The NFL playoffs are still more than a month away, but we’ll get an early look on Sunday night. The Chiefs and Texans will square off in a game with a definitely playoff feel. The winner of this contest will vastly improve their playoff odds, while the loser will be facing an uphill battle. The Chiefs are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 41.5 points.
The Chiefs have made it to seven straight AFC Championships, so the fact that they’re sitting at 6-6 stands out as a massive shock. This team has arguably the best QB/head coach duo in the league, and they still look like a top team on paper. They have the third-best yardage differential in football, and their expected record based on points scored sits at 7.9-4.1. The big difference between this year and previous ones has been a 1-6 record in one-score games. Can they turn it around before things are too late?
Meanwhile, the Texans are trending in the opposite direction. They’ve won four straight games and five of their past six, thanks mostly to an elite defense. They have friendly matchups vs. the Raiders and Cardinals following this contest, so a win vs. the Chiefs would do wonders for their outlook. The Athletic’s playoff simulator puts their odds at greater than 80% with a win, while they fall to roughly 45% with a loss.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There are only two studs to consider in this matchup, and both play for the Chiefs. Of course, everything in Kansas City starts with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has had a historic start to his career, and he’s turned in a nice statistical season in 2025-26. He’s had very little support from the run game, so most of the team’s production has had to come from him. Mahomes currently ranks second among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, trailing only Josh Allen.
As you might expect, the Chiefs have leaned heavily on their star quarterback. They rank first in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, and Mahomes has responded with 269.8 passing yards per game. While that’s not quite the 300+ he averaged in his prime, it still represents a solid increase over the past two seasons. Mahomes has also racked up 22 touchdown passes, which ranks fifth in the league.
Mahomes has also used his legs more this year than he has in the past. He’s averaging a career-high 29.0 rushing yards per game, and he’s punched in a career-best four scores. That’s given him just a bit of added upside for fantasy purposes, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but three games this year.
However, Mahomes will have to navigate one of the toughest possible matchups this week. The Texans have arguably the best defense in football, and they’re first in the league in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers, and Mahomes’ -3.8 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark on the slate. The last time we saw Mahomes vs. an elite defense, he finished with just 14.34 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos.
The good news is that this game will at least take place in Kansas City. Mahomes has been nails in his six home starts this season, posting a +4.52 average Plus/Minus with an 83% Consistency Rating (per the Trends tool). He’s averaged better than 25 DraftKings points per game in that split, and his low mark was still 21.08 DraftKings points vs. the Colts.
Ultimately, Mahomes still grades out as the top option on the slate, despite the tough matchup. He ranks first in median and ceiling projection, as well as projected Plus/Minus.
Rashee Rice is Mahomes’ top pass-catcher, and he’s actually the most expensive option on this slate. It’s hard to argue against that too much. When Rice has been on the field this season, he’s been pretty dominant. He’s averaged 21.8 PPR points across his six starts, which is the top mark at receiver this season.
Rice can beat teams in a variety of ways. He has five touchdowns in his six outings, including two multi-score games. He’s also a threat to rack up yards and catches. He’s posted a 28% target share across his six contests, and that number could be on the rise. Rice posted a season-high 93% route participation in his last outing, and his target share increased to 38% as a result. If Rice becomes a more full-time player moving forward, he has outstanding upside.
Rice has logged 12 targets in back-to-back games, and he has the potential to find success in this matchup. Pairing him with Mahomes is difficult, but doing so makes a lot of sense. The two players have a correlation of +0.78, which is outstanding even for a QB-WR1 combo.
Rice also stands out in Sim Labs. He has the top optimal lineup rate at Captain and in the Flex spot, and he’s expected to be the most under-owned Captain on the slate. He’s projected Captain ownership is roughly 6.5% lower than his optimal rate, so he’s an excellent option in that spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Texans also have a potential stud receiver in Nico Collins. He hasn’t been quite as effective as Rice this season, but he still ranks 10th at the position in PPR points per game.
Collins’ stock is also on the rise. He has just a 25% target share for the year, but he was at 30% in his last outing. He’s up to 27% over his past five games, and he’s scored more than 20 DraftKings points in three of his past four.
The matchup for Collins also isn’t quite as daunting. While the Chiefs don’t have a bad defense, they’re not necessarily a unit you need to fear, either. They’ve allowed the 15th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and we saw both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have success against them on Thanksgiving.
Collins has been priced as high as $11,600 this season, so getting him at $9,600 feels like a solid discount. Only Rice has a higher optimal lineup rate at Flex, while only Rice and Mahomes have higher marks at the Captain spot.
C.J. Stroud made his return to the lineup last week after missing the Texans’ past three games. While he was able to lead the team to a victory, his performance left a lot to be desired. He finished with 276 scoreless yards and one interception, resulting in just 10.04 DraftKings points. For the year, Stroud has averaged just 15.1 fantasy points per game, good for the 24th-best mark at quarterback.
However, Stroud had been playing better before suffering his injury. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of four games from Weeks 4 through 8, including two games with more than 25 DraftKings points. While he wasn’t able to get the ball in the end zone last week, his 276 passing yards were still more than good enough.
If he can add a few touchdowns to his ledger in Week 14, there’s no reason he can’t provide some fantasy value. He has the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and he ranks fifth in projected Plus/Minus.
Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ other top pass-catcher. While he’s not the same player that he was in his prime, he’s still getting the job done for fantasy players. He’s the No. 4 TE in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s scored at least 12.6 DraftKings points in four of his past five. He’s posted a healthy 21% target share over that time frame, and he’s always a threat to score a touchdown.
