The last PPV event of the year — and perhaps ever — is upon us. The UFC’s final numbered event on their ESPN broadcast deal includes title fights in the men’s flyweight and bantamweight divisions, as Merab Dvalishvili looks to make history with his fourth title defense of 2025.
The 14-fight card locks at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,500) vs. Petr Yan ($6,700)
Merab Dvalishvili is the greatest DFS fighter of all time. That was never more evident than in his most recent title defense, where he set the record for all-time fantasy points with 219.5, racking up an absurd 20 takedowns in his win against Cory Sandhagen. This time around he draws a rematch with Petr Yan, whom he defeated shortly before winning the title. In that meeting, he landed “only” 11 takedowns, finishing north of 165 DraftKings points.
Frankly, it’s hard to see this one being much different. That fight was only two and a half years ago, and Dvalishvili has somehow continued to improve each fight. While Yan has as well, the noncompetitive nature of the first bout makes it hard to find too much optimism.
That is, unless Dvalishvili’s frenetic schedule catches up to him. When he makes the walk on Saturday he’ll be the first fighter to even attempt to defend a UFC title four times in a calendar year, much less win them all. We’ve seen that kind of pace catch up to other active champions, notably Alex Pereira.
The other good news for Yan is that he managed to put up 40 points in his previous loss to the champion, which you’d be happy with at his salary in cash games. If he’s even slightly more competitive, he could even sneak into the optimal in a loss.
I’m not banking on that, so I won’t have much of him in GPPs, but this is my priority stack of the two title fights on the night. Merab is a must-play in all contest types, and the fight has the best odds on the slate to go the distance, giving Yan a strong floor.
Co-Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja ($9,000) vs. Josh Van ($7,200)
The co-main event between Alexandre Pantoja and Josh Van for the flyweight title is the more interesting decision point for GPPs. The betting line is much closer between the two fighters, but the fight is also favored to end inside the distance — with both men having a viable path to a stoppage.
Pantoja is an elite grappler. While he lacks the takedown upside of Dvalishvili, he’s finished eight of his UFC wins, including submission victories in each of his last two title defenses. If Josh Van has a glaring weakness, it’s his grappling, as he’s been taken down by the last three fighters who attempted at least one.
On the Van side, he has massive power for the flyweight division and lands nearly nine significant strikes per minute. That sets him up nicely against Pantoja, who has a sub-50% significant strike defense rate in the UFC. The champion has never been finished, but he’s old for the division at 35 and has taken plenty of damage across his career.
With all that said, I’ll be coming down mostly on the side of Pantoja. While Van might still be a future champion, the 25-year-old still has some holes in his game to fill, and I’m not sure how his high-volume style translates to his first-ever five-round fight. This isn’t a bad cash game stack, as Van’s output could lead to a strong score even in a loss, but it’s not necessarily a priority for me either.
The Easy Chalk
Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,800)
It seems like most weeks we have a highly touted prospect who comes in at better than -1000 odds, and this week it’s Mansur Abdul-Malik’s turn. His moneyline is somewhere between -1300 and -1500 throughout the market and has only grown throughout the week.
As always, the question with massive favorites isn’t if they’ll have a good score; it’s whether they can produce the huge score necessary to make the optimal lineup at their price tag. Abdul-Malik hasn’t always lived up to his hype, with two of his three UFC appearances going for less than 100 DraftKings points.
However, he might have the easiest matchup of his career at UFC 323. He’s taking on Antonio Trocoli ($6,400), who is 0-2 in the UFC with both losses coming inside the distance and hasn’t won a fight in more than four years. He’s also more focused on his poker career than fighting — which is probably a good choice given his relative success in both ventures.
Abdul-Malik is a -120 favorite to pick up a win in the first round, which he’ll almost certainly need — plus at least one knockdown or takedown — to make the optimal lineup. Given all the likely finishes on the card, his path is harder at his salary, but he’s a reasonably safe bet for around 100 points. That makes him a great cash game play if you can find the salary, and I’ll have a few GPP lineups with him as well.
The Upside Play
Iwo Baraniewski ($8,800)
Iwo Baraniewski left quite an impression on the Contender Series when he knocked out the toughest opponent of his career, Mahamed Aly, in just 20 seconds. While it’s hard to learn much in 20 seconds, the Polish prospect is more than just a power puncher.
Baraniewski comes from a judo background and has won national championships in Poland in both judo and nogi submission grappling. Prior to turning pro in MMA in 2023, he also won two international amateur MMA world championships. That gives him a level of combat sports experience far beyond what his 6-0 record indicates.
