The final UFC event of 2025 — and the ESPN era — is upon us. The 13-fight card goes down at 7:00 p.m. ET at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, headlined by flyweight contenders Brandon Royval and Manel Kape.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Manel Kape ($9,200) vs. Brandon Royval ($7,000)
The flyweight division is suddenly wide open after the shocking loss of long-running champion Alexandre Pantoja last weekend. That’s great news for Royval, who has two losses against the former champion — though he also lost a fight of the night to new champion Joshua Van.
Either way, that makes this a potential number-one contender fight for the flyweight title, assuming Pantoja isn’t able to return from his freak injury for an immediate rematch. At the very least, Kape would be on the short list for a title shot with a win, as he comes into the fight with consecutive finishes against (at the time) ranked opponents.
“Starboy” has power and submission skills, making him a potentially lucrative DFS option. However, Royval has only been finished twice in his career. One of those was a freak shoulder injury, and the other followed a fairly blatant eye poke, so he’s a tough man to (legally) put away.
Both men also average over five significant strikes per minute and fight at a blistering pace, so we could see big scores from both fighters. That makes this an obvious cash game stack and a potentially sneaky GPP one as well. At worst, I’ll have one member of this fight in all my lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Yaroslav Amosov ($9,400)
We don’t have any truly massive favorites on this slate, but the line movement this week has made Amosov just north of -400 as he makes his UFC debut against Neil Magny ($6,800), who will move to fourth place on the UFC’s all-time fight list with 37 appearances.
That’s a bit of a misleading detail, as Amosov is 28-1 as a pro and was the former Bellator welterweight champion, who was stuck in contract limbo when Bellator was purchased by the PFL. He’s fought just once since 2023, a first-round submission in March for CFFC over UFC veteran Curtis Millender.
Still just 32, he’s the rare fighter coming from another promotion still squarely in the prime of his career, while Magny is certainly past his at 38. However, “The Haitian Sensation” is on a two-fight winning streak, with a pair of upsets over Jake Matthews and Elizeu Zaleski. Magny’s last five losses have come to fighters ranked inside the UFC’s top seven, and the fifth was to former title challenger Gilbert Burns.
He’s effectively the line between the top 10 and everyone else, making him a perfect litmus test for Amosov. The newcomer should win the fight, but Magny is enough of a tough out that it’s not a sure thing, especially with the ring rust factor.
For that reason, I won’t go out of my way to get up to Amosov — especially in cash — but will mix him into my lineups where the salary is easy to come by.
The Upside Play
Kevin Vallejos ($9,100)
The co-main event on Saturday features surging prospect Kevin Vallejos taking on Giga Chikadze, a 37-year-old who once seemed like a future title challenger but has since lost two in a row after a period of inactivity due to multiple injuries.
Chikadze is a slick kickboxer who has never been knocked out (in the UFC), while Vallejos is a hyper-aggressive boxing-based fighter who just turned 24 this week. This is likely to be a war on the feet, as Vallejos’ considerable power meets the durability and defensive aptitude of Chikadze.
I’m interested in Vallejos as an upside play for two reasons. The first is his striking volume. Vallejos averages more than six significant strikes per minute, so he is capable of putting up big totals even without landing a knockdown. The other is his newfound interest in grappling — he landed a pair of takedowns in his last fight, a new wrinkle to his game that could be a huge advantage against Chikadze.
Chikadze is a former Glory kickboxer who struggles when forced to grapple, giving up three takedowns and more than six minutes of control time in his last fight. If Vallejos is continuing to improve in that area, it’s an obvious edge over the pure striker.
Plus, while Chikadze is yet to be knocked out in the UFC, the combination of his age, mileage, and massive weight cut means that streak might come to an end soon.
Updated on 12/12/25
The Value Play
Melissa Croden ($7,700)
Croden is a fairly obvious value play this weekend, with her moneyline odds dropping from +130 to +110 on DraftKings, and other books moving beyond that. She should, at worst, cost $200 more based on her winning odds, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the line continue to move. Plus, her fight with Luana Santos ($8,500) has some of the best odds on the slate to go all 15 minutes.
Beyond that, she was a DFS gold mine in her UFC debut. She picked up a third-round stoppage just two months ago, landing 99 significant strikes and a pair of takedowns. Croden has finished all seven of her pro wins, with six coming via knockout. She’s also seen a decision in both of her losses, giving her a nice floor/ceiling combination.
Santos is a step up in competition for Croden with a 4-1 UFC record, but those wins have been against fairly low-level opposition. At worst, we should get 15 minutes of Croden’s high work-rate style, but we also have a shot at getting a finish bonus from the underdog.
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The Contrarian Choice
Sean Sharaf ($7,300)
Sharaf is taking on Steven Asplund ($8,900), who made waves earlier this year both for his 16-second KO victory on the Contender Series as well as his offer to Dana White in his post-fight interview.
However, I’m not sold on Asplund just based on a quick knockout win over an opponent who came into the fight 3-0. Asplund looked much worse in his other high-level test prior to his debut, getting submitted in the second round by fellow future UFC fighter Denzel Freeman just over a year ago.
Sharaf, like Freeman, seems to have some grappling ability. He nearly finished Junior Tafa on the ground before gassing out in the second round of his UFC debut, which came on less than a week’s notice. His cardio might really be that bad, but there’s a solid chance he has way more gas in the tank with a full training camp — and with his UFC debut jitters behind him.
More importantly, he’s a much more well-rounded fighter than Asplund, a fairly sloppy volume striker. The obvious path forward for Sharaf here is to wrestle, which typically produces some solid DFS scores. He’s a risky pick, but my guess is he’ll come in with single-digit ownership, so it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
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The Swing Fight
Guilherme Pat ($8,600) vs. Allen Frye ($7,600)
I have no idea why this bout wasn’t featured on the Contender Series this summer, but the second fight of the night on Saturday features a pair of undefeated heavyweight prospects making their UFC debuts. Unsurprisingly, with -650 odds, it’s the fight on the slate likeliest to end inside the distance.
Both men seem fairly raw, with Pat holding just one win over an opponent with a winning record, and that opponent was just 301. Frye is coming off a win against UFC veteran (albeit barely) Justin Frazier, who was 12-3 when Frye finished him in the first round. He also hadn’t fought in more than six years, so that win also might not mean much.
This is a fight where anything can happen, and while Pat is the deserved favorite, he’s untested against even remotely stiff competition. If nothing else, Frye is at least a solid athlete, as a former D3 college basketball player. I’ll be somewhat above the field’s exposure on Frye, but with a relatively even mix of both in my GPP lineups.
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Pictured: Manel Kape
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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