Unfortunately, the Texans have been very tough on tight ends this season. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to the position, and Kelce’s price tag has gotten a bit expensive. He was priced at just $7,000 on Thanksgiving, but he’s all the way up to $8,800 vs. the Texans.
That makes him tough to get excited about. He has the second-worst projected Plus/Minus among relevant players on DraftKings, so he’s not a particularly strong option. He also has a negative correlation with Mahomes, which makes him a subpar stacking candidate as well.
Woody Marks has taken over as the Texans’ clear-cut No. 1 running back. He’s played on 68% of the team’s offensive snaps over the past four games, and he’s handled 68% of the team’s rushing attempts over that time frame.
However, that hasn’t led to much fantasy production. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight, and he’s failed to crack 7.9 DraftKings points.
That stems primarily from his role in the passing attack. Marks has been targeted on 14% of his routes for the year, but that figure has dipped to 8% over his past four outings. His overall target share has slid to just 4% in those games. If Marks doesn’t get more involved as a pass-catcher moving forward, it’s tough to consider him a startable fantasy running back.
The matchup vs. the Chiefs is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the Chiefs haven’t been great against the run this season, ranking 22nd in rush defense EPA. On the other hand, the Chiefs have done a good job of limiting fantasy points to opposing RBs. They’ve surrendered the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Add in the fact that the Texans are slight underdogs, and it doesn’t appear to be a strong spot for Marks on paper.
Kareem Hunt has served as the Chiefs’ top running back. Isiah Pacheco did return to the lineup last week, and it’s possible that he takes on a slightly larger role moving forward. That said, Hunt still had 67% of the snaps and 70% of the carries. That includes the majority of the short-yardage opportunities.
Hunt is not a particularly explosive runner at this point, but he has done a decent job of falling into the end zone. He has five scores in his past five games, and as long as he maintains the goal line role, he’s the Chiefs’ RB to consider for fantasy purposes.
Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs’ No. 2 receiver, and he has been a clear disappointment for fantasy purposes. He stood out toward the end of last season, but he has struggled to earn targets with Rice on the field. He has just an 18% target share in Rice’s six outings, and he’s been below 20% in each of his past three games.
Still, Worthy is on the field as much as any receiver in Kansas City, and he brings plenty of big-play upside to the table. We saw a bit of that last week, with Worthy catching a 42-yard pass. He’s scored at least 9.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and if he can add a touchdown to the equation in Week 14, he could be a nice value at his current salary.
The Texans use a bit of a committee at WR2, but Jayden Higgins has started to separate a bit from the rest of the pack. He’s scored at least 9.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six outings, and he’s cracked double-digits in three of his past four. He’s been targeted on 29% of his routes run over his past four contests, including a 21% mark last week.
That gives Higgins some hidden upside. If he sees a few more routes in Week 14, his target share could creep up towards 25%.
Dalton Schultz has been a viable fantasy starter at tight end recently. He’s finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in four of the past five weeks, and he played well in Stroud’s return to the lineup last week. He saw eight targets – good for a 23% target share overall – and he caught seven passes for 55 yards. He grades out as one of the best options in this price range.
Hollywood Brown rounds out this price range, and he’s seen a significant reduction in value with the receiving corps at full strength. He has a target share below 10% in four of his past five games, and his route participation has been below 50% in six straight. He’s managed to stave off regression with a combination of touchdowns and big plays, but that doesn’t feel sustainable. Brown can be used as a part of Chiefs’ stacks, but that’s where most of his appeal comes from.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Chiefs Defense has the best projected Plus/Minus of the group, while the Texans Defense has the top optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
- Isiah Pacheco ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – It will be interesting to see what Pacheco’s workload looks like this week. He had just a 27% snap share in his first game back, and he handled just 16% of the carries. Those numbers could take a slight step forward, but he still figures to be squarely behind Hunt in the pecking order.
- Nick Chubb ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Chubb has moved into the clear No. 2 role in the Texans’ backfield. His value will pretty much be determined exclusively by whether or not he scores a TD. He managed to do that last week, but he had 2.5 DraftKings points or fewer in his two previous games without a score.
- Christian Kirk ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) – Kirk had just a 45% route participation last week, and he failed to earn a single target. However, he was on the field for a similar amount of snaps the previous week and logged a 21% target share. That gives him a wide range of outcomes.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Hutchinson has been the Texans’ No. 3 receiver from a routes standpoint of late, and he had 20% of the targets and 33% of the air yards last week. He’s had five targets in two of his past three games, so he also has some appeal in this price range.
- Tyquan Thornton ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Thornton’s role for the Chiefs has all but dried up. He might still see one target – and that target could come well downfield – but that’s not particularly appealing against the Texans’ elite defense.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster has scored less than two PPR points in four straight games. It seems his run of relevance with the Chiefs has come to a close.
- Noah Gray ($1,800 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) – Gray might be the best of the Chiefs’ punt plays. He’s on the field for a decent chunk of snaps, and he’s seen at least three targets in three of his past four. He’s yet to score this season, but he had five touchdowns last year. It feels like he’s due.
- Cade Stover ($1,600 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Stover isn’t on the field much for the Texans, but he was targeted on 33% of his routes run last week. He had a 22% mark the week prior, so he’s a threat for a couple of catches.
- Jaylin Noel ($1,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Noel stands out as an interesting punt play at just $1,000 on DraftKings. He wasn’t targeted last week, but he was still on the field a decent bit. He showed some promise earlier this season, so he’s an interesting bounce-back candidate.
Pictured: Rashee Rice
Photo Credit: Imagn
