelming. He still had just a 9% target share in that contest, while his route participation was just 28%. Tight ends will always have some touchdown equity around the goal line, but a repeat feels very unlikely.
- Malik Davis ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Davis ripped off a nice TD run vs. the Chiefs on Thanksgiving, but he’s pretty much just a backup behind Williams. He’s had just 12% of the carries since taking over as the team’s No. 2 option, and he’s been at 2.7 DraftKings points or fewer in all but one game.
Pictured: Dak Prescott
Photo Credit: Lon Horwedel, Imagn