I believe he’s the much more well-rounded fighter in his matchup against Ibo Aslan ($7,400), who has gone 2-2 in the UFC with his two wins coming against fighters no longer in the promotion. Aslan has big power but not much else, with all 14 of his wins coming via knockout but a limited ability to win minutes if he can’t finish his opponent.
Look for Baraniewski to mix in some grappling here, which gives him some solid upside beyond his -145 stoppage odds.
Bogdan Guskov ($7,800)
Bogdan Guskov is taking on former champion Jan Blachowicz ($8,400), in what is a huge step up on paper for Guskov. However, Blachowicz will turn 43 years old in February and hasn’t won a fight in three and a half years. Since then, he’s had multiple shoulder surgeries and a significant neck injury, and it wouldn’t shock me if he retires following this fight.
None of that is a good sign for Blachowicz, especially against a man nearly ten years his junior who is still looking to establish himself as a contender. Guskov has gone 4-0 with four straight finishes since dropping his short-notice UFC debut and has finished all 18 of his professional wins.
If this is really the end for Blachowicz, it could come quickly, as Guskov has enough power to end things in a hurry. With where Blachowicz is in his career at this point, that feels like the likeliest outcome, and getting a finish from a $7,800 fighter would almost certainly see him land in the optimal.
Updated on 12/5/25
The Value Play
Brandon Moreno ($7,700)
UFC 323 hasn’t seen much line movement since DFS salaries came out, in part because the UFC’s week off for Thanksgiving meant lines had already been up for weeks prior to DraftKings dropping salaries.
One of the few spots that has seen some notable movement is the fight between Moreno and Tatsuro Taira ($8,500), with Moreno moving from a +120 underdog on Monday to somewhere between +100 and +105 on Friday morning. More importantly, this is the fight outside of the main event with the best odds to go all 15 minutes.
All of which makes Moreno the classic cash game salary saver. His odds of winning are better than his price tag implies, and even in a loss he likely gets 15 minutes to work. While I don’t expect Moreno to grapple much in this matchup, his pace and pressure striking style should lead to solid significant strike numbers. He’s also never been finished despite fighting the division’s best for the better part of a decade, giving him a rock-solid floor.
With all of the likely finishes on this card, I’m not especially interested in Moreno for GPPs, but he’s an obviously strong play for cash games.
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The Contrarian Choice
Payton Talbott ($9,200)
Like Guskov, Payton Talbott is fighting a former champion on the last legs of their career, with Henry Cejudo ($7,000) announcing that his fight against Talbott will be his last — though this won’t be the first “retirement” for the 2008 Olympic gold medalist.
Still, Cejudo is 38, which is roughly 45 in bantamweight years, and hasn’t won a fight since 2020. He’s also looked progressively worse in each appearance, culminating in a loss to Song Yadong in February in which Cejudo went zero for three on takedowns.
Like Yadong, Talbott is a taller, rangier striker who could also prevent takedowns by managing the distance. He’s also a dangerous finisher, with extremely well-timed and precise strikes that have earned him seven knockouts in ten pro wins. While Cejudo is relatively durable overall, there’s a very good chance his chin isn’t what it once was.
This fight is favored to go all 15 minutes, and the line has moved towards Cejudo, so odds are we get Talbott at very little ownership. He could be the key to unlocking the slate if he picks up a stoppage, so I’ll have a healthy dose of him in my GPP lineups.
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The Swing Fight
Chris Duncan ($8,600) vs. Terrance McKinney ($7,600)
Terrance McKinney is a swing fight personified. All 11 of his UFC fights have ended inside the distance, with only two of those making it out of the first round. The epitome of a “get or get got” fighter, it’s a safe bet that somebody is putting up a big fantasy score in his fights — but it’s hard to say who it will be.
He has a willing dance partner this time in Chris Duncan, who has had three of his four fights end inside the distance, and the outlier being an absolute war that won fight of the night and probably took years off both fighters’ lives. Against a glass cannon like McKinney, a similar fight almost certainly ends with somebody unconscious.
With the uncertainty involved in this contest, I’ll be staying far away from it in cash games, as I don’t have a particularly strong lead towards either fighter. However, for GPPs I want as close to 100% exposure as possible, likely with a slight lean towards McKinney since his lighter salary makes him easier to fit into lineups.
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Pictured: Merab Dvalishvili
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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